Mon, Jul 31 2017, 5:19 PM
Today's economic data consisted only of Chicago PMI (sometimes a decent market mover) and Pending Home Sales (rarely a noticeable market mover). It a...
Mon, Jul 31 2017, 9:09 AM
Last Friday's AM commentary had a detailed write-up on the significance of " month-end bond buying ." Here's a link to that, and here's a link to our ...
Fri, Jul 28 2017, 6:30 PM
Overnight weakness almost ruined it, but 10yr yields just barely held inside the necessary levels to claim their third straight "inside day." In ot...
Fri, Jul 28 2017, 10:05 AM
We often talk about the month-end trading environment as relatively more supportive for bond markets--all other things being equal. Reason for this a...
Thu, Jul 27 2017, 4:41 PM
This week continues to be all about Tuesday for bond markets. That was the day with the rather violent, inexplicable sell-off that took yields from...
Thu, Jul 27 2017, 9:40 AM
What is a tradeflow? We have a primer that attempts to answer that question on MBS Live (this one), but even after reading that multiple times, you ...
Wed, Jul 26 2017, 6:44 PM
Today's focus was understandably on the Fed Announcement, and indeed, most of the movement followed it. But interestingly enough, the biggest volume ...
Wed, Jul 26 2017, 2:02 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the ...
Wed, Jul 26 2017, 9:43 AM
Remember 2015? The Fed spent the whole year talking about hiking rates for the first after spending years at 0% and ultimately didn't get around to i...
Tue, Jul 25 2017, 4:24 PM
Bonds sold off aggressively today, for a combination of reasons that are tremendously unsatisfying in a traditional market-watching sense. For exam...
Tue, Jul 25 2017, 9:21 AM
After enjoying a nice rally since July 10th, bond markets are taking the 2 days leading up to tomorrow's Fed announcement to book some profits and get...
Mon, Jul 24 2017, 5:18 PM
How's that for an exciting headline? At least it's an " extreme ," technically--just not the sort of extreme that would pique our interest (but still...
Mon, Jul 24 2017, 10:03 AM
In March 2011, the Fed announced it would change things up with respect to its policy announcements. Although there would still be 8 of them each yea...
Fri, Jul 21 2017, 6:09 PM
As expected, today could be better characterized as a highly-regulated narcotic sleep aid than an interesting trading day for bond markets. The dream...
Fri, Jul 21 2017, 9:29 AM
One of the hallmarks of classic (read: old school) technical analysis is the role of volume in confirming market movements. For instance, if 10yr y...
Thu, Jul 20 2017, 7:06 PM
Talk about your anticlimactic conclusions! It's not that the European Central Bank (ECB) was likely to make any meaningful changes in its policy stan...
Thu, Jul 20 2017, 8:33 AM
Mario Draghi is the President of the European Central Bank (ECB). That's the EU's version of the Fed. Like the Fed in the past, the ECB is still ad...
Wed, Jul 19 2017, 5:56 PM
Much has been made of tomorrow's European Central Bank (ECB) Announcement, mainly because of its proximity to ECB President Draghi's comments on June ...
Wed, Jul 19 2017, 9:41 AM
This commentary will begin it's life as the "day ahead" entry for July 19th, 2017, but it may as well be a "knowledge base" entry for the validity of ...
Tue, Jul 18 2017, 4:45 PM
If there is one thematic event at the heart of the past 4 weeks, it was a series of comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi b...
Tue, Jul 18 2017, 9:12 AM
It remains the case that Thursday is the focal point of the week, with European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi set to tell reporters how fa...
Mon, Jul 17 2017, 4:57 PM
Today was an exceptionally light day in terms of news, volume, participation, and everything else we normally care about when it comes to market mov...
Mon, Jul 17 2017, 9:18 AM
It's the middle of summertime, the middle of a month, and there's a light economic and event calendar in the US. These are prime conditions for tra...
Fri, Jul 14 2017, 4:58 PM
Today was bittersweet for bond markets, with strong gains in the morning, and an almost complete reversal by the end of the day. As expected, the e...
Fri, Jul 14 2017, 8:59 AM
Today begins with weaker economic data helping bonds move into stronger territory. Investors had been eagerly awaiting the Retail Sales and CPI data ...
Thu, Jul 13 2017, 6:17 PM
Take market analysis with a grain of salt today. To a much greater extent than yesterday, market-watchers would have to dig to connect the dots bet...
Thu, Jul 13 2017, 8:56 AM
For the entire first quarter of 2017, bonds held inside a range from roughly 2.30 to 2.60 in terms of 10yr yields. This was the purgatory we occupi...
Wed, Jul 12 2017, 5:20 PM
" Support " and " resistance " are two terms often thrown around in market analysis. They loosely refer to ceilings and floors respectively (as far a...
Wed, Jul 12 2017, 9:01 AM
Global bond markets have been on the run since June 27th , when Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank, or ECB) said deflation was being rep...
Tue, Jul 11 2017, 4:41 PM
Quite simply, markets are waiting for the last 3 days of this week before gleaning any "takeaways" about the current state of financial markets, the e...
Tue, Jul 11 2017, 9:17 AM
Bond markets (and stocks for that matter) have been stuck in narrow, sideways ranges over the past 4 trading sessions. This is a major departure fr...
Mon, Jul 10 2017, 5:57 PM
Bond markets were exceptionally quiet today. Even though trading levels were technically stronger than Friday, 10yr yields have remained in the sam...
Mon, Jul 10 2017, 9:51 AM
This week's economic calendar is fairly light, with no top tier reports until Thursday (Producer Prices) and Friday (CPI/Retail Sales). For what it's...
Fri, Jul 7 2017, 4:48 PM
NFP Friday is an institution for financial markets and especially the bond market. No other piece of monthly economic consistently has as big of an...
Fri, Jul 7 2017, 8:25 AM
"NFP doesn't matter." These are bold words at times, a no-brainer at others, and a lucky guess most of the time. While NFP matters greatly in gener...
Thu, Jul 6 2017, 4:30 PM
We ended yesterday with a glimmer of hope for an end to the recent uptrend in rates. Even so, the modest gains were scarcely enough to defeat that ...
Thu, Jul 6 2017, 9:26 AM
Treasuries were pummelled well before most domestic traders' left for the office this morning. 10yr yields were up to 2.37% (more than 4bps higher) b...
Wed, Jul 5 2017, 5:01 PM
Bond markets found their f irst green day since June 27th today and for no particular reason apart from today being the first full trading day in Jul...
Wed, Jul 5 2017, 9:08 AM
Today is light in terms of scheduled economic data and events. This will change rapidly over the next 2 days (ADP/ISM services tomorrow, followed...
Mon, Jul 3 2017, 3:02 PM
Bond markets closed early today (2pm ET) in observance of tomorrow's Independence Day holiday (and will be fully closed tomorrow). Fans of low rates ...
Mon, Jul 3 2017, 9:39 AM
Every Friday, the CFTC issues a report on trading position in Treasury Futures (and everything else in the commodities futures/options complex). Here'...
Fri, Jun 30 2017, 4:53 PM
There is month-end bond buying and then there is month-end "position-squaring." These are 2 different things. Month-end bond-buying refers specifica...
Fri, Jun 30 2017, 9:11 AM
With bond yields so clearly lifting-off from their recent trend, today should be just another day to consider our relative demise. Being bullish on...
Thu, Jun 29 2017, 4:57 PM
If you follow equities markets much, you know that today was pretty ugly --especially for the tech sector. In fact, most equities analysts are blami...
Thu, Jun 29 2017, 9:29 AM
Even yesterday, the situation was already getting serious for bond markets given our past encounters with hints of tapering from major central banks. ...
Wed, Jun 28 2017, 5:31 PM
Today began in hilarious and somewhat glorious fashion with unnamed "ECB sources" overtly doing damage control on Draghi's comments that rocked bond...
Wed, Jun 28 2017, 9:19 AM
Seemingly overnight (in fact, it WAS overnight yesterday), the notion of a European taper tantrum burst on the scene following comments from ECB Pre...
Tue, Jun 27 2017, 4:59 PM
Bond markets got sucker-punched today. Traders were on the lookout for Yellen's comments at a conference in London in the afternoon. Instead it wa...
Tue, Jun 27 2017, 9:26 AM
Members of the FOMC are constantly giving speeches and making appearances at various events. The only exception would be the "blackout period" where ...
Mon, Jun 26 2017, 5:35 PM
Despite a super narrow range throughout the day, last Friday saw 10yr yields close at the 2nd best levels of the year. With that in mind, it wouldn'...
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