Wed, Jun 7 2017, 4:57 PM
Bond markets were only modestly weaker in the overnight session (unlike yesterday where a majority of the day's weakness was seen overnight), but bega...
Wed, Jun 7 2017, 9:19 AM
One never knows what to expect on the relatively data-free day ahead of a minefield of potential market movers 24 hours later. To be clear, we're tal...
Tue, Jun 6 2017, 7:05 PM
After yesterday's modest bond market weakness, we may well have assumed that traders were in their preferred positions ahead of Thursday's big-ticket ...
Tue, Jun 6 2017, 9:28 AM
There are no significant data or events on the calendar today and the Fed remains in its "blackout period" (where Fed speakers abstain from commenting...
Mon, Jun 5 2017, 6:03 PM
ISM Non-Manufacturing was this morning's biggest potential market mover, but it came in very close to consensus. Moreover, its internal components ...
Mon, Jun 5 2017, 9:10 AM
There are two white lines in today's chart. Each represents the pace of the two most recent rallies in rates (with the latter being the current rally...
Fri, Jun 2 2017, 6:40 PM
"The gap" refers to the closing yields in 10yr Treasuries of 2.15% on 11/10/2016 followed by opening yields of 2.17% the following business day. Gran...
Fri, Jun 2 2017, 8:32 AM
Today's only significant data point will be NFP, which is the most significant piece of scheduled economic data every month! When the economy is in...
Thu, Jun 1 2017, 4:48 PM
Bond markets lost ground today, but less than you might expect given several of the typical inputs. In terms of economic data, this morning's ADP Emp...
Thu, Jun 1 2017, 8:45 AM
Bond markets had been in a clearly-delineated positive trend from mid-March through mid-April followed by a clearly-delineated negative trend though m...
Wed, May 31 2017, 5:27 PM
If we simply consider the close-of-the-day trading levels in bond markets, today was "unchanged." The intraday activity tells only a slightly more de...
Wed, May 31 2017, 9:05 AM
In one of yesterday's updates (THIS ONE, to be specific), we discussed the role that month-end bond buying was likely playing behind the scenes. Long...
Tue, May 30 2017, 4:46 PM
Unfortunately, we won't really know until after this week is over, but if today is any indication, bond markets look like they're willing to consider ...
Tue, May 30 2017, 8:50 AM
Although there are only four trading days in the week ahead, they bring a far more venerable lineup of economic data compared to last week. This coin...
Fri, May 26 2017, 3:09 PM
Today was a non-starter, despite the presence of economic data that certainly had the street cred to move markets (if markets were inclined to move)...
Fri, May 26 2017, 8:28 AM
Up until yesterday, the past week and a half of trading ran the risk of taking the shape of an uptrend leading back from the lows that followed last w...
Thu, May 25 2017, 4:54 PM
After seeing today's trading--especially when we consider it in the context of recent technical levels and yesterday's bounce around 2.25% in 10yr yie...
Thu, May 25 2017, 9:14 AM
Tuesday of this week was a bit alarming for bond markets as it introduced the possibility that yields were opting for upward momentum after bottoming ...
Wed, May 24 2017, 4:45 PM
Bonds began the day in inconsequentially stronger territory and soon moved to the worst levels in a week leading up to the 5yr Treasury auction. Th...
Wed, May 24 2017, 9:16 AM
Today's main event from a "street cred" standpoint will be the 2pm release of the Minutes from the last Fed meeting . This is a detailed account of ...
Tue, May 23 2017, 4:21 PM
Much like the week before last, we're seeing an abundance of new "supply" hitting the bond market. This comes both in the form of the scheduled Tre...
Tue, May 23 2017, 9:45 AM
Although yields have risen modestly over the past 3 trading session, they've done so from the best levels in more than 7 months. If we take a few ste...
Mon, May 22 2017, 9:32 AM
Last week was characterized by one big day of volume and volatility surrounding the apparently scandalous and sensational political headlines. By now...
Mon, May 22 2017, 5:08 PM
Today was super slow for bond markets with 10yr yields holding under the same ceiling that was in place on Friday (2.25+). At the same time, the lo...
Fri, May 19 2017, 9:11 AM
If bonds hadn't undergone their highest volume move of the year on Wednesday and Thursday, we would have expected this week to be relatively dead in...
Thu, May 18 2017, 9:13 AM
I can't emphasize this enough: when bond markets have a day like they had yesterday, it's often followed shortly thereafter by a correction. In the c...
Thu, May 18 2017, 7:03 PM
It could have been a lot worse! That's a great theme for today's bond market action. Yesterday was the kind of rally where traders buy bonds first a...
Wed, May 17 2017, 9:01 AM
I hate politics and talking about political issues with anyone, ever, unless they have a clear and specific impact on bond markets. That was the case...
Wed, May 17 2017, 5:32 PM
Today will either go down as a game-changing rally in the course of bond traders' decision making process for 2017, or as an epic head-fake that p...
Tue, May 16 2017, 9:06 AM
I'll be one of the first to tell you that traditional concept of stock prices moving in the same direction in bond yields breaks down when viewing lon...
Tue, May 16 2017, 8:37 PM
The week began in slow fashion yesterday both in terms of volume and volatility. That largely remained the case in the bigger picture today, despite...
Mon, May 15 2017, 9:22 AM
Last Friday represented a potential shift in the recent trend toward higher rates that began in mid-April. 10yr yields (which we track as the best ...
Mon, May 15 2017, 6:55 PM
Last week ended with the hope that rates were breaking below the uptrend that had been in place since mid-April. Certainly, if we had to judge that...
Fri, May 12 2017, 9:21 AM
It's going to be a chart-focused commentary today, because frankly, there's not much to say with words. The bottom line is that this morning's econom...
Fri, May 12 2017, 6:24 PM
Bonds were losing ground clearly and convincingly this week, until this morning's economic data came along. To be fair , we might say that bonds beg...
Thu, May 11 2017, 9:36 AM
You've no doubt run across the phrase "the beatings will continue until morale improves." That's not too far from being an apt assessment of an uptre...
Thu, May 11 2017, 6:41 PM
To be fair to bond markets, they might not have needed much help to hold their ground today had it not been for the stronger economic data in the morn...
Wed, May 10 2017, 9:43 AM
Any time rates have been trending decidedly higher (as they have been since mid-April), every day of gains has the potential to become the turning po...
Wed, May 10 2017, 6:46 PM
Bond markets were having a decent enough day during the morning hours. Stocks and European markets were weaker, dragging bond yields lower in a clas...
Tue, May 9 2017, 9:46 AM
Let me take you back--but not necessarily "way back"--to March 2017. Geopolitical risks weren't on the radar yet (no Syria air strike, North Korea th...
Tue, May 9 2017, 6:23 PM
Let's get the caveats out of the way. Bond markets ended the day in slightly weaker territory, and the broader trend remains toward higher yields. M...
Mon, May 8 2017, 9:23 AM
The economic and event calendar is fairly light this week, especially on the first few days. The importance and pace of potential market movers incre...
Mon, May 8 2017, 6:54 PM
We've been tracking an uptrend in yields since they bottomed out in mid April. There was some hope that we would see a firmer ceiling take shape head...
Fri, May 5 2017, 8:24 AM
Today's chart is essentially the same chart we examined yesterday, but this time the only trendlines are those surrounding the most recent trend. The...
Fri, May 5 2017, 7:12 PM
Today's NFP report certainly could have been damaging for bond markets if it contained a significant revision to last month's low 98k headline. It ...
Thu, May 4 2017, 9:11 AM
I frequently use the lead-off analogy to characterize financial markets' propensity to start drifting in the direction of their next most-desired di...
Thu, May 4 2017, 7:37 PM
This morning's Day Ahead laid out a case for bonds taking a "lead-off" ahead of tomorrow's NFP data. It's not necessarily about NFP (the nonfarm pa...
Wed, May 3 2017, 8:57 AM
Bond markets are beginning the day in slightly weaker territory after as-expected ADP Employment data and the Treasury Department commented on the p...
Wed, May 3 2017, 5:12 PM
Today's Fed announcement turned out to be a dud . It's getting headline treatment here based solely on street cred. In and of itself, it could scar...
Wed, May 3 2017, 2:02 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February March indicates tha...
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