Tue, Jun 14 2022, 5:31 PM
Yes, mortgage rates really moved above 6% yesterday for the first time since 2008. Yesterday's coverage addressed the core of the matter (definitely ...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 4:53 PM
Lock or Float Ahead of The Fed?
Ideally, you've been locking at app all month as the only argument for float...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 12:00 PM
***REQUIRED READING for anyone who doesn't fully understand why the 4.5 UMBS coupon is far better to follow than the 5.0 intraday (for now).***
The...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:57 PM
It's hard to quantify just how bad today was for mortgage rates because there's no quality day-over-day mortgage rate data from before 2009 (when we c...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:07 PM
One of The 5 Worst Days in Over a Decade
At one point today, bonds had lost more ground than any other day i...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 12:53 PM
Bonds had two options after last Friday's sell-off. They could either take a few lumps and get back to the business of looking for a long-term ceilin...
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 10:58 PM
2022 has already had its fair share of bad news for mortgage rates, but this week was not to be outdone. It began as just another reasonably bad week...
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 4:04 PM
Bonds Obliterated by CPI Reaction and Fed Fear
If the bond market is forced to digest a surprisingly hot inf...
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 12:42 PM
As feared, today's CPI data has proven to be the most capable market mover of the week, by a wide margin. Unfortunately, that volatility is playing o...
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 3:37 PM
Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI
The end of the week is marked by a battle with 3-letter ab...
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 3:18 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher this morning as the bond market reacted to a new policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). If you're thin...
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 11:39 AM
As has been the case for most of the past 2 weeks, European bonds have been arguing for a move to higher rates and US bonds have been reluctantly foll...
Wed, Jun 8 2022, 4:48 PM
Rates jumped significantly higher last week and have continued drifting up at a gradual pace since then. The average lender remains in territory that...
Wed, Jun 8 2022, 4:13 PM
Yields Quickly Forced to Defend Monday's Ceiling
Bonds started off on the defensive today with a weaker hand...
Wed, Jun 8 2022, 11:55 AM
After a bumpy start to the week on Monday, the bond market is still trying to define a sideways range that serves as a waiting room where traders will...
Tue, Jun 7 2022, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily determined by mortgage-specific bonds (MBS, or mortgage-backed securities to be exact). MBS share similarities with the ...
Tue, Jun 7 2022, 3:24 PM
Is Today's Bounce Enough to Reinforce the Range?
After 5 straight trading days of weakness and 3 stubborn da...
Tue, Jun 7 2022, 9:43 AM
At the risk of repeating ourselves regarding bond market trends of the past few months, 2022's initial rate rout clearly gave way to something more 's...
Mon, Jun 6 2022, 4:19 PM
Bonds Surprised by Supply Even Though They Knew Supply Was Coming
Whether in reference to the regularly sche...
Mon, Jun 6 2022, 3:53 PM
Last week's mortgage rate momentum served to reverse 3 of the best consecutive weeks in nearly a year--themselves a reversal of the worst 4 months sin...
Mon, Jun 6 2022, 11:49 AM
The week begins with bonds adding to recent losses as yields move back toward the top of the prevailing sideways range. There are several ways to app...
Fri, Jun 3 2022, 6:05 PM
By last Friday, rates had improved so much from recent highs that we were finally able to consider that 2022's trend had shifted gears from "skyrocket...
Fri, Jun 3 2022, 4:18 PM
Why Bonds Reacted to Such a Small Beat in The Jobs Data
In today's jobs report, headline payrolls came in at...
Thu, Jun 2 2022, 4:53 PM
Mortgage rates jumped higher at a fairly quick pace during the first 2 days of the week (in this case, Tue/Wed due to Memorial Day holiday). Today br...
Thu, Jun 2 2022, 4:39 PM
Do Bonds Care About Jobs Data Again?
Yesterday it was the ISM Manufacturing data that moved the bond market....
Thu, Jun 2 2022, 11:44 AM
For those that prefer not to overcomplicate things, the current bond market environment can be summed up with one quick concept: rates have broadly le...
Wed, Jun 1 2022, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher for the 2nd straight day this week. On both days, the pace has been brisk by historical standards. In terms of the avera...
Wed, Jun 1 2022, 4:10 PM
Ceiling Looking Too Low After ISM Data Reaction
Yields may have failed to break below a floor of 2.72% last ...
Wed, Jun 1 2022, 9:45 AM
10yr yields weren't able to break convincingly below 2.72% after multiple attempts in the previous week. Friday's final attempt was definitively crus...
Tue, May 31 2022, 4:52 PM
As of last Friday, mortgage rates had enjoyed 3 of their best weeks in a long time. Sure, there were caveats that argued against celebrating the gain...
Tue, May 31 2022, 4:31 PM
Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains
The last 3 weeks of May were like an oasis in what has otherwise...
Tue, May 31 2022, 11:51 AM
10yr yields bounced at or near 2.72% for 4 straight days heading into the end of last week. Now this morning, they're sharply higher and already abov...
Fri, May 27 2022, 4:30 PM
The housing market has been keeping its head down, keeping calm, and carrying on in the face of the biggest rate spike since the 1980s. The ability t...
Fri, May 27 2022, 4:20 PM
"Little-Changed" Friday, Both For Bonds and Inflation
Today begins with the much-anticipated PCE inflation d...
Fri, May 27 2022, 12:12 PM
Today begins with the much-anticipated PCE inflation data coming in right in line with expectations. The result: a bond market that was already mostl...
Thu, May 26 2022, 5:21 PM
Rate Ceiling Considerations Ahead of Inflation Data
Rates/bonds were under pressure ahead of today's 7yr Tre...
Wed, May 25 2022, 5:48 PM
Bonds Holding Gains Despite Bounce in Stocks; Fed Minutes Uneventful
Today's Fed Minutes proved to be every ...
Wed, May 25 2022, 5:46 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today, bringing them even deeper into their best levels in over a month, but caveats abound. First off. They're still quit...
Wed, May 25 2022, 10:02 AM
In the run up to the most recent Fed announcement, the 50bp rate hike was a foregone conclusion. There was some uncertainty about how the Fed would a...
Tue, May 24 2022, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates have generally been moving lower for more than 2 weeks now. Today's gains were enough to bring them to their best levels in just over ...
Tue, May 24 2022, 4:23 PM
Rate Rally Returns With Help From Housing Data
How about a good, old-fashioned market reaction to weaker eco...
Tue, May 24 2022, 11:31 AM
Another day, another headline with the word "stocks." Yesterday it was a stock market recovery pulling bond yields higher. Today it's renewed weakne...
Mon, May 23 2022, 4:37 PM
Stock Lever Cuts Both Ways as Yields Bounce Higher
While the gains seen in the bond market over the past 2 w...
Mon, May 23 2022, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates are coming off their best 2 weeks in quite some time--a feat that sounds more impressive than it is by the time we consider the precurs...
Mon, May 23 2022, 12:11 PM
By last Friday, not only had the bond market seen a 2-week improvement for the first time all year, but the ground covered during those 2 weeks was bi...
Fri, May 20 2022, 11:44 AM
The entire week has been dominated by a close correlation between stock prices and bonds yields. This has been especially noticeable after 9:30am ET ...
Thu, May 19 2022, 5:01 PM
A brutally fast spike to the highest rates in more than a decade comes with some decent consolation prizes. Over the past 2 weeks, it has allowed the...
Thu, May 19 2022, 4:48 PM
How Low Can Stocks Go? (Bonds Want to Know)
Bonds improved overnight and again after this morning's Philly ...
Thu, May 19 2022, 9:26 AM
Remember when the Fed began to abruptly revise its policy tightening pace at the start of the year and both stocks and bonds began to sell off? That'...
Wed, May 18 2022, 4:37 PM
There has been a lot of volatility in the bond market recently. Because bonds drive interest rate changes, that's meant plenty of volatility in the m...
