Tue, Oct 18 2022, 11:16 AM
When salmon return to the river after spending a number of years in the ocean, they don't charge upstream immediately. They spend time moving in and ...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 5:40 PM
Not only is the mortgage rate landscape vastly different than most of the past 20 years in terms of outright levels, but the way things change from da...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 4:26 PM
Technically Stronger But it Feels Weaker
Bonds began the day in stronger territory with overnight support co...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 12:40 PM
Recall that last Friday saw an extremely sharp selling spree led by UK and exacerbated by domestic data (consumer inflation expectations). Yields end...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 9:09 PM
Unsurprisingly, the market remains intently focused on inflation as the key driver of Fed policy and rate volatility. This week, the biggest inflation...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 4:28 PM
Even When It's Good, It's Bad
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and E...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 12:32 PM
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and Europe. Kwarteng, the British Finance Minister who kicked off the worst ...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 5:00 PM
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal?
Bonds may have ended the day in negative territory, but t...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 4:22 PM
There was no way to be sure what the effect of today's economic data would be on mortgage rates. All we knew is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) w...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 11:42 AM
Pretty simple this morning, at first anyway. Bonds hoped to see just a modicum of relief in the most important data series of 2022, the Consumer Pric...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates ended the day at slightly lower levels compared to the close of business yesterday. That's the first time rates have fallen day-over-d...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 4:16 PM
Fully Free to Focus on CPI After Tuesday's Uneventful Data and Events
Bonds shrugged off this morning's PPI ...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 12:42 PM
Bonds had a mixed overnight session with modest gains initially and moderate losses during European hours. In a bit of a break from the norm, German ...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 3:42 PM
Bonds Dodge British Bullet But Still Fighting For Survival
The overnight session and especially yesterday's ...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 2:34 PM
For many of the holidays in the US bond market, relevant overseas bond markets are also closed. The opposite is true on several occasions with Indige...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 12:05 PM
The holiday trading session was dominated by another snowball sell-off in British bonds with the UK 10yr yield rising more than 30bps. Much like last...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 7:30 PM
The resilience of the economy is a matter of debate with different cases to be made depending on the data. But when it comes to the Fed's favorite rep...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 4:24 PM
Logical Outcome For Bonds. Still Waiting on Data to Tell a New Story
The jobs report came in just slightly a...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 11:37 AM
Jobs are great for people who like eat food and buy things, but too many jobs are bad for people who like low rates. And when the labor market is bei...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 4:25 PM
Weakest Levels of The Week Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds sold off mid-morning after starting off relatively fla...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates were refreshingly lower at the beginning of the week with most lenders continuing to improve through Tuesday afternoon. Much has chang...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 12:15 PM
Without commenting on the odds of any particular outcome, Thursday can't help but fill the role of "placeholder" given the proximity of tomorrow's big...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 4:19 PM
The mortgage rate world has been on a wild ride in general, and even more so in the past few weeks. The crux of the drama was a British fiscal policy...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 4:08 PM
Confirmation of What We Probably Already Knew
Bonds began the day in weaker territory after a slew of "not-t...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 9:58 AM
As feared, the recent rally in the bond market is quickly proving that it was fueled by a correction from panicked levels surrounding the UK drama in ...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 4:53 PM
We're measuring our mortgage rate spikes in terms of years and decades at the moment. Progress in the other direction has been elusive--especially si...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 4:36 PM
Bonds Might Have Lost Ground Today if Not For Big Data Surprise
Bonds ended up scratching out modest gains t...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 1:01 PM
Bonds got off to a decent start in the overnight session with help from a lower-than-expected rate hike from the RBA (Australia's central bank) and on...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 3:28 PM
Nice Rally, But Not Out of The Woods Yet
Bonds rallied in two distinct waves on Monday. The first came in ...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 2:54 PM
Mortgage rates remain elevated in the context of the past decade and 2022 in general, but they continue making progress after hitting long-term highs ...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 11:12 AM
Bond yields trickled sideways to slightly stronger to start the overnight session, but experienced better gains as the big news out of the UK made the...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 8:48 PM
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 4:25 PM
Month-End Selling Keeps Rates Range-Bound
You've perhaps heard of month-end bond buying? How about month-en...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 12:04 PM
Today's calendar may have contained what the Fed refers to as its preferred inflation metric (Core PCE price index), but it was never likely to be a b...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 5:31 PM
"The following information is deemed reliable only through September 29th, 2022. After that, rates could be as much as .25-.50% higher or lower. " E...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 4:26 PM
Data Dependent Reality Keeps Bonds in Check
Wednesday's emergency bond buying announcement from the BOE serv...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 9:51 AM
Wednesday's rally offered hope after the BOE stepped in with emergency bond buying. The overnight session that followed painted a slightly less hopef...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 5:33 PM
If you're just getting caught up, mortgage rates broke above 7% yesterday for the first time since 2002. Read our coverage to learn more about why ra...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 4:57 PM
Is Wednesday's Rally Enough to Turn The Tide?
10yr yields began the day with overnight levels easily over 4....
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 1:21 PM
Bond biggest recent issues were caused by a fiscal announcement in the UK that would drastically increase debt and decrease revenue (read: inflationar...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 4:19 PM
Beware The False Hope in MBS Today
MBS ended up with a nice little rally after 2pm that brought prices 3/8th...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 1:49 PM
It's no mystery that mortgage rates have been moving relentlessly higher in 2022. But how high is high? That will depend on a number of factors, incl...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 12:19 PM
While there's no way to know exactly when it will happen, there's always some point at the end of an epic sell-off where prices have dropped enough to...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 4:52 PM
The most recent historical high water market for mortgage rates was "14 years." It was broken so many times in September that we officially declared ...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 4:23 PM
Why do US Rates Suddenly Care About The UK?
If you're just getting caught up, UK fiscal policy is probably a...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 11:36 AM
After a glimmer of hope at the end of last week, bonds are back to their old tricks. Actually, they only have one trick recently: selling-off at a fa...
Fri, Sep 23 2022, 4:44 PM
Let's Talk About Whether It's Time To Talk About Some Resilience
A large, rapid rate spike is frequently one...
Fri, Sep 23 2022, 12:40 PM
The positive close on a volatile Fed day offered false hope for rates--a fact that was laid bare with Thursday's massive sell-off. Now on Friday, mor...
Thu, Sep 22 2022, 7:39 PM
At the close of business yesterday, there was hope. Well, to be fair, there's still hope, but it's much less immediate, and it certainly isn't the fi...
Thu, Sep 22 2022, 3:30 PM
Why So Much Selling Today Instead of Yesterday?
Today is one of those interesting and massive selling sprees...
