Wed, May 6 2020, 10:44 AM
When someone asks a salty old bond market person why rates are doing what they'd doing, they might get a seemingly dismissive reply: "supply and deman...
Tue, May 5 2020, 9:38 AM
Despite being in a narrow range in the bigger picture, 10yr Treasury yields have generally been moving moderately higher since April 21st. MBS have m...
Mon, May 4 2020, 10:28 AM
The Federal Reserve's capacity and willingness to engage in aggressive easing measures is often described as a "bazooka." This likens it to an imprec...
Fri, May 1 2020, 10:46 AM
In the day ahead, bonds will digest manufacturing PMI data, both from IHS-Markit and ISM. While these PMIs are typically big market movers--potential...
Thu, Apr 30 2020, 8:47 AM
January, February, and especially March were wild months for bond market volatility. Coronavirus was increasingly responsible for that volatility dur...
Wed, Apr 29 2020, 10:42 AM
This morning, GDP came out at -4.8%, the lowest reading since Q1, 2009. The Fed announcement and press conference will be out this afternoon. But th...
Tue, Apr 28 2020, 9:24 AM
Trillions of dollars of stimulus on the Fiscal side and many additional trillions of liquidity on the monetary side of the equation are helping stocks...
Mon, Apr 27 2020, 9:16 AM
After weeks and weeks spent discussing the impacts on growth surrounding coronavirus, we're only now getting to the very first release of GDP for Q1. ...
Fri, Apr 24 2020, 11:34 AM
Given the size and scope of the unemployment/forbearance issue, mortgage investors have been rightfully concerned about the timeliness of payments, an...
Thu, Apr 23 2020, 10:03 AM
I'm making an executive decision. It's time to simplify the discussion even more than we already have when it comes to what's freaking the mortgage...
Wed, Apr 22 2020, 1:24 PM
The initial House draft of the CARES Act included a provision that Fed and Treasury would "extend credit to mortgage servicers that have liquidity nee...
Wed, Apr 22 2020, 9:36 AM
While there may be a good amount of drama and suspense when it comes to watching coronavirus take its toll on the economy, there's no mystery. This ...
Tue, Apr 21 2020, 9:22 AM
Given that yields are in an extremely low range with no past precedent, it's easy to glance at the chart, shrug one's shoulders, and conclude "oh well...
Mon, Apr 20 2020, 9:53 AM
This week is relatively limited in terms of economic data. We will get our first look at big home sales reports for March (both "New" and "Existing")...
Fri, Apr 17 2020, 3:21 PM
There was a sharp sell-off in the bond market on Friday afternoon--at least relative to the day's relatively calm trading patterns--as the Fed once ag...
Fri, Apr 17 2020, 9:46 AM
If I accidentally jinxed it, the damage was already done in yesterday's MBS Huddle video, so we might as well talk about it. "Talk about what," you m...
Thu, Apr 16 2020, 10:25 AM
Coronavirus has made for some of the biggest market movement and volatility in the history of financial markets. It's also resulted in a wide range o...
Wed, Apr 15 2020, 8:29 AM
There's no question that financial markets have done a great deal to price-in the anticipated economic impact of coronavirus, but have they done enoug...
Tue, Apr 14 2020, 11:09 AM
There's a bit of 20/20 hindsight in the observation that MBS strength could/should only last for so long before experiencing a bit of a correction. I...
Mon, Apr 13 2020, 10:10 AM
Markets have already shown how well they understand the uniquely massive economic toll taken by coronavirus. That's why we're able to see things like...
Thu, Apr 9 2020, 3:37 PM
The Fed announced new lending programs totaling $2.3 trillion this morning. The Fed had recently alluded to "additional tools" at its disposal to sup...
Wed, Apr 8 2020, 12:08 PM
Any discussion about the challenges faced by a particular industry or even by a particular household requires the same acknowledgement right up front...
Mon, Apr 6 2020, 10:58 AM
Here's this week's Fed MBS Purchase Schedule.
The daily amount is down from a recent peak of $50 bln to $25 bln . So does that mean the Fed is o...
Thu, Apr 2 2020, 10:41 AM
Many people have "expert sources" they rely on for insight to potential market movers. I understand this quite well. On the one hand , I used to be...
Wed, Apr 1 2020, 9:43 AM
This morning's ADP Employment showed a loss of 27k jobs. Forecasts called for a loss of 150k jobs compared to last month's report that was strongly p...
Tue, Mar 31 2020, 2:27 PM
CURRENT FED MBS BUYING SCHEDULE AND PURCHASE LOOKUP TOOL
I'm changing up this Q&A to make it shorter, denser, and better. If it's too pithy for you...
Tue, Mar 31 2020, 9:42 AM
I don't know much about porridge. I'm not even sure I've ever eaten it. I do know one thing about it though: the temperature has to be "just right" ...
Mon, Mar 30 2020, 12:19 AM
Here is this week's MBS buying calendar.
It differs from last week's in that there is now only $40bln of purchases per day rather than $50bln.
S...
Fri, Mar 27 2020, 10:50 AM
I devoted years of my life championing the cause of educating mortgage originators on the realities of MBS price movement. The most compelling call...
Thu, Mar 26 2020, 5:17 PM
I will do my best to speak to both consumer and mortgage industry people on this topic. It affects everyone. With that in mind, the following is a l...
Wed, Mar 25 2020, 9:26 AM
It's no secret that volatility has been a big deal in the bond market (and most other markets) recently. But there's no comparing the drama seen in T...
Tue, Mar 24 2020, 11:49 AM
This page is now your official resource for the week when it comes to ANY AND ALL questions pertaining to what the Fed is doing in the mortgage market...
Tue, Mar 24 2020, 9:49 AM
Hit the comment section if we're missing anything and we'll get it updated to keep this as an up-to-date list of COVID-related changes to underwriting...
Mon, Mar 23 2020, 9:52 AM
There was a time when several billion dollars a day of Fed MBS purchases was considered a lot. Then the Fed's coronavirus response happened.
The Fe...
Wed, Mar 18 2020, 10:47 AM
Everyone has a lot to digest right now. The average human on planet earth is no different from the entire financial market in that regard. We're und...
Tue, Mar 17 2020, 9:57 AM
There is some interesting stuff going on with global bond markets. Even as COVID ravages Europe, benchmark yields (German 10yr) are soaring relative ...
Mon, Mar 16 2020, 9:44 AM
If you haven't seen the details of the over-the-weekend emergency Fed announcement, read this: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/93...
Fri, Mar 13 2020, 1:01 PM
Let's clear a few things up.
The Fed was already buying $60bln / month of bonds. Yesterday's announcement meant that the composition of those bond...
Thu, Mar 12 2020, 10:18 AM
Another day, another false start confirmed for the stock market. More specifically, the modest bounce in stocks that was intact on Tuesday afternoon ...
Wed, Mar 11 2020, 12:46 PM
Just before 11am, we saw a move in MBS like few we've experienced since the financial crisis. WELL before the correlated move in Treasuries, MBS pric...
Wed, Mar 11 2020, 9:32 AM
Yesterday brought a fairly significant sell-off to the bond market and a slightly less significant rally to the stock market. Granted, the 4% improve...
Tue, Mar 10 2020, 9:30 AM
If you're looking at the world through the lens of an epidemiologist, CDC employee, airline CEO, the stock market, the economy, or person over 65 livi...
Mon, Mar 9 2020, 11:43 AM
Overnight market panic made for some truly spectacular movement in the bond market with the 10yr Treasury yield down more than 40 bps at one point to ...
Fri, Mar 6 2020, 10:58 AM
At the moment I'm typing this, 10yr Treasury yields are 40 basis points lower than they were at the end of last week. This hasn't happened since the ...
Thu, Mar 5 2020, 8:00 AM
A bit of a diversion from the typical "Day Ahead" this morning as I came across an interesting assertion while talking about mortgage rates with some ...
Wed, Mar 4 2020, 7:08 PM
Gigantic bond rallies resulting in all-time rate lows have some side effects. One of them is that we subsequently find ourselves wondering if each re...
Wed, Mar 4 2020, 3:37 PM
I was surprised to open up shop this morning and find yields and MBS right about where we left them yesterday afternoon. I was also surprised yesterd...
Tue, Mar 3 2020, 12:42 PM
The Fed announced an emergency rate cut of 50bps today (0.50%). Great! So your mortgage rate could be 0.5% lower, right?
WRONG!
And to be cl...
Mon, Mar 2 2020, 5:15 PM
There is always that one stomach-churning day that arrives in the midst of an epic bond rally that makes you question everything. Well, perhaps we do...
Mon, Mar 2 2020, 9:58 AM
I'm not an infectious disease specialist. I haven't been staying up all night reading all available literature on coronavirus (CV). But best I can t...
MBS Market Alerts
