Thu, Dec 21 2017, 9:29 AM
As we discussed yesterday, the flattening of the yield curve has been a dominant trading theme in 2017. It's also been a "crowded trade" for bond mar...
Wed, Dec 20 2017, 4:45 PM
Today was much calmer than yesterday in terms of intraday volatility. The overall trading ranges in 10yr yields and MBS were more than twice as nar...
Wed, Dec 20 2017, 9:43 AM
Things have gone from "very sideways" to "very bad" for bond markets in less than 48 hours. As of Monday afternoon, this could have been any other ...
Tue, Dec 19 2017, 5:25 PM
There were no market movers in play today. I'm not trying to be funny or clever. There were no market movers- -at least not in the traditional sens...
Tue, Dec 19 2017, 9:28 AM
It could just be random December trading that ultimately proves to be inconsequential, but every visit to the top of our recent ranges has to be take...
Mon, Dec 18 2017, 5:27 PM
Last Friday I said that bond traders had "had enough" when it came to reacting to every little tax bill headline. That theme held true today, but now...
Mon, Dec 18 2017, 9:48 AM
While it's not on some economic calendars yet, this Friday will be an "early close" for bond markets, meaning no trading after 2pm ET. Even then, v...
Fri, Dec 15 2017, 7:32 PM
Bond traders are increasingly saying "enough already! " when it comes to reacting to every little push and pull in the tug-o-war over the tax bill. ...
Fri, Dec 15 2017, 9:15 AM
From time to time, a discussion will start up among MBS Live community members regarding certain habits for certain months of the year. Some popular ...
Thu, Dec 14 2017, 4:55 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory partly due to a correction from yesterday's strong run in the afternoon, and partly due to stronger economic...
Thu, Dec 14 2017, 8:29 AM
Volume swelled during the first 3 days of the week, culminating in yesterday's CPI/Fed combo and a fairly large move lower in rates. That's what we c...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 5:59 PM
Heading into the day, we knew we were looking at 2 key market movers in the form of the CPI data and the afternoon's Fed festivities (which include ...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen ...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 8:26 AM
Today brings 2 key developments in the form of the 8:30am CPI data and the afternoon's Fed announcement. CPI--the Consumer Price Index--was one of ...
Tue, Dec 12 2017, 4:59 PM
It was a pretty straightforward day for bond markets, which CONTINUE to operate in an exceptionally narrow, sideways range. That's been the case ...
Tue, Dec 12 2017, 8:37 AM
I wish I could tell you that today was destined to be an exciting opportunity for bonds to embark on some sort of epic journey (or at least to defin...
Mon, Dec 11 2017, 5:33 PM
Bond markets had an uneventful overnight session until just before the start of domestic trading hours. Most market participants were willing to chal...
Mon, Dec 11 2017, 9:16 AM
There are 3 to 4 big players this week when it comes to potential market movers . In no particular order, these include Treasury auctions, central b...
Fri, Dec 8 2017, 5:40 PM
When it comes to bond markets reacting to economic data these days, don't expect too much and you won't be disappointed. Heading into today's NFP r...
Fri, Dec 8 2017, 8:32 AM
Bond markets haven't been at all keen to react in a major way to economic data. Tax reform and other fiscal issues have been center stage for several...
Thu, Dec 7 2017, 4:52 PM
Bond markets began the day roughly unchanged compared to yesterday afternoon's weaker closing levels. From there, Treasuries rallied in concert wit...
Thu, Dec 7 2017, 9:23 AM
Both yesterday and the day before, bonds closed in stronger territory than the previous day's close. That's the first time that's happened since earl...
Wed, Dec 6 2017, 5:26 PM
For the purposes of this recap, "winning streak" would be defined as a day where Fannie 3.5 MBS or 10yr Treasury yields closed at better levels than t...
Wed, Dec 6 2017, 9:43 AM
Consolidating, biding time, coiling, storing energy, etc... Over the years on MBS Live and elsewhere, you may have come into several iterations of th...
Tue, Dec 5 2017, 5:35 PM
Much like yesterday's session, today saw bond markets begin the day in slightly weaker territory only to rally into slightly stronger territory by...
Tue, Dec 5 2017, 9:20 AM
A sideways range with higher lows and lower highs...
The risk of p eriodic volatility regardless of economic data's suggestion...
A certain p...
Mon, Dec 4 2017, 5:01 PM
Friday evening brought the passage of the Senate's version of the tax bill. It now moves to a joint session for "reconciliation" (Senate+House trying...
Mon, Dec 4 2017, 9:48 AM
As expected, the Senate passed its version of the tax bill on Friday evening (the passage being the expected part, not the timing). Also as expected,...
Fri, Dec 1 2017, 7:49 PM
After a day of diffuse inspiration from several competing market movers yesterday, we ended up with far more focus today. That wasn't readily apparen...
Fri, Dec 1 2017, 9:20 AM
The extent to which the tax bill is "inevitable" remains to be seen, but at the moment, financial markets are still treating it as "highly likely"--ju...
Thu, Nov 30 2017, 4:55 PM
As discussed in detail in the daily video on MBS Live, today's bond market weakness was multifaceted , to say the least. But if we want to make the ...
Thu, Nov 30 2017, 9:40 AM
Bonds are beginning the day in roughly unchanged territory, but that's not a good thing as far as the bigger picture is concerned. "Unchanged territo...
Wed, Nov 29 2017, 6:39 PM
Bond markets began domestic hours only slightly weaker, but that didn't last. Milliseconds into the 8am hour, we saw stronger inflation data in Europ...
Wed, Nov 29 2017, 9:11 AM
Right at the start of trading today, bonds took a hit from Fed comments. Although she's soon to be replaced, Janet Yellen's thoughts on the economy...
Tue, Nov 28 2017, 5:04 PM
Stocks broke out in a big way today--a fact that may make the relatively 'unchanged' bond market performance more palatable. In bonds' defense, they ...
Tue, Nov 28 2017, 9:28 AM
Not much will be able to change about the recent analysis until markets actually make a move. In a nutshell, the recent analysis holds that we've bee...
Mon, Nov 27 2017, 5:16 PM
The bond market theme heading into the Thanksgiving break was "waiting for a breakout."
The bond market theme heading out of Thanksgiving break ...
Mon, Nov 27 2017, 9:41 AM
Over the past two months, we've seen higher lows and lower highs in 10yr yields and mortgage rates. On a chart, this looks like 2 sides of a "triangl...
Fri, Nov 24 2017, 7:38 AM
Today is boring . It was destined to be boring (probably) before it even occurred, and even if it gives the appearance of being exciting at some poi...
Wed, Nov 22 2017, 4:38 PM
We've discussed the tenor of Thanksgiving week in bond markets being more to do with serendipity than traditional "cause and effect" relationships. T...
Wed, Nov 22 2017, 8:34 AM
To be sure, market participants have one foot out the door today--either mentally, physically, or both. This has already been made quite clear in the...
Tue, Nov 21 2017, 5:18 PM
So far this week, both of the trading days have done everything in their powe r to be as meaningless as possible. There have been no major attempts ...
Tue, Nov 21 2017, 9:12 AM
It's no great mystery that momentum in bond markets (at least in 10yr Treasury yields and MBS) is sharply sideways at the moment--not only in terms ...
Mon, Nov 20 2017, 4:59 PM
Looked at under a microscope, there was a fair amount of intraday volatility this morning. Treasury yields fell overnight, reaching the best levels...
Mon, Nov 20 2017, 9:42 AM
Compared to stocks, bond markets tend to be more affected by changes in market participation surrounding holidays and other sources of illiquidity. L...
Fri, Nov 17 2017, 5:28 PM
With today's modest gains, bond markets did exactly what they need to in order to keep the medium term momentum technicals perfectly flat (that flat...
Fri, Nov 17 2017, 9:35 AM
Take a few steps back from the shorter-term charts (we tend to watch at 2-day chart for most lock/float purposes on MBS Live ) and a theme begins to...
Thu, Nov 16 2017, 5:17 PM
Bond markets are officially looking for inspiration, motivation, or even just something to pass the time. Today's events didn't seem to do the trick ...
Thu, Nov 16 2017, 8:36 AM
While today will play host to another set of economic reports as well as the House vote on its version of the tax bill, bond markets may continue to l...
Wed, Nov 15 2017, 4:38 PM
As noted in today's MBS Huddle, an absence of any selling pressure in bond markets was a positive result in itself. Selling pressure would have bee...
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