Thu, Nov 10 2022, 10:58 AM
This morning's trading action offers resounding validation of the market's hyperfocus on this particular CPI report. In a month where the average pri...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates experienced one of their calmest days of the past few weeks with the average lender roughly unchanged from yesterday. Rates are based ...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 11:41 AM
Heading into the week, the absence of tradable data on 3 out of the 4 days was readily apparent. Bonds were left at the mercy of tradeflows (all the ...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:37 PM
We're in the middle of a 4 day week culminating in one of the most important events of the year for interest rates. Thursday morning brings the relea...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:19 PM
Super Sideways After Solid Gains, But Nothing Matters Until Thursday
Today's news cycle was dominated by pol...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 12:10 PM
To be sure, the bond market absolutely CAN experience significant volatility in response to election outcomes, but the extent of that volatility depen...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates are directly linked to trading levels in the bond market. When bonds have a bad day, rates tend to rise. While that was true for the ...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Fret Over Issuance
As Thursday's CPI looms on the horizon as this week's defini...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 11:47 AM
With essentially nothing on the economic calendar on Monday, the most notable headline for the bond market has been the announcement of at least 13 ne...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 4:13 PM
Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75
After being steadily crushed to the most inverted levels...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 11:28 AM
This morning's centerpiece was the nonfarm payrolls number coming in at 260 versus a median forecast of 200k. Additionally, the previous month was re...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 4:30 PM
Post Fed Weakness Keeping Markets on Edge
Wednesday's Fed reaction reverberated through overseas markets ove...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 3:49 PM
If you missed yesterday's explanation of the Fed's impact on mortgage rates, it's worth a read (assuming you'd like to understand the Fed's impact on ...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 12:33 PM
Powell did as was expected yesterday by acknowledging an eventual conversation about slowing the pace of rate hikes while at the same time reminding m...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 6:43 PM
The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 0.75% today and 30yr fixed mortgage rates moved moderately higher. Interestingly enough, those two things are fair...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 5:34 PM
Powell Sticks To Same Script (The One That Bonds Don't Really Like)
Today's much-anticipated Fed announcemen...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 11:57 AM
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year. 4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook. Those announcement days tend to produc...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today after spending the past two trading days moving higher. The average lender remains in the low 7% range for ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 4:52 PM
Both Sides of The Market Eagerly Trading Fed Cues
Stocks and bonds both began the day in stronger territory ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 12:43 PM
November kicked off with a strong showing from buyers after October's month-end session saw a fair amount of selling. But the gains didn't last long....
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates are fresh off their best week since at least July and their best winning streak (in terms of consecutive days moving lower) in well ove...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:29 PM
Late Day Volatility Surrounding Month-End and Corporate Issuance
The day got off to a slow start with bonds ...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 11:24 AM
Bonds are contending with a modest amount of weakness overnight, but not enough to derail our conclusion that bonds have leveled off after an overdone...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 4:10 PM
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Heading into the current week, it wasn't...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 10:03 AM
Throughout the week, we've been of the mind that last week's losses were overdone and this week's gains represented a correction to that unjustified w...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 5:00 PM
As of yesterday, mortgage rates were already on their best winning streak since late July in terms of consecutive days spent moving lower. With today...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 3:34 PM
Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide
Bonds may have moved into stronger territory tod...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 11:37 AM
Today began with bonds in moderately weaker territory after token defensive positioning following a solid rally and ahead of the week's more consequen...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for an impressive 4th straight day. That hasn't happened since late July, but there are a few caveats. First off, while t...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:06 PM
Another Solid Day; Detailed Discussion on 5.0 Coupons vs 7% Rates
Bonds are trading better than they have at...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 12:31 PM
A bit of housekeeping before we get to the UMBS question...
Bonds have have been rallying very well since yesterday morning. At the same time, the ...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 5:18 PM
Yesterday, we noted that the 2nd consecutive day of improvement for mortgage rates was a rare accomplishment in the context of the past few months. N...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 4:34 PM
Strong Showing For Bonds. So Have Things Changed?
Bonds rallied overnight of their own volition and in conce...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 12:13 PM
Bonds rallied at a solid pace overnight with gains in both Asian and European sessions. More impressive, however, have been the domestic session gain...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 5:15 PM
Now here's a rare thing! Mortgage rates managed to move lower, on average, for the 2nd consecutive business day on Monday. That hasn't happened for r...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 4:50 PM
US Bonds Try (And Fail) To Follow The EU Rally
The average day over the past few weeks/months has seen a hig...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 12:00 PM
The end of last week was a wild little emotional roller coaster for the bond market. Thursday brought a sharp sell-off that spilled into the overnigh...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 8:18 PM
There's no way to sugarcoat the situation in the bond market and, by extension, the mortgage and housing markets. Rates have risen at a nearly unprece...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 4:47 PM
Crazy, Scary Morning Gives Way to Moderate Gains
The bond market gamed the Fed today, and won (i.e. the long...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 12:34 PM
The bond market began the day by doing its best impression of lover scorned, threatening self harm unless it gets some sort of validation from its for...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 5:27 PM
Important Day For Bonds and an Important Conversation About MBS Coupons
The important conversation about MBS...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 4:42 PM
Let's talk about exactly what it means to see a mortgage rate headline in the news, or even from some seemingly official index or survey. In fact, l...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 11:59 AM
Everyone is tired of the persistent sell-off in the bond market, but weariness is no match for the negative momentum. We've long since run out of ways...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 5:10 PM
There's no sense in beating a dead horse or wading through another "same story, different day" assessment of rates. They were already at 20 year highs...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 4:59 PM
Another Move to Long Term Lows 'Just Because'
Today began with more upward pressure on yields, apparently du...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 11:08 AM
Today begins with bond yields at new 14 year highs with the ostensible culprit being the inflation reading in the UK overnight. While there's no ques...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 5:30 PM
Secret Market Movers or New Normal For Intraday Volatility?
Today's most exciting moments arrived just after...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, but not without plenty of volatility in between. Mortgage lenders would prefer to set their rates once...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 11:16 AM
When salmon return to the river after spending a number of years in the ocean, they don't charge upstream immediately. They spend time moving in and ...
