Tue, Dec 5 2017, 9:20 AM
A sideways range with higher lows and lower highs...
The risk of p eriodic volatility regardless of economic data's suggestion...
A certain p...
Mon, Dec 4 2017, 5:01 PM
Friday evening brought the passage of the Senate's version of the tax bill. It now moves to a joint session for "reconciliation" (Senate+House trying...
Mon, Dec 4 2017, 9:48 AM
As expected, the Senate passed its version of the tax bill on Friday evening (the passage being the expected part, not the timing). Also as expected,...
Fri, Dec 1 2017, 7:49 PM
After a day of diffuse inspiration from several competing market movers yesterday, we ended up with far more focus today. That wasn't readily apparen...
Fri, Dec 1 2017, 9:20 AM
The extent to which the tax bill is "inevitable" remains to be seen, but at the moment, financial markets are still treating it as "highly likely"--ju...
Thu, Nov 30 2017, 4:55 PM
As discussed in detail in the daily video on MBS Live, today's bond market weakness was multifaceted , to say the least. But if we want to make the ...
Thu, Nov 30 2017, 9:40 AM
Bonds are beginning the day in roughly unchanged territory, but that's not a good thing as far as the bigger picture is concerned. "Unchanged territo...
Wed, Nov 29 2017, 6:39 PM
Bond markets began domestic hours only slightly weaker, but that didn't last. Milliseconds into the 8am hour, we saw stronger inflation data in Europ...
Wed, Nov 29 2017, 9:11 AM
Right at the start of trading today, bonds took a hit from Fed comments. Although she's soon to be replaced, Janet Yellen's thoughts on the economy...
Tue, Nov 28 2017, 5:04 PM
Stocks broke out in a big way today--a fact that may make the relatively 'unchanged' bond market performance more palatable. In bonds' defense, they ...
Tue, Nov 28 2017, 9:28 AM
Not much will be able to change about the recent analysis until markets actually make a move. In a nutshell, the recent analysis holds that we've bee...
Mon, Nov 27 2017, 5:16 PM
The bond market theme heading into the Thanksgiving break was "waiting for a breakout."
The bond market theme heading out of Thanksgiving break ...
Mon, Nov 27 2017, 9:41 AM
Over the past two months, we've seen higher lows and lower highs in 10yr yields and mortgage rates. On a chart, this looks like 2 sides of a "triangl...
Fri, Nov 24 2017, 7:38 AM
Today is boring . It was destined to be boring (probably) before it even occurred, and even if it gives the appearance of being exciting at some poi...
Wed, Nov 22 2017, 4:38 PM
We've discussed the tenor of Thanksgiving week in bond markets being more to do with serendipity than traditional "cause and effect" relationships. T...
Wed, Nov 22 2017, 8:34 AM
To be sure, market participants have one foot out the door today--either mentally, physically, or both. This has already been made quite clear in the...
Tue, Nov 21 2017, 5:18 PM
So far this week, both of the trading days have done everything in their powe r to be as meaningless as possible. There have been no major attempts ...
Tue, Nov 21 2017, 9:12 AM
It's no great mystery that momentum in bond markets (at least in 10yr Treasury yields and MBS) is sharply sideways at the moment--not only in terms ...
Mon, Nov 20 2017, 4:59 PM
Looked at under a microscope, there was a fair amount of intraday volatility this morning. Treasury yields fell overnight, reaching the best levels...
Mon, Nov 20 2017, 9:42 AM
Compared to stocks, bond markets tend to be more affected by changes in market participation surrounding holidays and other sources of illiquidity. L...
Fri, Nov 17 2017, 5:28 PM
With today's modest gains, bond markets did exactly what they need to in order to keep the medium term momentum technicals perfectly flat (that flat...
Fri, Nov 17 2017, 9:35 AM
Take a few steps back from the shorter-term charts (we tend to watch at 2-day chart for most lock/float purposes on MBS Live ) and a theme begins to...
Thu, Nov 16 2017, 5:17 PM
Bond markets are officially looking for inspiration, motivation, or even just something to pass the time. Today's events didn't seem to do the trick ...
Thu, Nov 16 2017, 8:36 AM
While today will play host to another set of economic reports as well as the House vote on its version of the tax bill, bond markets may continue to l...
Wed, Nov 15 2017, 4:38 PM
As noted in today's MBS Huddle, an absence of any selling pressure in bond markets was a positive result in itself. Selling pressure would have bee...
Wed, Nov 15 2017, 8:24 AM
Bonds begin the day much-improved from yesterday's levels, effectively showing their hand ahead of today's important economic data. In other words, t...
Tue, Nov 14 2017, 4:47 PM
The past two sessions have been fairly nondescript in the bigger picture. Both have traversed almost exactly the same trading range. Both have ex...
Tue, Nov 14 2017, 9:45 AM
Bond markets are starting the day in fairly similar territory to Friday's latest levels for the 2nd day in a row. As I said yesterday, this is a prec...
Mon, Nov 13 2017, 5:53 PM
For the first time since 2006, market participants didn't get a weekday off for Veterans Day. For all intents and purposes, traders ended up taking t...
Mon, Nov 13 2017, 9:31 AM
Sorry Kansans. Another false alarm where your home state was in the headline but only as a Wizard of Oz reference. For bond markets, it's an apt all...
Fri, Nov 10 2017, 7:41 PM
Bond markets took a beating today and analysts are still trying to build a case against a slew of potential assailants. Here's what we know.
Euro...
Fri, Nov 10 2017, 9:41 AM
After 2 weeks of solid gains, bonds have taken the past 3 days (which includes today's overnight trading) to push back in the other direction. At l...
Thu, Nov 9 2017, 4:49 PM
Bond markets began the day roughly unchanged after initially improving in the overnight session. Domestic hours saw 10yr yields make 2 attempts to br...
Thu, Nov 9 2017, 9:28 AM
Bonds are beginning the day in weaker territory for one of several reasons (MBS Live members can read about them in greater detail HERE). The weaknes...
Wed, Nov 8 2017, 4:17 PM
After 5 days of gains for longer-term bonds (we'll lump 10yr Treasuries and the MBS coupons that matter to rate sheets into that category), today fi...
Wed, Nov 8 2017, 8:53 AM
If you've been putting something off that you might be able to chip away at with an extra 5 minutes each morning this week, but simply can't bear the ...
Tue, Nov 7 2017, 5:42 PM
We COULD complain about the absence of volume and volatility in bond markets at the moment. Or we could observe that the calm, relatively sideways ...
Tue, Nov 7 2017, 9:06 AM
Bond traders are like my 10yr old. If you give them plenty of information to consider and if you lay out the right set of challenges, they're much mo...
Mon, Nov 6 2017, 5:05 PM
Both Treasuries and MBS inched their way to the best levels seen in more than 2 weeks today, and it couldn't be much less exciting. Today's trading...
Mon, Nov 6 2017, 9:12 AM
There isn't much by way of relevant data on the economic calendar this week. In fact, there are no reports that would ever be considered "top-tier" ...
Fri, Nov 3 2017, 6:30 PM
This is more of a recap of the week as a whole because if I tried to just cover today, the screen would look too blank! NFP came out weaker than expe...
Fri, Nov 3 2017, 8:29 AM
On average, NFP (the "nonfarm payrolls" component of the Employment Situation report which also refers to the broader report itself) is the biggest ...
Thu, Nov 2 2017, 6:46 PM
Traders' eyes were far more burdened than their fingers (which push the "trade" button) today. There was a ton of info to take in regarding the GOP's...
Thu, Nov 2 2017, 9:13 AM
There are only so many ways to say the same thing, but I'll at least update the chart to show that bonds remain inside the same boundaries we've been ...
Wed, Nov 1 2017, 2:09 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and...
Wed, Nov 1 2017, 9:04 AM
Friday and Monday were (relatively) great days for bond markets. For our purposes, at least, they signified an important push back against the more...
Tue, Oct 31 2017, 4:48 PM
Today was the last day of trading for the month of October. That means money managers had to get a certain amount of bond buying accomplished in orde...
Tue, Oct 31 2017, 9:12 AM
While the broader uptrend in rates remains technically intact, the first trading day of the week pushed back in a friendly direction. In fact, it was...
Mon, Oct 30 2017, 4:16 PM
Bonds began the day in stronger territory, generally riding a wave of momentum from late last week on fresh speculation that Trump would nominate Jero...
Mon, Oct 30 2017, 9:14 AM
Wednesday brings this year's 2nd to last installment of Fed policy announcements, and those announcements have certainly been ramping up in terms of s...
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