Fri, Dec 23 2016, 1:40 PM
As expected, bonds did nothing today , apart from a possibly detectable response to the inflation-expectation components of the Consumer Sentiment da...
Thu, Dec 22 2016, 8:24 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Thu, Dec 22 2016, 3:45 PM
This is coming out a bit earlier than normal, and I promise to revise and/or put out another recap if by some miraculous turn of events, bond markets ...
Wed, Dec 21 2016, 8:57 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Wed, Dec 21 2016, 6:17 PM
I'll make this quick, on the chance you were enticed to read more after seeing the headline. Bond markets nearly broke 2016's record for the lowest ...
Tue, Dec 20 2016, 8:37 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Tue, Dec 20 2016, 5:28 PM
The holiday theme continued today, with bonds trading inside the range that's been intact since last week's Fed festivities.
As I'll likely ment...
Mon, Dec 19 2016, 8:32 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Mon, Dec 19 2016, 6:33 PM
There will definitely be a theme in the recap commentary for the rest of the year: holidays! It's hard to quantify exactly what the holiday season do...
Fri, Dec 16 2016, 8:18 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Fri, Dec 16 2016, 5:27 PM
"Holiday trading mode" doesn't guarantee uneventful, sideways bond market momentum, but it does up the chances. Actually, it's probably fairer to say...
Thu, Dec 15 2016, 11:02 AM
Sorry for the delay on the morning commentary. As you can see, I had a lot on my mind. I also decided to go a different direction after reading the ...
Thu, Dec 15 2016, 6:56 PM
If you read anything I write today, make it The Day Ahead: The Death of a Long Term Trend; A Definitive Assessment.
If you want to read more, here'...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 8:36 AM
First thing's first: the Fed will almost certainly hike today. I suppose we can't ever be truly certain of a particular outcome of a Fed meeting, b...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 7:14 PM
It's either the best thing or the worst thing in the world, depending on what kind of originator you are. On one hand , the outlook for the economy ...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 2:06 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Sept...
Tue, Dec 13 2016, 9:03 AM
Bond yields have been trending steadily higher even after the initial rout that followed the election. Based on several technical measurements, upwar...
Tue, Dec 13 2016, 4:53 PM
There are two ways to approach today's bond market movements, and they're quintessential examples of the "glass half empty/full" expression.
Gla...
Mon, Dec 12 2016, 9:04 AM
Fed policy is one of the biggest, most consistent market movers for bonds. With such a high likelihood of a hike, bond markets surely must be focu...
Mon, Dec 12 2016, 4:58 PM
We were hoping to see some traction for bond markets after today's Treasury auctions, and we got it! Unfortunately, the overnight session pushed yiel...
Fri, Dec 9 2016, 8:45 AM
Bonds weren't entirely clear in telling us if yesterday's ECB tapering announcement was a " good thing that simply needed to be digested," or if it...
Fri, Dec 9 2016, 4:29 PM
You're familiar with the sippy bird (or " drinking bird ")? For years, these little birds have been offering traders the ability to get out of the of...
Thu, Dec 8 2016, 8:26 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) changed things up today, to some extent. Unlike the Fed, which always unveils its big policy changes in the "announ...
Thu, Dec 8 2016, 6:22 PM
Yesterday we discussed the rally in bonds as a function of short-covering . That meant traders were in a defensive position on Tuesday night--bettin...
Wed, Dec 7 2016, 8:54 AM
From time to time, we see various financial markets take a "lead-off." Just like in baseball, the lead-offs occur because the base-runner knows whe...
Wed, Dec 7 2016, 5:41 PM
"Big" is a relative term these days, to be sure. In fact, 4.8bps in 10yr yields and 10/32nds in Fannie 3.5 MBS prices isn't too terribly big, but...
Tue, Dec 6 2016, 8:47 AM
I generally don't l ike the terms "oversold" (consistent weakness) and "overbought" (consistent strength). I think they lead to false confidence...
Tue, Dec 6 2016, 5:37 PM
Today's bond market trading range was the narrowest since the US presidential election, by far. 10yr yields held inside a paltry 2.9bp range (2.374 t...
Mon, Dec 5 2016, 8:52 AM
This week, we'll finally get to see how much of an impact remains to be had for the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The ECB conducts their ...
Mon, Dec 5 2016, 5:29 PM
After today, we're left with a clearer picture of the prevailing short-term range in bond markets. The volatile reaction to the weekend's Italian ref...
Fri, Dec 2 2016, 8:12 AM
Have you heard the one about the falling knife? And how no one wants to catch it? That's one of the market's favorite analogies for the fear experie...
Fri, Dec 2 2016, 5:17 PM
Let's change up the old fairy tale. Bond markets have been cried wolf on a few recent occasions. In my version of the fairy tale, "crying wolf" is e...
Thu, Dec 1 2016, 8:32 AM
Bond markets begin the day still reeling from yesterday's OPEC-driven rout. We noted in yesterday's closing commentary that yields bounced on an omin...
Thu, Dec 1 2016, 5:44 PM
Bonds began the day in the throes of yesterday's ongoing momentum. There was a bit of a pause during Asian market hours, but European trading quickly...
Wed, Nov 30 2016, 9:48 AM
Yesterday we discussed the positive impact of month-end bond buying. The only problem with month-end buying that occurs on the day before month-e...
Wed, Nov 30 2016, 5:18 PM
Today brought the long-awaited and hotly-anticipated conclusion of a deal among OPEC countries to limit oil production. Constricted supply has one in...
Tue, Nov 29 2016, 9:49 AM
The term ' pivot point ' can mean slightly different things depending on your frame of reference and market-watching goals. For our purposes, the lit...
Tue, Nov 29 2016, 5:33 PM
How many ways could bond market weakness have been justified today? Shall I count the ways?
GDP +3.2 vs +3.0 forecast and +2.9 previously
...
Mon, Nov 28 2016, 4:51 PM
Remember when 10yr yields spiked from roughly 2.31% to roughly 2.41% in the blink of an eye last Wednesday? That was the day before Thanksgiving, w...
Mon, Nov 28 2016, 3:54 PM
Bond markets were stronger right out of the gate in the overnight session with 10yr yields opening at 2.337 and gaining another bp since then. The re...
Fri, Nov 25 2016, 10:22 AM
Few days of the year can be more frustrating to bond market stakeholders who find themselves compelled (either by themselves or their superiors) to ...
Fri, Nov 25 2016, 4:44 PM
As was the goal of most anyone involved in trading bonds, today was completely inconsequential. Recapping the action is a mere formality (indeed, for...
Wed, Nov 23 2016, 9:18 AM
Bond markets begin the day on the run (the bad kind of run), and if Thanksgivings past are any indication, things could get worse before they get bett...
Wed, Nov 23 2016, 5:37 PM
The sense of illiquidity was palpable today. This began in the overnight session when comments from the European Central Bank sent European bond yiel...
Tue, Nov 22 2016, 9:48 AM
Bond markets have quickly "repriced" their expectations for future inflation and growth based on the potential policy path of the Trump administration...
Tue, Nov 22 2016, 6:36 PM
Remember overseas bond markets? It would be easy to forget about the typical influence from Asian and European bond markets on US bond markets over t...
Mon, Nov 21 2016, 10:08 AM
You've probably met people with the inspiring (or nauseating) ability to maintain a positive (or idealistic) attitude in the face of adversity. Perha...
Mon, Nov 21 2016, 6:47 PM
For the third time in the post-election sell-off, bond markets managed modest gains day-over-day. Much like the last 2 times (last Tue and Wed), clos...
Fri, Nov 18 2016, 9:02 AM
Treasuries technically hit overnight highs late in yesterday's session, but it was the overnight hours that saw the more substantial weakness. Long-t...
Fri, Nov 18 2016, 5:41 PM
If you were wondering why I was hesitant to get on board with the modest improvements and sideways ground-holding of the past few days, today brings t...
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