Wed, Nov 15 2017, 8:24 AM
Bonds begin the day much-improved from yesterday's levels, effectively showing their hand ahead of today's important economic data. In other words, t...
Tue, Nov 14 2017, 4:47 PM
The past two sessions have been fairly nondescript in the bigger picture. Both have traversed almost exactly the same trading range. Both have ex...
Tue, Nov 14 2017, 9:45 AM
Bond markets are starting the day in fairly similar territory to Friday's latest levels for the 2nd day in a row. As I said yesterday, this is a prec...
Mon, Nov 13 2017, 5:53 PM
For the first time since 2006, market participants didn't get a weekday off for Veterans Day. For all intents and purposes, traders ended up taking t...
Mon, Nov 13 2017, 9:31 AM
Sorry Kansans. Another false alarm where your home state was in the headline but only as a Wizard of Oz reference. For bond markets, it's an apt all...
Fri, Nov 10 2017, 7:41 PM
Bond markets took a beating today and analysts are still trying to build a case against a slew of potential assailants. Here's what we know.
Euro...
Fri, Nov 10 2017, 9:41 AM
After 2 weeks of solid gains, bonds have taken the past 3 days (which includes today's overnight trading) to push back in the other direction. At l...
Thu, Nov 9 2017, 4:49 PM
Bond markets began the day roughly unchanged after initially improving in the overnight session. Domestic hours saw 10yr yields make 2 attempts to br...
Thu, Nov 9 2017, 9:28 AM
Bonds are beginning the day in weaker territory for one of several reasons (MBS Live members can read about them in greater detail HERE). The weaknes...
Wed, Nov 8 2017, 4:17 PM
After 5 days of gains for longer-term bonds (we'll lump 10yr Treasuries and the MBS coupons that matter to rate sheets into that category), today fi...
Wed, Nov 8 2017, 8:53 AM
If you've been putting something off that you might be able to chip away at with an extra 5 minutes each morning this week, but simply can't bear the ...
Tue, Nov 7 2017, 5:42 PM
We COULD complain about the absence of volume and volatility in bond markets at the moment. Or we could observe that the calm, relatively sideways ...
Tue, Nov 7 2017, 9:06 AM
Bond traders are like my 10yr old. If you give them plenty of information to consider and if you lay out the right set of challenges, they're much mo...
Mon, Nov 6 2017, 5:05 PM
Both Treasuries and MBS inched their way to the best levels seen in more than 2 weeks today, and it couldn't be much less exciting. Today's trading...
Mon, Nov 6 2017, 9:12 AM
There isn't much by way of relevant data on the economic calendar this week. In fact, there are no reports that would ever be considered "top-tier" ...
Fri, Nov 3 2017, 6:30 PM
This is more of a recap of the week as a whole because if I tried to just cover today, the screen would look too blank! NFP came out weaker than expe...
Fri, Nov 3 2017, 8:29 AM
On average, NFP (the "nonfarm payrolls" component of the Employment Situation report which also refers to the broader report itself) is the biggest ...
Thu, Nov 2 2017, 6:46 PM
Traders' eyes were far more burdened than their fingers (which push the "trade" button) today. There was a ton of info to take in regarding the GOP's...
Thu, Nov 2 2017, 9:13 AM
There are only so many ways to say the same thing, but I'll at least update the chart to show that bonds remain inside the same boundaries we've been ...
Wed, Nov 1 2017, 2:09 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and...
Wed, Nov 1 2017, 9:04 AM
Friday and Monday were (relatively) great days for bond markets. For our purposes, at least, they signified an important push back against the more...
Tue, Oct 31 2017, 4:48 PM
Today was the last day of trading for the month of October. That means money managers had to get a certain amount of bond buying accomplished in orde...
Tue, Oct 31 2017, 9:12 AM
While the broader uptrend in rates remains technically intact, the first trading day of the week pushed back in a friendly direction. In fact, it was...
Mon, Oct 30 2017, 4:16 PM
Bonds began the day in stronger territory, generally riding a wave of momentum from late last week on fresh speculation that Trump would nominate Jero...
Mon, Oct 30 2017, 9:14 AM
Wednesday brings this year's 2nd to last installment of Fed policy announcements, and those announcements have certainly been ramping up in terms of s...
Fri, Oct 27 2017, 6:44 PM
If nothing else, today made it clear that markets care about the next Fed chair... a lot! Despite the presence of GDP data, Consumer Sentiment, and...
Fri, Oct 27 2017, 9:02 AM
Yesterday afternoon's MBS Recap is a good read if you want a longer and more philosophical version of what I'm about to write (click the link to read ...
Thu, Oct 26 2017, 7:13 PM
If you haven't seen Zoolander, you won't be familiar with Billy Zane declaring "It's a walk-off," thus beginning the runway modeling battle between Be...
Thu, Oct 26 2017, 8:34 AM
As today begins, the objective details of the ECB policy move are already out. With the exception the percent change in the € amount of bond purcha...
Wed, Oct 25 2017, 6:06 PM
I saw an article from someone who typically does solid work claiming that the massive sell-off in stocks today was due to rising rates. Fortunately, ...
Wed, Oct 25 2017, 9:49 AM
We'll get to the good news in a moment. Bad news is obviously the order of the day as bonds are starting out with a big break through important tec...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 7:17 PM
Yesterday's recap suggested the week had yet to officially begin and that Monday's trading session had been more of an unofficial 3rd day of the weeke...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 9:44 AM
We talked about yesterday being an unofficial 3rd day of the weekend in that trading volumes were light and the trading activity lacked conviction. T...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 5:42 PM
I refer to some Mondays as unofficial 3rd days of the weekend, and today's example qualifies. There were no significant economic reports, no substant...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 8:56 AM
While there are certainly some weeks with far fewer economic reports on tap, the week ahead is still on the light side when it comes to the data that ...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 6:53 PM
There's a good video in the news stream with Austan Goolsbee going on a bit of rant about how the Senate's procedural vote on a budget resolution late...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 9:38 AM
It's a crappy day.
Sorry to use such an esoteric analytical term, but it's the most accurate way to describe the outlook. So what changed?
Lo...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 5:11 PM
It was a pretty interesting session for how narrow the range continues to be in bond markets--interesting both for bonds themselves and for the analys...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 8:34 AM
The past 3 days were disconcerting for bond markets--especially yesterday, which saw yields move higher at their quickest pace in two weeks. This thr...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 4:58 PM
Everything seemed so simple last Friday when bonds were surging past technical barriers in strong volume--ostensibly ringing the dinner bell for mor...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 9:43 AM
Ah mid-October... All too often in the 2009-2014 time frame, we'd seen abrupt reversals of trends at this time of month. We haven't really been on ...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 4:52 PM
Treasuries and MBS have spent the past 2 days trading well inside the range set by last Friday's volatility (big rally following CPI data). Unfortuna...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 9:18 AM
As we discussed last week, the positive technical signals don't get much clearer than they did after Friday's CPI data (weak inflation helped bonds br...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 5:01 PM
If the only things you could observe about today's bond trading were volumes and "buy vs sell," there were a few moments where things got fairly inte...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 9:27 AM
It looks like it will be touch and go for bonds as the week begins. If yields or technicals touch certain overhead ceilings, you should go lock...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 4:30 PM
There was a time--in fact, there was a stretch of several years--when inflation-related reports just didn't matter . I would have been the first to ...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 8:18 AM
My apologies to baseball fans, both of you. The "judge" in today's case is this morning's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Bonds have been deliberat...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 8:04 PM
Bond markets are matching their best 3-day performance in over a month with today's stronger closing levels. Unlike the previous examples, the curr...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 9:04 AM
CPI, CPI, CPI...
The "Consumer Price Index" is the one thing on this week's economic calendar that stood out as a top tier potential market mover. ...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 5:34 PM
"Well? Get on with it!"
That about sums up what the average bond market watcher was thinking at the end of September--and possibly again after t...
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