Thu, Sep 22 2022, 11:47 AM
The market made it through yesterday's Fed announcement in deceptively sideways fashion as far as bonds were concerned. 7-10yr Treasuries managed mod...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 6:15 PM
The Fed hiked rates today by 0.75%, and mortgage rates moved lower. If you don't understand how those two things can happen on the same day, read thi...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 6:01 PM
Stunningly Sideways After an Important Fed Day
By the time the Fed announcement rolled around, the financ...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators of point to modest growth in spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job production. Job gains have been robust in...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 9:59 AM
The following is a copy and paste from a previous piece that always bears repeating on Fed day. If you've seen it before, there's nothing new here. ...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 8:57 AM
There continue to be headlines regarding some sort of "mobilization" of troops with the most recent seeing Putin claim that the West is threatening Ru...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 4:02 PM
Since last week's inflation data, mortgage rates have pushed up to new 14 year highs every single day--not even "almost" every day, but every last one...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 3:45 PM
Here's What Matters on Fed Day
Bonds sold off some more today because why not?! 10yr yields were more invol...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 10:23 AM
The overnight session was frustrating exercise in "position-squaring," which is a term we often use as a sort of generic, hifalutin way of saying "tha...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates had another moderately bad day to start the new week. The unfortunate thing about moderately bad days that occur when rates were alrea...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 4:22 PM
Bond Buyers on Strike Until They Hear From The Fed
There were a few way the run up to this week's Fed announ...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 11:20 AM
It's an understatement to say that "all eyes are on the Fed" this Wednesday as the committee meets to decide whether to hike 75 vs 100bps, among other...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 5:08 PM
Traders Hit Snooze Button, With Next Alarm Set For Fed Day
Nothing really happened in the bond market today ...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 5:07 PM
By this time next week, we will have heard from the Fed as they announce the next rate hike on September 21st. It will be big too. Just how big is a...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 11:39 AM
Whereas an investor knows the rate of return on something like a Treasury note, MBS require a bit of guesswork because borrowers can opt to sell or re...
Thu, Sep 15 2022, 4:49 PM
The internet, TV, and even public radio stations were buzzing all day with groundbreaking news on mortgage rates. Apparently, for the first time in 1...
Thu, Sep 15 2022, 4:25 PM
Have Bonds Lost Enough Ground to Imply Some Relief?
Rates are as high as they've been in 14 years and have m...
Thu, Sep 15 2022, 11:29 AM
Bonds traded an almost perfectly straight, gradually-sloped line toward higher yields overnight and were even able to mostly ignore moderate volatilit...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 5:25 PM
The mortgage market is no stranger to excitement in 2022. Unfortunately, it hasn't been the good kind of excitement. That's especially true of the p...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 4:53 PM
Slow and Sideways as Markets Wait For Bigger News
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory but ral...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 11:47 AM
While it continues to be the case that upcoming economic data and next week's Fed announcement are more than capable of taking bonds into new high yie...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 3:31 PM
Unfortunate, But Logical Reaction to Much Hotter Core Inflation
Markets had been waiting on today's CPI repo...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 3:29 PM
Mortgage rates were already in the vicinity of the highest levels in 14 years. With large day-to-day swings being extremely common these days, we wer...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 9:57 AM
We knew there was a lot riding on today's CPI data and that it was highly likely to inspire a big move higher or lower for bonds if it came in much hi...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, but only after moving slightly lower earlier this morning. "Higher" and "lower" are more informative if...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 3:53 PM
Potentially Decent Day Turns Sour After 10yr Treasury Auction
The first day of the new week began innocently...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 10:02 AM
There are times when a particular event garners too much attention as the most important consideration for bond market momentum. If any event were to...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 8:12 PM
It's certainly already been an interesting year for financial markets--especially for housing and interest rates. But most of what's happened over the...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 8:12 PM
Fairly Inconsequential Friday Ahead of a Very Consequential Week Ahead
Despite feeling like a bumpy ride at times, the bond market actually didn...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 12:21 PM
Bonds had a respectable overnight session with steady gains seen mostly during European hours. Then in the early part of the domestic session, it was...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 5:15 PM
It was an interesting day for mortgage rates due to the timing of movement in the underlying bond market. Bond prices/yields are the primary ingredie...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 4:43 PM
Bonds Close Weaker After Early Volatility and Late-Day Illiquidity
As has been the case for so many afternoo...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 11:36 AM
Fairly simple morning so far: the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked its policy rate by the expected 75bps. There wasn't much of a reaction to that. ...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates spiked quickly to open the holiday-shortened week with the average 30yr fixed rate coming very close to the 14-year high seen on June 1...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 4:49 PM
Nice Push Back Against Tuesday's Weakness. ECB On Deck
Tuesday was brutal and the only real explanation for...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 11:56 AM
Corporate bond issuance is one of those slightly esoteric concepts to the average rate watcher and usually a completely foreign concept to the average...
Tue, Sep 6 2022, 4:57 PM
As we discussed last week, there is unprecedented volatility in mortgage rates at the moment. It's not that we're seeing record setting swings from d...
Tue, Sep 6 2022, 4:27 PM
Steady Afternoon Leaves Steep AM Losses Intact
Today's recap could just as easily be this morning's commenta...
Tue, Sep 6 2022, 10:53 AM
Summertime seasonality is one of the worst kept secrets among bond forecasters. Simply put, since 2010, this is only the 3rd year where yields haven'...
Fri, Sep 2 2022, 5:40 PM
Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally
Anything over 300k is big number for nonfarm payrolls. Toda...
Fri, Sep 2 2022, 5:16 PM
It's a tremendously important and volatile time for the market and especially for interest rates. The biggest inflation surge in decades pushed rates...
Fri, Sep 2 2022, 11:05 AM
For weeks on end, it's been "sell first and ask questions later" for the bond market. Any econ data that's been at least halfway decent has been at r...
Thu, Sep 1 2022, 4:40 PM
Where We Are, Where We Might Be Going, And How We Might Get There
The first day of September found a way to ...
Thu, Sep 1 2022, 3:12 PM
As recently as late July, it wasn't outside the realm of possibility to see certain lenders quoting conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rates in the high...
Thu, Sep 1 2022, 10:36 AM
Imagine hosting a cocktail party with guests arriving and departing at random times. A particularly rowdy and unpleasant guest--let's call them "Augu...
Wed, Aug 31 2022, 4:44 PM
The last day of August was also the worst day for rates in August. In fact, it was the worse than any of July as well and not too terribly far from t...
Wed, Aug 31 2022, 4:28 PM
So Long August. Don't Let The Door Hit Ya!
July! We miss you!
August, please leave!
Hopefully Septemb...
Wed, Aug 31 2022, 12:15 PM
If you've been surprised by the extent to which US bonds have been hit by European inflation reports in the past month, you're not alone. Granted, th...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, and bond traders have a lot on their minds these days. After trading rates up to the highest levels in ...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 4:30 PM
Sideways Afternoon After Volatile Morning
"Hypervigilant volatility." Get used to seeing that new phrase as...
