Wed, Dec 18 2019, 5:00 PM
Frustrating day for market watchers today as bonds suffered moderate losses despite a complete absence of any compelling market movers. These sorts o...
Wed, Dec 18 2019, 9:18 AM
With trading activity rapidly winding down and with the end of the year rapidly approaching, rather than send you a forced rehash of the same old comm...
Tue, Dec 17 2019, 9:35 AM
Based on volumes, liquidity, and most importantly, the calendar itself, there's a compelling case to be made for closing the book on 2019 as a trading...
Mon, Dec 16 2019, 5:40 PM
Friday was a somewhat glorious day for bond markets, but perhaps only because Thursday was so terrible. Both of those sessions were completely driven...
Mon, Dec 16 2019, 9:14 AM
Have you ever worried about the negative repercussions of some anticipated event in your life only to find out they weren't so bad? For the bond mark...
Fri, Dec 13 2019, 5:10 PM
Bonds were leading off in a slightly friendly direction during the overnight session, largely because we hadn't really heard from China with respect t...
Fri, Dec 13 2019, 11:05 AM
The litany of updates/alerts listed below effectively serves to frame the launch sequence for today's trading. If you don't care to wade through the ...
Thu, Dec 12 2019, 9:15 AM
Yesterday brought a nice little rally in response to a surprisingly rate-friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell. The counterpoint to that co...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 4:55 PM
We moved from NFP not mattering (and then causing a surprisingly big intraday stir) to the Fed undergoing quite a similar routine. Granted, in the bi...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September October indicates that the labor market remains strong and that econo...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 8:32 AM
Last week, I stunned the world by claiming that NFP (the nonfarm payrolls component of the big jobs report) "didn't matter." OK, maybe not the whole ...
Tue, Dec 10 2019, 5:15 PM
Last week saw an apparently important jobs report ATTEMPT to have a lasting impact on financial markets only for the move to be completely erased by t...
Tue, Dec 10 2019, 8:33 AM
In the grand scheme of things, today will likely be another placeholder of a day unless some unexpected (and fairly significant) trade war update happ...
Mon, Dec 9 2019, 9:07 AM
It's been almost exactly 3 months since the quick rate spike in early September. That, of course, followed an impressive run to the lowest rates in m...
Fri, Dec 6 2019, 3:30 PM
This morning's commentary was titled "NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)." Apparently NFP didn't like being called out because it did...
Fri, Dec 6 2019, 8:31 AM
First Friday of the month, and thus time for the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Also known simply as "the jobs report," no other piece of economic data...
Thu, Dec 5 2019, 5:41 PM
After the little bout of whipsaw volatility of the past 3 trading sessions, it will be a tall order for even the mighty NFP to move markets much tom...
Thu, Dec 5 2019, 9:48 AM
Bonds took Trump at his word in the wee hours of Tuesday morning with respect to waiting until Nov 2020 (or later) to finalize a trade deal with China...
Wed, Dec 4 2019, 4:28 PM
Bonds sold off clearly and somewhat abruptly following a Bloomberg article on the trade negotiations being in better shape than markets might assume b...
Wed, Dec 4 2019, 8:28 AM
Trade headlines rocked markets yesterday, making for the biggest single-day bond rally since early August--even after the gains moderated in the after...
Tue, Dec 3 2019, 5:36 PM
One short day after sending somewhat alarming signals about a move back up toward the top of the recent range, the bond market bounced back with a ven...
Tue, Dec 3 2019, 9:03 AM
Yesterday saw bonds jump up to the highest yields in more than 2 weeks. Culprits were diverse, including stronger overseas econ data and new trading ...
Mon, Dec 2 2019, 4:11 PM
As the bond market shook off the holiday weekend lethargy and metaphorically (and literally) returned to the office, it was met with an immediate bar...
Mon, Dec 2 2019, 10:10 AM
Welcome to the last few trading weeks of 2019--3 or them to be precise. After that, the Christmas and New Year holidays will mean we can't trust the ...
Fri, Nov 29 2019, 9:48 AM
Due to the holiday-shortened work week, today's economic calendar is empty and Wednesday's was about as clogged as it ever gets, with the following re...
Tue, Nov 26 2019, 5:24 PM
For those of you who are MBS Live members, yes, the recap title is the same as the MBS Huddle. Sorry for the lack of creativity, but this is an unins...
Tue, Nov 26 2019, 9:10 AM
Bonds have been doing fairly well for the past 2.5 weeks as yields have backed down from the 3-month highs seen at the beginning of the month. Over t...
Mon, Nov 25 2019, 4:28 PM
Attempting to competently perform bond market analysis on Thanksgiving week is a dangerous game. It will either drive a person insane(r), or simply l...
Mon, Nov 25 2019, 9:11 AM
I've been staring at this blank space on my monitor, where I normally put the words for the opening post of the day/week, for about 40 minutes, trying...
Fri, Nov 22 2019, 5:53 PM
'Twasn't the night before Christmas today, but 'twas the week before Thanksgiving. The "stirring creature" quotient is in the same ballpark. And for...
Fri, Nov 22 2019, 10:39 AM
I'm sorry if the following is starting to sound like a broken record, but it's all we really have at the moment. The bond market encounters these sor...
Thu, Nov 21 2019, 4:40 PM
Today brought one of the week's only potentially important economic reports in the form of the Philly Fed Index, but it fell on deaf ears. Notably, t...
Thu, Nov 21 2019, 10:22 AM
Much of 2019 has been "interesting" from an analytical standpoint. Things were happening. Markets were reacting. Movement was big and directional. ...
Wed, Nov 20 2019, 5:10 PM
There were 2 sorts of trade headlines in play today, but before we get to those, I wrote something today that bears repeating.
"The trade deal, in...
Wed, Nov 20 2019, 9:35 AM
Bonds are on a roll at the moment with 5 of the last 6 trading days resulting in lower yields. Rather than stand as some evidence of new strength in ...
Tue, Nov 19 2019, 5:13 PM
There's something special (and especially frustrating) about certain summertime Mondays. This is true not only because you might have been doing some...
Tue, Nov 19 2019, 9:40 AM
Daily and overnight trading volumes have been declining, and intraday trading ranges have been getting more narrow. The starting point for that trend...
Mon, Nov 18 2019, 4:51 PM
As 2019 winds down, investors have never been so broadly certain about the overall market thesis. Unfortunately, that thesis calls for unavoidable un...
Mon, Nov 18 2019, 10:38 AM
Last week provided a much-needed recovery that counteracted some of the fast-paced selling seen in the first week of November. Despite the friendly d...
Fri, Nov 15 2019, 7:06 PM
Yields broke up and out of their prevailing range last week and took the present week to focus on reentry. While those efforts went a long way toward...
Fri, Nov 15 2019, 8:31 AM
It's Friday and that means it's time to be on the lookout for unexpected trade-related headlines, especially in the afternoon. Those sorts of newswir...
Thu, Nov 14 2019, 4:58 PM
By the end of last week, although there was potentially a sliver of hope afforded by Friday's highs being slightly lower than Thursday's, it looked li...
Thu, Nov 14 2019, 9:32 AM
Bonds gave us quite a scare last week as key technical ceilings gave way. High volume and concrete fundamental justification added validity to the mo...
Wed, Nov 13 2019, 10:03 AM
The most defining moment of the big 2019 bond rally was undoubtedly the August 1st tariff announcement and the resulting massive reaction in both yiel...
Tue, Nov 12 2019, 5:01 PM
There are all kinds of bonds out there. We follow the 10yr Treasury even though this is a mortgage-specific site for reasons outlined here. Beyond T...
Tue, Nov 12 2019, 9:44 AM
1.90% has been the most important, most dangerous ceiling for 10yr Treasury yields ever since a nasty selling spree stalled out there exactly 2 months...
Fri, Nov 8 2019, 9:12 AM
If you don't expect anything good to happen for the bond market for the next few months, I guarantee you won't be disappointed. If, however, you expe...
Thu, Nov 7 2019, 6:21 PM
It was a big, bad day for the bond market, although the size of the thing ended up getting pared down just a bit in the afternoon. Chalk that up to a...
Thu, Nov 7 2019, 10:37 AM
Yesterday brought a brief reprieve for bonds after the first 2 days of the week threatened to confirm a big picture shift toward higher rates (or at l...
Wed, Nov 6 2019, 5:31 PM
Today's 10yr Treasury auction brought strong demand . Across the board, the auction stats were much stronger than expected. The only real problem w...
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