Wed, Feb 1 2017, 5:25 PM
Between this morning's economic reports and opening tradeflows, there was quite a bit more volume early in the day. This was almost exclusively in ...
Wed, Feb 1 2017, 2:07 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests indicates ...
Tue, Jan 31 2017, 8:39 AM
Yesterday was a bit of a puzzler for bond markets. Volumes were decent, but movement was contained in a very narrow range (seen in the chart below). ...
Tue, Jan 31 2017, 5:01 PM
Bonds have rallied moderately since last Thursday. Incidentally, that's also when stocks topped out after their run to all-time highs (for most indic...
Mon, Jan 30 2017, 9:04 AM
Another week in early 2017, another chance for bond markets to defend the rate ceiling set in late 2016(around 2.64% in 10yr yields) or strive for the...
Mon, Jan 30 2017, 5:26 PM
It was an uneventful day for bond markets from most points of view. After opening slightly stronger in Asia, Treasuries sold-off modestly during th...
Fri, Jan 27 2017, 8:25 AM
So far this week, economic data has played a subdued, almost meaningless role in motivating bond market movement. Instead, we've seen big picture t...
Fri, Jan 27 2017, 4:37 PM
It was a fairly one-dimensional day for bond markets, and indeed, markets in general. Despite moderate strength in European bond markets overnight, U...
Thu, Jan 26 2017, 8:36 AM
The winter holiday season can be defined a few different ways. Most broadly, it refers to Thanksgiving through President's day. That's a bit too br...
Thu, Jan 26 2017, 4:28 PM
It may not be the last time we can say this, but bonds hit their weakest levels of 2017 today--first in the overnight session as European bond markets...
Wed, Jan 25 2017, 8:40 AM
The first few weeks of the new year were good for bond markets, but that dream is increasingly being shattered by the past 2 weeks. We were already r...
Wed, Jan 25 2017, 5:38 PM
There were no major headlines this morning and no big economic reports behind bonds' big selling spree. Some news stories suggested overnight bond we...
Tue, Jan 24 2017, 9:10 AM
Today's only significant economic data hits at 10am ET with Existing Home Sales (5.52 mln forecast vs 5.61 mln previously). Given the bigger decline ...
Tue, Jan 24 2017, 5:17 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory following overnight weakness in European bond markets. In addition, bond buyers generally got their ...
Mon, Jan 23 2017, 8:52 AM
Beginning on the business week before an FOMC Announcement, Fed speakers are "highly discouraged" (forbidden, basically) from making public speeches o...
Mon, Jan 23 2017, 6:55 PM
Mt. St. Helens was the most destructive volcano in US history. Mt. St. Yellen has almost nothing to do with it apart from the fact that the bond m...
Fri, Jan 20 2017, 9:24 AM
10yr yields hit 2.5112 overnight. That's close enough to the important 2.52% pivot point to suggest an expansion of what we consider the current rang...
Fri, Jan 20 2017, 5:28 PM
To be fair to today's presidential inauguration, it was never destined to be an exceptionally big market mover. Traders nonetheless had to prepare to...
Thu, Jan 19 2017, 8:34 AM
When it comes to defining the recent range, there are several candidates for the upper and lower boundaries. When 10yr yields were under 2.40%, that ...
Thu, Jan 19 2017, 5:22 PM
Pain continued for bond markets today as 10yr yields broke above the upper range boundaries that had been intact since the beginning of the year. Ad...
Wed, Jan 18 2017, 8:29 AM
Although yields were able to close at the lowest levels in more than a month yesterday, bonds continued to trade in the same intraday range (roughly...
Wed, Jan 18 2017, 5:20 PM
After flirting with a break of the lower end of 2017's sideways range yesterday, bond traders clearly decided " now's not the time. " There's preciou...
Tue, Jan 17 2017, 8:46 AM
January continues playing host to the same level of stock/bond correlation that we typically see at the end and beginning of any given year. Beyond c...
Tue, Jan 17 2017, 5:48 PM
In some regards, bonds had their best day of the year today. The outright gains weren't quite as big as Jan 5th or 9th, but closing yields were the...
Fri, Jan 13 2017, 8:26 AM
Bond markets are beginning the day slightly stronger ahead of the week's only significant economic data. The 8:30am time slot brings Retail Sales (...
Fri, Jan 13 2017, 4:54 PM
Granted, we might wake up next Tuesday (markets are closed Monday) to find that bonds are quickly breaking out of the recent range. But as for this...
Thu, Jan 12 2017, 8:28 AM
As the new year continues, a common new year's theme is in full effect: the stock/bond correlation. Stocks and bonds frequently move together over ...
Thu, Jan 12 2017, 6:27 PM
In glancing at various trader/analyst/strategist emails, I see perhaps a greater diversity of opinions about today than of any other recent trading da...
Wed, Jan 11 2017, 8:45 AM
To a significantly greater degree than yesterday's 3yr Treasury auction, today's 10yr auction will have the power to confirm a trend we were beginni...
Wed, Jan 11 2017, 5:09 PM
Today was one of the more complex trading days we've had recently. Three things were certainly in play and 2 of them were interdependent.
1. Stock...
Tue, Jan 10 2017, 8:47 AM
One day down and 2 more to go without meaningful economic data. That didn't stop bonds from having a good day yesterday, but the gains were largely d...
Tue, Jan 10 2017, 5:27 PM
Today was about as tame as they come for bond markets, post-election. 10yr yields traded a high of 2.394 and a low of 2.361. That's a very narrow d...
Mon, Jan 9 2017, 8:38 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Mon, Jan 9 2017, 6:29 PM
It was almost a wholly uneventful day for bond markets. If not for the fact that trading levels improved day-over-day, there wouldn't be much to talk...
Fri, Jan 6 2017, 8:18 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Fri, Jan 6 2017, 5:14 PM
NFP is the biggest piece of economic data on any given month--so big, in fact, that financial markets treat it as a focal point for trading activity ...
Thu, Jan 5 2017, 8:35 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Thu, Jan 5 2017, 5:08 PM
By quite a wide margin, today was the best day for bond markets since the election. 10yr yields dropped nearly 10bps, making it all the way to the ...
Wed, Jan 4 2017, 8:52 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Wed, Jan 4 2017, 5:03 PM
Bonds focused on technicals, range-trading, corporate supply, and the FOMC Minutes today. It all added up to almost no net change across the board, s...
Tue, Jan 3 2017, 8:42 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Tue, Jan 3 2017, 5:37 PM
Bonds began the new year on the defensive thanks to a deluge of corporate bond issuance as well as stronger ISM Manufacturing data. By 10:15am, 10y...
Fri, Dec 30 2016, 8:57 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Thu, Dec 29 2016, 8:30 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Thu, Dec 29 2016, 4:33 PM
Bonds made solid gains again today, both before and after another strong Treasury auction. Fannie 3.5s picked up more than a quarter of a point and 1...
Wed, Dec 28 2016, 8:40 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Wed, Dec 28 2016, 5:11 PM
Today was all about the afternoon's 5yr Treasury note auction, which garnered the best demand in more than 2 years and the highest percentage of indir...
Tue, Dec 27 2016, 8:43 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Tue, Dec 27 2016, 3:39 PM
As far as full business days go (those that aren't "early close"), today was by far and away the slowest day of the year for bond markets. In fact,...
Fri, Dec 23 2016, 8:48 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...