Fri, Feb 28 2020, 11:40 AM
This post will focus mostly on the charts, which many of you have requested, as I need to turn my focus toward a few other things (especially when it ...
Thu, Feb 27 2020, 6:30 PM
10yr yields were as low as 1.24% and ended the day at 1.27% after a decent amount of volatility. MBS gained almost a quarter point, but mortgage lend...
Thu, Feb 27 2020, 9:09 AM
Good morning. 10yr yields are in the 1.2's. All-time lows.
We follow MBS and the 10yr Treasury yield (and other rates, when relevant) here. The f...
Wed, Feb 26 2020, 10:03 AM
2012 was almost all about the European systemic crisis, although doubts remained about the US economic lift-off as well. All of the above played out ...
Tue, Feb 25 2020, 12:22 PM
For the purposes of following along with the underlying forces affecting mortgage rates, Freddie Mac MBS essentially never mattered. Fannie had alway...
Tue, Feb 25 2020, 9:43 AM
1.67, 1.50, 1.43, and 1.32% in 10yr Treasury yields... These are the only 4 key levels you need right now. Why are we talking about 10yr yields if t...
Mon, Feb 24 2020, 8:24 PM
Yields plummeted overnight and again this morning, giving chase to a massive global stock market sell-off due to rapidly rising coronavirus fears. MB...
Mon, Feb 24 2020, 10:58 AM
Coronavirus (or nCov for short) made more disconcerting headlines over the weekend and has generally proven itself to be far more capable in that rega...
Fri, Feb 21 2020, 9:47 AM
The bond market specializes in making bets about future economic realities even as the stock market reflects shorter-term performance of the biggest c...
Thu, Feb 20 2020, 4:35 PM
At the start of the overnight session (yesterday night), 10yr yields were up around 1.58%. By 1030am ET, they'd already fallen to 1.525%. Up until t...
Thu, Feb 20 2020, 10:23 AM
In case you're just joining us, there's a consolidation going on in the bond market. That means yields are trading in a progressively narrower range ...
Wed, Feb 19 2020, 9:26 AM
Thinking about the bond market in terms of rates and yields affords certain analytical luxuries. One is the ability to think in "upside down" terms w...
Tue, Feb 18 2020, 9:13 AM
The ability of the bond market to defy the cues seen elsewhere in the financial market has been relatively impressive over the past few weeks. It cou...
Fri, Feb 14 2020, 5:27 PM
Until today, even though bonds were already in a sideways pattern, we would have to have given the nod to the uptrend in rates vs the downtrend (2 com...
Fri, Feb 14 2020, 10:32 AM
I'll admit, there are times where I point out some chart-based evidence of uncertainty in the bond market and I feel like we're just delaying an inevi...
Thu, Feb 13 2020, 10:15 AM
Fancy chart overlays and technical studies are frustrating in the sense that they give us another angle to understand and discuss market movement, but...
Wed, Feb 12 2020, 4:20 PM
A few notes on the bond market's recent plans:
First few days of 2020: Come into the new year ready for that break above 2.0% that everyone was ex...
Wed, Feb 12 2020, 9:17 AM
2 weeks ago, as rates plummeted toward the lowest levels in more than 3 years, I began to point out a very obvious caveat to the gains. Because coron...
Tue, Feb 11 2020, 5:19 PM
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session as Chinese equities markets continued to bounce toward higher levels. This follows a head-fake toward lowe...
Tue, Feb 11 2020, 10:10 AM
Amid a dearth of important economic data between now and Friday, the bond market doesn't have much to do when it comes to pricing in bigger-picture ec...
Mon, Feb 10 2020, 9:36 AM
If the US/Iran flare up provided an opening act to the unexpected drama of 2020, coronavirus has been the headliner. Before these two events took the...
Fri, Feb 7 2020, 5:23 PM
Today's big to-do was a paradoxical bond market rally in response to a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. This wasn't just a case of a compelli...
Fri, Feb 7 2020, 10:18 AM
Here's one of those NFP mornings where it would have been very hard to predict what we're seeing in bonds based on what we've seen in the NFP numbers....
Thu, Feb 6 2020, 4:40 PM
The bond market took a break from the past 3 days of weakness today. There weren't any significant economic reports or news events (not as far as the...
Thu, Feb 6 2020, 9:23 AM
One of the most stunning and profound features of the past week of trading days has been the intensely higher volumes-especially in the overnight trad...
Wed, Feb 5 2020, 6:14 PM
So far, the correction to the coronavirus bond market rally is only a few days old, but it became much more problematic today. Yesterday was arguably...
Wed, Feb 5 2020, 9:43 AM
Heading into this morning, it looked as if bonds would have a fighting chance, at the very least. The fight in question is against the big bounce tow...
Tue, Feb 4 2020, 6:27 PM
We knew we'd have to deal with it at some point, and now we have to wonder if it's already here: the coronavirus bounce.
Why did we know it was c...
Tue, Feb 4 2020, 9:32 AM
In many respects, the market response to the coronavirus outbreak has been able to take cues from past experience with SARS in 2002/2003. In many oth...
Mon, Feb 3 2020, 6:28 PM
Today's key scheduled event was the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI--one of the several most important reports after the perennial heavy hitter, ...
Mon, Feb 3 2020, 9:18 AM
The total count of confirmed coronavirus cases will continue to grow for quite some time (several months, perhaps). Markets and epidemiologists alike...
Fri, Jan 31 2020, 6:07 PM
When the World Health Organization declared coronavirus an international health emergency yesterday, there were two schools of thought. At first glan...
Fri, Jan 31 2020, 9:12 AM
Yesterday offered up a fairly intense trading session for the bond market. Yields moved to the lowest levels in months with 10yr Treasuries hitting 1...
Thu, Jan 30 2020, 10:35 AM
With the Fed out of the way, coronavirus cases still growing rapidly, and no major correction seen in the bond market, the question on everyone's mind...
Wed, Jan 29 2020, 5:08 PM
It's fashionable to criticize Fed Chair Powell for negatively affecting the bond market during his customary press conference on Fed Announcement da...
Wed, Jan 29 2020, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in OctoberDecember indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic a...
Wed, Jan 29 2020, 9:39 AM
Imagine a world where the Federal Reserve was here to entertain and comment on sports betting rather than offer dry, carefully worded updates on monet...
Wed, Jan 29 2020, 9:25 AM
Bonds are holding below what had been a yield floor since mid-October. Yesterday raised some concern about the recently stronger trend reversing, but...
Tue, Jan 28 2020, 5:18 PM
Stocks moved higher today and bond yields did the same. Given that coronavirus has been the key consideration for both sides of the market, the movem...
Tue, Jan 28 2020, 8:44 AM
Bonds finally broke out of one of their prevailing ranges yesterday as Wuhan virus fears reached a new level. Some may roll their eyes at this sort o...
Mon, Jan 27 2020, 9:45 AM
Last week was really the first truly interesting week of 2020 (and arguably of the past several months) as far as the prevailing range in the bond mar...
Fri, Jan 24 2020, 6:06 PM
We had to wait all the way until January 24th of 2020, but bonds finally offered their first real shred of willingness to challenge the established ra...
Fri, Jan 24 2020, 10:49 AM
As the week comes to a close, we find bonds continuing to trickle toward the lower end of the range that has prevailed for nearly 3 months. In terms ...
Thu, Jan 23 2020, 9:13 AM
The bond market--widely expected to have been launching yields up and over 2% in 2020--is instead in the process of testing it's best levels since ear...
Wed, Jan 22 2020, 9:51 AM
You know things are bad when I resort to invoking Kierkegaard in bond market commentary, but that's what it's come to. Our quest to observe something...
Tue, Jan 21 2020, 10:22 AM
In addition to being a 4-day trading week due to yesterday's holiday, there's also a general lack of big-ticket economic data on tap. In fact, there ...
Fri, Jan 17 2020, 7:16 PM
We've seen a whole lot more movement in the bond market for a whole lot less motivation than we had this week. Back to back econ data shockers (Phill...
Fri, Jan 17 2020, 10:47 AM
Sometimes the market moves in clear response to a headline event or the scheduled release of an economic report. We have clear examples of this recen...
Thu, Jan 16 2020, 9:07 AM
Bonds continue to be well-contained by the prevailing consolidation range--a series of higher lows and static highs that's been in place in its curren...
Wed, Jan 15 2020, 3:42 PM
Today marked a rare mid-week "total dud" in terms of bond market momentum developments. This was made all the more striking by the fact that bonds ce...
MBS Market Alerts
