Tue, Mar 31 2020, 2:27 PM
CURRENT FED MBS BUYING SCHEDULE AND PURCHASE LOOKUP TOOL
I'm changing up this Q&A to make it shorter, denser, and better. If it's too pithy for you...
Tue, Mar 31 2020, 9:42 AM
I don't know much about porridge. I'm not even sure I've ever eaten it. I do know one thing about it though: the temperature has to be "just right" ...
Mon, Mar 30 2020, 12:19 AM
Here is this week's MBS buying calendar.
It differs from last week's in that there is now only $40bln of purchases per day rather than $50bln.
S...
Fri, Mar 27 2020, 10:50 AM
I devoted years of my life championing the cause of educating mortgage originators on the realities of MBS price movement. The most compelling call...
Thu, Mar 26 2020, 5:17 PM
I will do my best to speak to both consumer and mortgage industry people on this topic. It affects everyone. With that in mind, the following is a l...
Wed, Mar 25 2020, 9:26 AM
It's no secret that volatility has been a big deal in the bond market (and most other markets) recently. But there's no comparing the drama seen in T...
Tue, Mar 24 2020, 11:49 AM
This page is now your official resource for the week when it comes to ANY AND ALL questions pertaining to what the Fed is doing in the mortgage market...
Tue, Mar 24 2020, 9:49 AM
Hit the comment section if we're missing anything and we'll get it updated to keep this as an up-to-date list of COVID-related changes to underwriting...
Mon, Mar 23 2020, 9:52 AM
There was a time when several billion dollars a day of Fed MBS purchases was considered a lot. Then the Fed's coronavirus response happened.
The Fe...
Wed, Mar 18 2020, 10:47 AM
Everyone has a lot to digest right now. The average human on planet earth is no different from the entire financial market in that regard. We're und...
Tue, Mar 17 2020, 9:57 AM
There is some interesting stuff going on with global bond markets. Even as COVID ravages Europe, benchmark yields (German 10yr) are soaring relative ...
Mon, Mar 16 2020, 9:44 AM
If you haven't seen the details of the over-the-weekend emergency Fed announcement, read this: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/93...
Fri, Mar 13 2020, 1:01 PM
Let's clear a few things up.
The Fed was already buying $60bln / month of bonds. Yesterday's announcement meant that the composition of those bond...
Thu, Mar 12 2020, 10:18 AM
Another day, another false start confirmed for the stock market. More specifically, the modest bounce in stocks that was intact on Tuesday afternoon ...
Wed, Mar 11 2020, 12:46 PM
Just before 11am, we saw a move in MBS like few we've experienced since the financial crisis. WELL before the correlated move in Treasuries, MBS pric...
Wed, Mar 11 2020, 9:32 AM
Yesterday brought a fairly significant sell-off to the bond market and a slightly less significant rally to the stock market. Granted, the 4% improve...
Tue, Mar 10 2020, 9:30 AM
If you're looking at the world through the lens of an epidemiologist, CDC employee, airline CEO, the stock market, the economy, or person over 65 livi...
Mon, Mar 9 2020, 11:43 AM
Overnight market panic made for some truly spectacular movement in the bond market with the 10yr Treasury yield down more than 40 bps at one point to ...
Fri, Mar 6 2020, 10:58 AM
At the moment I'm typing this, 10yr Treasury yields are 40 basis points lower than they were at the end of last week. This hasn't happened since the ...
Thu, Mar 5 2020, 8:00 AM
A bit of a diversion from the typical "Day Ahead" this morning as I came across an interesting assertion while talking about mortgage rates with some ...
Wed, Mar 4 2020, 7:08 PM
Gigantic bond rallies resulting in all-time rate lows have some side effects. One of them is that we subsequently find ourselves wondering if each re...
Wed, Mar 4 2020, 3:37 PM
I was surprised to open up shop this morning and find yields and MBS right about where we left them yesterday afternoon. I was also surprised yesterd...
Tue, Mar 3 2020, 12:42 PM
The Fed announced an emergency rate cut of 50bps today (0.50%). Great! So your mortgage rate could be 0.5% lower, right?
WRONG!
And to be cl...
Mon, Mar 2 2020, 5:15 PM
There is always that one stomach-churning day that arrives in the midst of an epic bond rally that makes you question everything. Well, perhaps we do...
Mon, Mar 2 2020, 9:58 AM
I'm not an infectious disease specialist. I haven't been staying up all night reading all available literature on coronavirus (CV). But best I can t...
Fri, Feb 28 2020, 11:40 AM
This post will focus mostly on the charts, which many of you have requested, as I need to turn my focus toward a few other things (especially when it ...
Thu, Feb 27 2020, 6:30 PM
10yr yields were as low as 1.24% and ended the day at 1.27% after a decent amount of volatility. MBS gained almost a quarter point, but mortgage lend...
Thu, Feb 27 2020, 9:09 AM
Good morning. 10yr yields are in the 1.2's. All-time lows.
We follow MBS and the 10yr Treasury yield (and other rates, when relevant) here. The f...
Wed, Feb 26 2020, 10:03 AM
2012 was almost all about the European systemic crisis, although doubts remained about the US economic lift-off as well. All of the above played out ...
Tue, Feb 25 2020, 12:22 PM
For the purposes of following along with the underlying forces affecting mortgage rates, Freddie Mac MBS essentially never mattered. Fannie had alway...
Tue, Feb 25 2020, 9:43 AM
1.67, 1.50, 1.43, and 1.32% in 10yr Treasury yields... These are the only 4 key levels you need right now. Why are we talking about 10yr yields if t...
Mon, Feb 24 2020, 8:24 PM
Yields plummeted overnight and again this morning, giving chase to a massive global stock market sell-off due to rapidly rising coronavirus fears. MB...
Mon, Feb 24 2020, 10:58 AM
Coronavirus (or nCov for short) made more disconcerting headlines over the weekend and has generally proven itself to be far more capable in that rega...
Fri, Feb 21 2020, 9:47 AM
The bond market specializes in making bets about future economic realities even as the stock market reflects shorter-term performance of the biggest c...
Thu, Feb 20 2020, 4:35 PM
At the start of the overnight session (yesterday night), 10yr yields were up around 1.58%. By 1030am ET, they'd already fallen to 1.525%. Up until t...
Thu, Feb 20 2020, 10:23 AM
In case you're just joining us, there's a consolidation going on in the bond market. That means yields are trading in a progressively narrower range ...
Wed, Feb 19 2020, 9:26 AM
Thinking about the bond market in terms of rates and yields affords certain analytical luxuries. One is the ability to think in "upside down" terms w...
Tue, Feb 18 2020, 9:13 AM
The ability of the bond market to defy the cues seen elsewhere in the financial market has been relatively impressive over the past few weeks. It cou...
Fri, Feb 14 2020, 5:27 PM
Until today, even though bonds were already in a sideways pattern, we would have to have given the nod to the uptrend in rates vs the downtrend (2 com...
Fri, Feb 14 2020, 10:32 AM
I'll admit, there are times where I point out some chart-based evidence of uncertainty in the bond market and I feel like we're just delaying an inevi...
Thu, Feb 13 2020, 10:15 AM
Fancy chart overlays and technical studies are frustrating in the sense that they give us another angle to understand and discuss market movement, but...
Wed, Feb 12 2020, 4:20 PM
A few notes on the bond market's recent plans:
First few days of 2020: Come into the new year ready for that break above 2.0% that everyone was ex...
Wed, Feb 12 2020, 9:17 AM
2 weeks ago, as rates plummeted toward the lowest levels in more than 3 years, I began to point out a very obvious caveat to the gains. Because coron...
Tue, Feb 11 2020, 5:19 PM
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session as Chinese equities markets continued to bounce toward higher levels. This follows a head-fake toward lowe...
Tue, Feb 11 2020, 10:10 AM
Amid a dearth of important economic data between now and Friday, the bond market doesn't have much to do when it comes to pricing in bigger-picture ec...
Mon, Feb 10 2020, 9:36 AM
If the US/Iran flare up provided an opening act to the unexpected drama of 2020, coronavirus has been the headliner. Before these two events took the...
Fri, Feb 7 2020, 5:23 PM
Today's big to-do was a paradoxical bond market rally in response to a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. This wasn't just a case of a compelli...
Fri, Feb 7 2020, 10:18 AM
Here's one of those NFP mornings where it would have been very hard to predict what we're seeing in bonds based on what we've seen in the NFP numbers....
Thu, Feb 6 2020, 4:40 PM
The bond market took a break from the past 3 days of weakness today. There weren't any significant economic reports or news events (not as far as the...
Thu, Feb 6 2020, 9:23 AM
One of the most stunning and profound features of the past week of trading days has been the intensely higher volumes-especially in the overnight trad...
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