Thu, Jul 13 2017, 6:17 PM
Take market analysis with a grain of salt today. To a much greater extent than yesterday, market-watchers would have to dig to connect the dots bet...
Thu, Jul 13 2017, 8:56 AM
For the entire first quarter of 2017, bonds held inside a range from roughly 2.30 to 2.60 in terms of 10yr yields. This was the purgatory we occupi...
Wed, Jul 12 2017, 5:20 PM
" Support " and " resistance " are two terms often thrown around in market analysis. They loosely refer to ceilings and floors respectively (as far a...
Wed, Jul 12 2017, 9:01 AM
Global bond markets have been on the run since June 27th , when Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank, or ECB) said deflation was being rep...
Tue, Jul 11 2017, 4:41 PM
Quite simply, markets are waiting for the last 3 days of this week before gleaning any "takeaways" about the current state of financial markets, the e...
Tue, Jul 11 2017, 9:17 AM
Bond markets (and stocks for that matter) have been stuck in narrow, sideways ranges over the past 4 trading sessions. This is a major departure fr...
Mon, Jul 10 2017, 5:57 PM
Bond markets were exceptionally quiet today. Even though trading levels were technically stronger than Friday, 10yr yields have remained in the sam...
Mon, Jul 10 2017, 9:51 AM
This week's economic calendar is fairly light, with no top tier reports until Thursday (Producer Prices) and Friday (CPI/Retail Sales). For what it's...
Fri, Jul 7 2017, 4:48 PM
NFP Friday is an institution for financial markets and especially the bond market. No other piece of monthly economic consistently has as big of an...
Fri, Jul 7 2017, 8:25 AM
"NFP doesn't matter." These are bold words at times, a no-brainer at others, and a lucky guess most of the time. While NFP matters greatly in gener...
Thu, Jul 6 2017, 4:30 PM
We ended yesterday with a glimmer of hope for an end to the recent uptrend in rates. Even so, the modest gains were scarcely enough to defeat that ...
Thu, Jul 6 2017, 9:26 AM
Treasuries were pummelled well before most domestic traders' left for the office this morning. 10yr yields were up to 2.37% (more than 4bps higher) b...
Wed, Jul 5 2017, 5:01 PM
Bond markets found their f irst green day since June 27th today and for no particular reason apart from today being the first full trading day in Jul...
Wed, Jul 5 2017, 9:08 AM
Today is light in terms of scheduled economic data and events. This will change rapidly over the next 2 days (ADP/ISM services tomorrow, followed...
Mon, Jul 3 2017, 3:02 PM
Bond markets closed early today (2pm ET) in observance of tomorrow's Independence Day holiday (and will be fully closed tomorrow). Fans of low rates ...
Mon, Jul 3 2017, 9:39 AM
Every Friday, the CFTC issues a report on trading position in Treasury Futures (and everything else in the commodities futures/options complex). Here'...
Fri, Jun 30 2017, 4:53 PM
There is month-end bond buying and then there is month-end "position-squaring." These are 2 different things. Month-end bond-buying refers specifica...
Fri, Jun 30 2017, 9:11 AM
With bond yields so clearly lifting-off from their recent trend, today should be just another day to consider our relative demise. Being bullish on...
Thu, Jun 29 2017, 4:57 PM
If you follow equities markets much, you know that today was pretty ugly --especially for the tech sector. In fact, most equities analysts are blami...
Thu, Jun 29 2017, 9:29 AM
Even yesterday, the situation was already getting serious for bond markets given our past encounters with hints of tapering from major central banks. ...
Wed, Jun 28 2017, 5:31 PM
Today began in hilarious and somewhat glorious fashion with unnamed "ECB sources" overtly doing damage control on Draghi's comments that rocked bond...
Wed, Jun 28 2017, 9:19 AM
Seemingly overnight (in fact, it WAS overnight yesterday), the notion of a European taper tantrum burst on the scene following comments from ECB Pre...
Tue, Jun 27 2017, 4:59 PM
Bond markets got sucker-punched today. Traders were on the lookout for Yellen's comments at a conference in London in the afternoon. Instead it wa...
Tue, Jun 27 2017, 9:26 AM
Members of the FOMC are constantly giving speeches and making appearances at various events. The only exception would be the "blackout period" where ...
Mon, Jun 26 2017, 5:35 PM
Despite a super narrow range throughout the day, last Friday saw 10yr yields close at the 2nd best levels of the year. With that in mind, it wouldn'...
Mon, Jun 26 2017, 9:37 AM
Whereas the previous week was generally devoid of significant economic data or market moving events, the current week is more of a contender. On the ...
Fri, Jun 23 2017, 5:32 PM
We've been watching the intraday trading ranges in bond markets to keep an eye on just how flat things have been in the wake of last Wednesday's big t...
Fri, Jun 23 2017, 8:59 AM
You've heard of "innocent until proven guilty." This week of trading in bond markets has been "flat and boring until proven volatile." For many, i...
Thu, Jun 22 2017, 4:43 PM
Yesterday's recap went into some detail about the market phenomenon that can result in intense periods of sideways momentum (and trader apathy) duri...
Thu, Jun 22 2017, 8:53 AM
With the trading activity seen in the wake of last Wednesday's high-volume/high-movement day, it's clear that bond markets have been in a holding patt...
Wed, Jun 21 2017, 4:50 PM
With the taper tantrum in 2013 and Brexit in 2016, two of our most recent examples of summertime bond trading have been pulled very far from historica...
Wed, Jun 21 2017, 9:17 AM
Here we are again with oil falling into new lows for the year and suddenly, it's the inspiration for everything according to most mainstream financial...
Tue, Jun 20 2017, 4:54 PM
Today had no significant news or events on the calendar, thus leaving traders to watch other traders for cues. To some extent, several Fed speakers g...
Tue, Jun 20 2017, 9:08 AM
The week continues to offer little by way of scheduled economic data/events to stir the pot, thus leaving us to observe the underlying biases among tr...
Mon, Jun 19 2017, 5:06 PM
Right out of the gate this morning, NY Fed President William Dudley set a rather negative tone for bond markets with several comments that essentially...
Mon, Jun 19 2017, 9:40 AM
The past 3 trading sessions marked 3 of the 5 lowest closes for 10yr yields in 2017. Friday's strength did a nice job of pushing back against a poten...
Fri, Jun 16 2017, 5:04 PM
Today was destined to be a sideways grind at slightly weaker levels for bond markets. This would have extended the theme that had been in place sin...
Fri, Jun 16 2017, 9:09 AM
Bond markets may not give a stellar performance today, offering resounding confirmation of an ongoing rally. Conversely, they're not likely to rise e...
Thu, Jun 15 2017, 4:26 PM
To be fair to the Fed, they didn't really cause most of today's weakness. Bond markets already showed their hand with respect to yesterday's Fed ev...
Thu, Jun 15 2017, 9:34 AM
Yesterday's rally was a potential game changer for the "great push back" of 2017 . That's not the official term for the past several months of gener...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 5:34 PM
In a weird way, today's Fed announcement came out right at 8:30am when Core CPI dropped to 1.7%, falling well short of the 1.9% median forecast (year-...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 2:03 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March May indicates that the...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 8:32 AM
If you follow bond market movement for long enough, one thing becomes clear above all others: the Fed is the most reliable explanation for shifts in m...
Tue, Jun 13 2017, 4:55 PM
The past 3 trading sessions have largely represented a consolidation in prices and yields, just off the best levels of the year. There has certainl...
Tue, Jun 13 2017, 8:47 AM
While we do have some economic data to get through today (Producer Prices, which are already out stronger than expected, and the afternoon's 30yr bond...
Mon, Jun 12 2017, 5:16 PM
Today's bond trading was largely a story of the 3yr Treasury auction vs the 10yr Treasury auction. Both of these are used to encountering each other ...
Mon, Jun 12 2017, 9:10 AM
It would be miraculous to see bond markets escape this week without experiencing some sort of reaction to the plethora of data and scheduled events. ...
Fri, Jun 9 2017, 5:20 PM
Yesterday's recap was titled "Surprising (or Not?) Absence of Volatility." Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice... won't be fooled again.
The ...
Fri, Jun 9 2017, 9:02 AM
All of our high-risk events for this week have come and gone, and bond markets aren't able to justify the stronger "lead-off" levels that marked the p...
Thu, Jun 8 2017, 4:55 PM
Perhaps it had to do with yesterday's 1st round of Senate testimony or Comey's prepared remarks giving bond markets an unfriendly bump, but bonds ende...
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