Mon, Jun 26 2017, 9:37 AM
Whereas the previous week was generally devoid of significant economic data or market moving events, the current week is more of a contender. On the ...
Fri, Jun 23 2017, 5:32 PM
We've been watching the intraday trading ranges in bond markets to keep an eye on just how flat things have been in the wake of last Wednesday's big t...
Fri, Jun 23 2017, 8:59 AM
You've heard of "innocent until proven guilty." This week of trading in bond markets has been "flat and boring until proven volatile." For many, i...
Thu, Jun 22 2017, 4:43 PM
Yesterday's recap went into some detail about the market phenomenon that can result in intense periods of sideways momentum (and trader apathy) duri...
Thu, Jun 22 2017, 8:53 AM
With the trading activity seen in the wake of last Wednesday's high-volume/high-movement day, it's clear that bond markets have been in a holding patt...
Wed, Jun 21 2017, 4:50 PM
With the taper tantrum in 2013 and Brexit in 2016, two of our most recent examples of summertime bond trading have been pulled very far from historica...
Wed, Jun 21 2017, 9:17 AM
Here we are again with oil falling into new lows for the year and suddenly, it's the inspiration for everything according to most mainstream financial...
Tue, Jun 20 2017, 4:54 PM
Today had no significant news or events on the calendar, thus leaving traders to watch other traders for cues. To some extent, several Fed speakers g...
Tue, Jun 20 2017, 9:08 AM
The week continues to offer little by way of scheduled economic data/events to stir the pot, thus leaving us to observe the underlying biases among tr...
Mon, Jun 19 2017, 5:06 PM
Right out of the gate this morning, NY Fed President William Dudley set a rather negative tone for bond markets with several comments that essentially...
Mon, Jun 19 2017, 9:40 AM
The past 3 trading sessions marked 3 of the 5 lowest closes for 10yr yields in 2017. Friday's strength did a nice job of pushing back against a poten...
Fri, Jun 16 2017, 5:04 PM
Today was destined to be a sideways grind at slightly weaker levels for bond markets. This would have extended the theme that had been in place sin...
Fri, Jun 16 2017, 9:09 AM
Bond markets may not give a stellar performance today, offering resounding confirmation of an ongoing rally. Conversely, they're not likely to rise e...
Thu, Jun 15 2017, 4:26 PM
To be fair to the Fed, they didn't really cause most of today's weakness. Bond markets already showed their hand with respect to yesterday's Fed ev...
Thu, Jun 15 2017, 9:34 AM
Yesterday's rally was a potential game changer for the "great push back" of 2017 . That's not the official term for the past several months of gener...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 5:34 PM
In a weird way, today's Fed announcement came out right at 8:30am when Core CPI dropped to 1.7%, falling well short of the 1.9% median forecast (year-...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 2:03 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March May indicates that the...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 8:32 AM
If you follow bond market movement for long enough, one thing becomes clear above all others: the Fed is the most reliable explanation for shifts in m...
Tue, Jun 13 2017, 4:55 PM
The past 3 trading sessions have largely represented a consolidation in prices and yields, just off the best levels of the year. There has certainl...
Tue, Jun 13 2017, 8:47 AM
While we do have some economic data to get through today (Producer Prices, which are already out stronger than expected, and the afternoon's 30yr bond...
Mon, Jun 12 2017, 5:16 PM
Today's bond trading was largely a story of the 3yr Treasury auction vs the 10yr Treasury auction. Both of these are used to encountering each other ...
Mon, Jun 12 2017, 9:10 AM
It would be miraculous to see bond markets escape this week without experiencing some sort of reaction to the plethora of data and scheduled events. ...
Fri, Jun 9 2017, 5:20 PM
Yesterday's recap was titled "Surprising (or Not?) Absence of Volatility." Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice... won't be fooled again.
The ...
Fri, Jun 9 2017, 9:02 AM
All of our high-risk events for this week have come and gone, and bond markets aren't able to justify the stronger "lead-off" levels that marked the p...
Thu, Jun 8 2017, 4:55 PM
Perhaps it had to do with yesterday's 1st round of Senate testimony or Comey's prepared remarks giving bond markets an unfriendly bump, but bonds ende...
Thu, Jun 8 2017, 9:02 AM
A few days ago, I laid out a bullish long-term case for bond markets. I could probably do something similar for a bearish case, but when it comes to ...
Wed, Jun 7 2017, 4:57 PM
Bond markets were only modestly weaker in the overnight session (unlike yesterday where a majority of the day's weakness was seen overnight), but bega...
Wed, Jun 7 2017, 9:19 AM
One never knows what to expect on the relatively data-free day ahead of a minefield of potential market movers 24 hours later. To be clear, we're tal...
Tue, Jun 6 2017, 7:05 PM
After yesterday's modest bond market weakness, we may well have assumed that traders were in their preferred positions ahead of Thursday's big-ticket ...
Tue, Jun 6 2017, 9:28 AM
There are no significant data or events on the calendar today and the Fed remains in its "blackout period" (where Fed speakers abstain from commenting...
Mon, Jun 5 2017, 6:03 PM
ISM Non-Manufacturing was this morning's biggest potential market mover, but it came in very close to consensus. Moreover, its internal components ...
Mon, Jun 5 2017, 9:10 AM
There are two white lines in today's chart. Each represents the pace of the two most recent rallies in rates (with the latter being the current rally...
Fri, Jun 2 2017, 6:40 PM
"The gap" refers to the closing yields in 10yr Treasuries of 2.15% on 11/10/2016 followed by opening yields of 2.17% the following business day. Gran...
Fri, Jun 2 2017, 8:32 AM
Today's only significant data point will be NFP, which is the most significant piece of scheduled economic data every month! When the economy is in...
Thu, Jun 1 2017, 4:48 PM
Bond markets lost ground today, but less than you might expect given several of the typical inputs. In terms of economic data, this morning's ADP Emp...
Thu, Jun 1 2017, 8:45 AM
Bond markets had been in a clearly-delineated positive trend from mid-March through mid-April followed by a clearly-delineated negative trend though m...
Wed, May 31 2017, 5:27 PM
If we simply consider the close-of-the-day trading levels in bond markets, today was "unchanged." The intraday activity tells only a slightly more de...
Wed, May 31 2017, 9:05 AM
In one of yesterday's updates (THIS ONE, to be specific), we discussed the role that month-end bond buying was likely playing behind the scenes. Long...
Tue, May 30 2017, 4:46 PM
Unfortunately, we won't really know until after this week is over, but if today is any indication, bond markets look like they're willing to consider ...
Tue, May 30 2017, 8:50 AM
Although there are only four trading days in the week ahead, they bring a far more venerable lineup of economic data compared to last week. This coin...
Fri, May 26 2017, 3:09 PM
Today was a non-starter, despite the presence of economic data that certainly had the street cred to move markets (if markets were inclined to move)...
Fri, May 26 2017, 8:28 AM
Up until yesterday, the past week and a half of trading ran the risk of taking the shape of an uptrend leading back from the lows that followed last w...
Thu, May 25 2017, 4:54 PM
After seeing today's trading--especially when we consider it in the context of recent technical levels and yesterday's bounce around 2.25% in 10yr yie...
Thu, May 25 2017, 9:14 AM
Tuesday of this week was a bit alarming for bond markets as it introduced the possibility that yields were opting for upward momentum after bottoming ...
Wed, May 24 2017, 4:45 PM
Bonds began the day in inconsequentially stronger territory and soon moved to the worst levels in a week leading up to the 5yr Treasury auction. Th...
Wed, May 24 2017, 9:16 AM
Today's main event from a "street cred" standpoint will be the 2pm release of the Minutes from the last Fed meeting . This is a detailed account of ...
Tue, May 23 2017, 4:21 PM
Much like the week before last, we're seeing an abundance of new "supply" hitting the bond market. This comes both in the form of the scheduled Tre...
Tue, May 23 2017, 9:45 AM
Although yields have risen modestly over the past 3 trading session, they've done so from the best levels in more than 7 months. If we take a few ste...
Mon, May 22 2017, 9:32 AM
Last week was characterized by one big day of volume and volatility surrounding the apparently scandalous and sensational political headlines. By now...
Mon, May 22 2017, 5:08 PM
Today was super slow for bond markets with 10yr yields holding under the same ceiling that was in place on Friday (2.25+). At the same time, the lo...
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