Fri, Oct 27 2017, 6:44 PM
If nothing else, today made it clear that markets care about the next Fed chair... a lot! Despite the presence of GDP data, Consumer Sentiment, and...
Fri, Oct 27 2017, 9:02 AM
Yesterday afternoon's MBS Recap is a good read if you want a longer and more philosophical version of what I'm about to write (click the link to read ...
Thu, Oct 26 2017, 7:13 PM
If you haven't seen Zoolander, you won't be familiar with Billy Zane declaring "It's a walk-off," thus beginning the runway modeling battle between Be...
Thu, Oct 26 2017, 8:34 AM
As today begins, the objective details of the ECB policy move are already out. With the exception the percent change in the € amount of bond purcha...
Wed, Oct 25 2017, 6:06 PM
I saw an article from someone who typically does solid work claiming that the massive sell-off in stocks today was due to rising rates. Fortunately, ...
Wed, Oct 25 2017, 9:49 AM
We'll get to the good news in a moment. Bad news is obviously the order of the day as bonds are starting out with a big break through important tec...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 7:17 PM
Yesterday's recap suggested the week had yet to officially begin and that Monday's trading session had been more of an unofficial 3rd day of the weeke...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 9:44 AM
We talked about yesterday being an unofficial 3rd day of the weekend in that trading volumes were light and the trading activity lacked conviction. T...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 5:42 PM
I refer to some Mondays as unofficial 3rd days of the weekend, and today's example qualifies. There were no significant economic reports, no substant...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 8:56 AM
While there are certainly some weeks with far fewer economic reports on tap, the week ahead is still on the light side when it comes to the data that ...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 6:53 PM
There's a good video in the news stream with Austan Goolsbee going on a bit of rant about how the Senate's procedural vote on a budget resolution late...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 9:38 AM
It's a crappy day.
Sorry to use such an esoteric analytical term, but it's the most accurate way to describe the outlook. So what changed?
Lo...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 5:11 PM
It was a pretty interesting session for how narrow the range continues to be in bond markets--interesting both for bonds themselves and for the analys...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 8:34 AM
The past 3 days were disconcerting for bond markets--especially yesterday, which saw yields move higher at their quickest pace in two weeks. This thr...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 4:58 PM
Everything seemed so simple last Friday when bonds were surging past technical barriers in strong volume--ostensibly ringing the dinner bell for mor...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 9:43 AM
Ah mid-October... All too often in the 2009-2014 time frame, we'd seen abrupt reversals of trends at this time of month. We haven't really been on ...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 4:52 PM
Treasuries and MBS have spent the past 2 days trading well inside the range set by last Friday's volatility (big rally following CPI data). Unfortuna...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 9:18 AM
As we discussed last week, the positive technical signals don't get much clearer than they did after Friday's CPI data (weak inflation helped bonds br...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 5:01 PM
If the only things you could observe about today's bond trading were volumes and "buy vs sell," there were a few moments where things got fairly inte...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 9:27 AM
It looks like it will be touch and go for bonds as the week begins. If yields or technicals touch certain overhead ceilings, you should go lock...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 4:30 PM
There was a time--in fact, there was a stretch of several years--when inflation-related reports just didn't matter . I would have been the first to ...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 8:18 AM
My apologies to baseball fans, both of you. The "judge" in today's case is this morning's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Bonds have been deliberat...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 8:04 PM
Bond markets are matching their best 3-day performance in over a month with today's stronger closing levels. Unlike the previous examples, the curr...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 9:04 AM
CPI, CPI, CPI...
The "Consumer Price Index" is the one thing on this week's economic calendar that stood out as a top tier potential market mover. ...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 5:34 PM
"Well? Get on with it!"
That about sums up what the average bond market watcher was thinking at the end of September--and possibly again after t...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 8:50 AM
On both MBS Live and Mortgage News Daily, there's a video in the news stream titled "Key things to watch in the Fed minutes." The commentator rather ...
Tue, Oct 10 2017, 4:49 PM
Bonds struggled to find a theme in their first trading day back from a 3-day weekend. Much of the international focus was on Catalonia's quest for in...
Tue, Oct 10 2017, 9:00 AM
After having waited a day to begin trading this week due to yesterday's Columbus Day holiday, bond markets will spend today waiting for the week's mor...
Fri, Oct 6 2017, 6:22 PM
The Employment Situation (aka the jobs report, or simply, "NFP") is the granddaddy of all economic reports. Through the years, no other piece of da...
Fri, Oct 6 2017, 8:22 AM
NFP, or "nonfarm payrolls" (the principle component of the big jobs report officially known as the "Employment Situation") are a bond market instituti...
Thu, Oct 5 2017, 4:58 PM
Generally higher yields and tepid intraday performances are nothing new for bond markets over the past week and a half. In some ways, today marked a ...
Thu, Oct 5 2017, 8:49 AM
Yet again, bond markets have managed to string together 4 days doing something other than selling off abjectly. Without a firmer push toward lower ...
Wed, Oct 4 2017, 5:19 PM
Bond markets saw a decent amount of strength in the afternoon. It ultimately allowed 10yr yields and MBS to return to positive territory by the end o...
Wed, Oct 4 2017, 9:11 AM
In 2011-2016, Europe was the dark horse market mover that ended up winning the race. Far too few domestic market participants appreciated the impact ...
Tue, Oct 3 2017, 4:36 PM
Both yesterday and today have been the sort of days that just haven't mattered in the slightest for bond markets. Yesterday was spent consolidating ...
Tue, Oct 3 2017, 9:05 AM
Bond markets are in the throes of their worst uptrend in yields since the November presidential election. Granted, trading levels are still roughly...
Mon, Oct 2 2017, 5:30 PM
You never know... Sometimes the end of any given month will be skewed in one direction in terms of trading momentum only for the following month to s...
Mon, Oct 2 2017, 9:11 AM
The current trend in bond markets is not your friend. While it may sound trite, there's a reason we say "the trend is not your friend until it's your...
Fri, Sep 29 2017, 3:49 PM
The music is currently playing for the role of Fed Chair next year. When the music stops, Yellen may or may not still have a seat. News came out t...
Fri, Sep 29 2017, 8:31 AM
This morning brings one of the more important inflation metrics for the US economy via the "Incomes and Outlays" report. As the name suggests, the re...
Thu, Sep 28 2017, 4:39 PM
Treasuries hit their highest yields since the beginning of July today, although they'd already begun to calm down by the start of the domestic sessi...
Thu, Sep 28 2017, 8:32 AM
First off, let me say that the extent to which bond market weakness over the past 2 days is being wholly attributed to the tax plan borders on ridicul...
Wed, Sep 27 2017, 5:40 PM
While MBS definitely did sell-off today, and while mortgage rates did indeed move higher, it was Treasuries that took the brunt of the damage. Specif...
Wed, Sep 27 2017, 9:24 AM
Before it even began, today was set to be a challenge for bond markets. As discussed in an earlier update on MBS Live , Treasury yields rose sharpl...
Tue, Sep 26 2017, 4:33 PM
Today was another good day for bond markets despite the fact that Treasury yields moved somewhat higher during the course of trading hours. At leas...
Tue, Sep 26 2017, 9:05 AM
For some of you, this may seem very basic. For others, hopefully it will serve as an eye-opener or even just a useful refresher. I got the inspirati...
Mon, Sep 25 2017, 5:16 PM
It's tempting to say that bond markets are definitively pushing back against the sharp correction that brought rates higher over the past 2 weeks. In...
Mon, Sep 25 2017, 9:03 AM
The current week begins with bonds holding ground for a 3rd day after a fairly sharp selling spree in the preceding 2 weeks. The big question is whet...
Fri, Sep 22 2017, 4:52 PM
Who knows how today's trading would have unfolded absent the overnight headlines that North Korea was planning to test an ICBM with a Hydrogen warhead...
Fri, Sep 22 2017, 8:59 AM
With a dearth of economic data on the calendar, bond traders were set to take cues from other traders, technical levels, and perhaps a big-ticket head...
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