Tue, Aug 30 2022, 10:57 AM
Hypervigilant volatility in response to data and policy comments is the order of the day/week/month as traders assume central bankers are more impress...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates managed to breathe a decent sigh of relief last Friday as the bond market remained fairly calm despite stock market weakness following ...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 4:12 PM
Jackson Hole Follow-Through or Something Else?
Last Friday's Jackson Hole speech was the subject of a fair a...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 12:52 PM
While there certainly wasn't anything surprising in last Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, much of the market seems to have been sur...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 5:04 PM
How Did Powell Bring The Pain With As-Expected Remarks?
This morning, we said the bond market appropriately ...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 4:34 PM
While it was never likely to contain too many surprises, this week's much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell served as an important...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 11:04 AM
Powell's Jackson Hole speech may as well have been written in advance by anyone who's done a remotely good job of paying attention to recent Fed comme...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 4:37 PM
It Doesn't Matter if Powell's Speech Matters
Some things will be yearned for, anticipated, and sought after ...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 4:08 PM
Tomorrow morning brings a much anticipated appearance from Fed Chair Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. As is often the case leading up to ...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 11:46 AM
Bonds were already trading fairly sideways in the overnight session and only experienced modest volatility after this morning's economic data. Unless...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 5:11 PM
Right off the bat, it's worth mentioning that many mortgage quotes are already over 6% for a variety of reasons. But when it comes to the "going rate...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 4:24 PM
More Weakness. Is This All About The Fed?
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger shape but began to sell ...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 10:46 AM
The unfriendly trend remains firmly intact this morning with 10yr yields up several more bps and MBS down another quarter point despite mixed economic...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 4:29 PM
Fun While it Lasted: Bonds Give Up Data-Inspired Gains
Bonds started out weaker early this morning but were ...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 3:32 PM
Today's mortgage rates are roughly in line with yesterday's for the average lender. Some are in better shape while others are slightly worse off depe...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 11:34 AM
Be still, our beating hearts! This morning's economic data came out weaker and bonds instantly engaged in a logical and sensibly-sized rally. Tradin...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 4:30 PM
Unfriendly Trend as Fed Fear Sets In
Without any obvious, individual motivations in the news or on the econ ...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 4:01 PM
At the end of July, the prevailing concern in the mortgage industry was that rates were falling at an unhealthy pace. The good news is that as we app...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds don't have too much so stress about this week in terms of calendar events. The notable exception is Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech on F...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 5:15 PM
Bonds Tank After EU Inflation Data
For those who caught this morning's commentary on European inflation data...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 4:45 PM
The average mortgage rate headline among major news networks suggests things improved this week. The average headline is wrong . Don't blame the new...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 12:55 PM
Yesterday ended with yields grinding into an ever narrower consolidation pattern with 2.91% serving as the ceiling in the 10yr. That's exactly where ...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 4:36 PM
It was a very boring day for mortgage rates. There was no meaningful change versus yesterday's latest levels and there were almost no instances of mi...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 4:02 PM
Consolidation Continues as Yields Avoid Both Floors and Ceilings
Whereas 10yr yields were willing to tempora...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 11:53 AM
The 2.91% technical level in 10yr yields held firm as a ceiling overnight and domestic traders began pushing a lower-yield agenda in the 7am hour. At...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 4:34 PM
Citing "surprising reasons" in a headline is only a few steps above "one weird trick" on the click-bait scale, but in today's case, it's warranted. ...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 4:19 PM
UK Inflation Data Steals Show From Domestic Market Movers
Today's Retail Sales report and Fed Minutes were s...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 11:03 AM
This morning's Retail Sales data is already out and it was close enough to forecast to avoid having a big impact on bonds. Unfortunately, overnight t...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 4:22 PM
Saying "ahead of Fed Minutes" in a headline about rates is a fairly cheap trick for a few reasons, or at least it can be. In today's case, it probabl...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 3:57 PM
Inconsequentially Weaker and Increasingly Range-Bound
The word "range" appears in both the opening and closi...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 10:56 AM
Tuesday is getting off to a similar start to Monday when it comes to the level of movement, but this time around, it's in the opposite direction. Dep...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 5:11 PM
After rising above 6% in June and falling briefly below 5% by August 1st, mortgage rates have been calming down and staying slightly flatter in the bi...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 5:01 PM
Super Sideways Summertime Monday
Oddly enough, we find ourselves more likely to be discussing summertime tra...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 10:07 AM
The previous week ended with bonds on the run and yields threatening to break up and over the 2.85% technical level. That breakout was somewhat incon...
Fri, Aug 12 2022, 5:28 PM
Stable and Sideways Now That Rates Are Back in The Range
The past two days had seen more volatility in rates...
Fri, Aug 12 2022, 5:05 PM
Fri, Aug 12 2022, 11:45 AM
Summertime trading is detectably different from the rest of the year. Volume and liquidity are a bit lighter. Counterintuitive moves are more common...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 5:56 PM
When it comes to mortgage rates, Thursdays frequently lend themselves to a discussion about fact versus fiction (or "delayed fact" as it may be) in ne...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 5:21 PM
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
Let's refresh our memories regarding 2022's bond trading...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 12:57 PM
Up is down, old is new, green is red, etc. Here we are with a second straight day with inflation data coming in significantly lower than forecast and...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 5:37 PM
First thing's first: we deal in extremely granular terms when it comes to mortgage rate movement here. If you're just looking for an idea of how toda...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 5:02 PM
How In The World Did Bonds Lose Ground After a Big Drop in Inflation?
This morning's hotly anticipated CPI d...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 12:24 PM
Reliably predicting the future in terms of directional market movement is tricky if not wholly impossible, but predicting higher odds of volatility is...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates had a bad day last Friday, rising at a very fast pace and ultimately making it almost all the way back to the previous week's highs. T...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 4:24 PM
Tuesday Was Tame, But Wednesday Probably Won't Be
Tuesday's trading session was boring, with rates hitting d...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 11:16 AM
Last week offered up decent bookends for a narrow, short-term range. A series of downbeat economic reports set the low yields last Monday. Then Fed ...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 4:13 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient Despite Supply-Related Headwinds
Supply and Demand 101 tells us that higher supply me...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 9:41 AM
Although Friday's post-payrolls sell-off was unpleasant for the bond market in the context of a single trading day, it was arguably a resilient showin...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 6:55 PM
The big monthly jobs report from the Labor Department (officially "The Employment Situation) is one of the most reliable sources of volatility for int...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 3:57 PM
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the ...
