Tue, Jul 12 2022, 10:30 AM
Bonds are starting the day in much stronger territory, and this raises a few interesting points and questions. First off, it's interesting to see a 2...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 5:25 PM
Mortgage rates moved sharply higher last week relative to where they ended the previous week. In the 3 weeks before that, rates fell at one of the fa...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 4:30 PM
Bonds Open to Suggestion Ahead of Inflation Data
After selling off fairly swiftly for most of last week, bon...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 12:27 PM
Heading into the new week early this morning, Treasuries refused to move any higher than Friday's highs and ultimately moved lower as they followed an...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 5:01 PM
Rates Defeated by Data. Another Big Fight Next Week
This week's recap is fairly straightforward. Rates were...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 4:43 PM
Most of the following is an updated version of the same coverage from yesterday. Little changed today apart from the big jobs report pushing rates hi...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 12:54 PM
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus. Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 4:35 PM
Bond Bounce Continues Ahead of Jobs Report and Next Week's CPI
Apart from a brief breakout in mid-June, rate...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 3:46 PM
Without a shadow of a doubt, mortgage rates are noticeably higher today than they were yesterday. They were also noticeably higher yesterday compared...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 11:18 AM
Momentum indicators are staples of technical analysis for a reason. While the exact timing and magnitude of market movement will always defy accurate...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving lower for the past 3 weeks after hitting the highest levels since 2008 in the middle of June. This was a larger-scale...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 4:31 PM
Sharp Losses Offer a Reminder About The Range
We first began to discuss the prevailing rate narrative on May...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:41 AM
The 2nd half of the last 2 months has been good for the bond market, as long as you're willing to overlook the fact that both multi-week rallies requi...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates hit 5.5% last Friday for the top tier conforming 30yr fixed scenario at the average lender. That was the lowest since June 8th, just...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 3:36 PM
Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance
Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading ...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 9:47 AM
Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns... that is the headline at the moment--not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire glo...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates have been volatile in 2022. Most of that volatility has played out in the form of higher rates. The past 2 weeks have been a notable ex...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:17 PM
Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings
Bonds had 3 fewer hours to trade on Friday, but ended up coverin...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 11:54 AM
Bonds were tentatively ready to confirm a top in yields and runaway inflation in May, but hotter CPI in the Eurozone and the US caused one last revisi...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:45 PM
Inflation is the enemy of low interest rates. As such, the mortgage market was waiting patiently for this week's key inflation report released this m...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:33 PM
Bonds Get The Rally They Deserved in Exchange for Cooler PCE Data
This week's data focus was all about today...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 11:54 AM
PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June). So far this morni...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds have been under tremendous pressure due to inflation. As such, when a major inflation report c...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 4:41 PM
Bonds Bolstered by Big Swings in Inflation Data and Expectations
US bonds found several sources of inspirati...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 12:13 PM
Sometimes bonds head into a trading day knowing that some key event(s) will hold the potential to push rates decisively higher or lower depending on t...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 5:02 PM
After moving up sharply on Friday, mortgage rates weren't significantly higher yesterday. That represented a bit of a disconnect with underlying bond...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:50 PM
Surprisingly Resilient as Range-Finding Expedition Continues
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but qui...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:12 PM
Last week was significantly calmer than the previous week for rates (and many other things in the financial market, for that matter). After hitting t...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:03 PM
Bond Market Defensiveness Justified by Weak Auction
Coming into the domestic session, bonds were weaker with...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 12:31 PM
As rates moved up from the lows seen at the end of May, we viewed it as the confirmation of the broader sideways momentum that we hoped would replace ...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 5:00 PM
In 2020 and 2021, housing boomed and rates plummeted at a pace that many considered to be unsustainable . 2022's role is to take things back in the o...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 4:28 PM
Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory
As the day began, bonds flirted with the idea of break...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:36 AM
Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that successfully confirmed...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 4:06 PM
Most of today's mortgage rate headlines suggest that rates are higher this week. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Well, a few things could b...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 3:53 PM
Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength
MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point betwe...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 12:27 PM
A slew of PMI reports (Purchasing Manager Indices, which are essentially more granular, more timely, and only slightly more focused versions of GDP) s...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
Despite Onslaught of Fed Speakers, Bonds Hold Solid Gains
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
When rates jump by some of the biggest amounts ever to the highest levels in more than a decade, it sets us up for some equally impressive corrections...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:30 AM
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields... All of the above moved steadily lower in th...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 5:04 PM
Mortgage rates surged well into the 6% range last week before quickly cooling down after Wednesday's Fed announcement. The average top tier rate was ...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 11:52 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week just barely below the mid-point of last week's big, volatile trading range. Getting here required a moderate amou...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 8:06 PM
In a year where mortgage rate volatility has been extreme, this week made everything else look tame by comparison. While it will never show up in wee...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 11:26 AM
It's been the phrase we love to hate since late May when bond yields encountered firm resistance as they failed to break below 2.7% for 4 straight day...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates are still in the process of bouncing back from an ultra-sharp spike to the highest levels since 2008 seen on Tuesday. Clarity from the...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:23 PM
Treasuries Thunder Back Positive Territory; MBS Underperform
This morning's headline suggested a sideways, v...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 12:24 PM
As rates made their way lower in the month of May, our ongoing thesis was that gains would be limited by the fact that a true rally required many mont...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 6:48 PM
The pace of the spike in mortgage rates over the past several days has been nothing but staggering --especially considering it began when rates were ...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 4:47 PM
Big Victory After Powell Says Toss Up Between 50 and 75 Next Meeting
Whether we're talking about the past week, month or year, the war continues...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 2:01 PM
Although overall Overall economic activity edged appears to have picked up after edging down in the in the first quarter, household spending ...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 11:24 AM
It's hard to think of too many other Fed announcements with more potential volatility than today's. 4 short business days ago, the market knew exactl...
