Tue, Aug 2 2016, 5:24 PM
Bond markets capped a rather unpleasant 2-day move today. While 10yr yields only rose 3.4bps by the close, the losses put us right back in the 1.52-1...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 8:59 AM
Back in 2015--almost exactly a year ago, actually--the order of the day was determining the timing of the Fed's first rate hike since the financial cr...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 7:01 PM
We were already defensive, to some extent, about the possibility that last Friday's gains were driven by month-end trading needs. Indeed, there was a...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 8:39 AM
With 10yr yields up only 2.2bps to begin the day and MBS down only 2 ticks, it's interesting to note that initial reaction to the overnight policy ann...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 4:46 PM
Heading into the close at much stronger levels this afternoon, it would be easy to overlook the fact that bond markets were weaker overnight (followin...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 9:06 AM
One tricky thing about technical analysis (things like moving averages and other mathematical formulas applied to charts in order to get them to cough...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 4:57 PM
In the bigger picture, today was all about confirming and consolidating yesterday's gains. Trading levels held inside narrow ranges for both MBS an...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 8:21 AM
First thing's first: "consolidation" refers to a pronounced narrowing of a trading range after an uptrend or downtrend. Consolidations can occur with...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 4:49 PM
Dovish vs Hawkish: This refers to how accommodative the Fed's policy stance might be. Have you ever seen a hawk stare down its prey? That's how a ...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Apri...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 9:03 AM
Smart stakeholders in financial markets tend to avoid assuming or asserting that particular trading levels WILL behave in a particular way. There are...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 6:26 PM
Last week saw the yields increasingly hold inside the "new narrow" range between 1.54 and 1.59. Frankly, I felt like it was a long shot for that ra...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond markets begin another week in the same sideways range, still waiting for the same events to suggest the next concerted effort to take yields hi...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 4:30 PM
Bond markets did nothing wrong today. There was a bit of red on trade screens (indicating modestly higher yields in Treasuries and lower MBS prices...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 9:05 AM
If bond-trading aliens scanned the universe for signs of life and happened upon planet earth this week, they probably wouldn't even send an imperial p...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 5:32 PM
Bond markets had yet another uneventful day with yet another close inside the same old range that's dominated the entire week (with one brief exceptio...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 8:49 AM
With slight weakness overnight, bonds begin the domestic trading session with their backs against the wall, yet again. The "wall" in this case could ...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 5:51 PM
Any time we watch a sideways range rates with fairly clear technical boundaries, it's only natural to hope that the upper boundary will hold up in the...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 9:25 AM
Bond yields hit all time lows. Then they bounced higher. Widespread discussion ensued on the next "key levels" to watch. The goal, of course, is ...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 4:30 PM
Over the past two days there has been a relative explosion of analyst interviews (from big firms like JP Morgan , etc.) calling for big, inevitable...
Tue, Jul 19 2016, 8:49 AM
The concept of "the gap" is one of the most basic when it comes to analyzing charts of financial market movement. Under the most common definition of...
Tue, Jul 19 2016, 5:15 PM
In the magical sharing circle that is global financial markets, the "talking stick" was passed to bonds, as it is every day. But rather than share a ...
Mon, Jul 18 2016, 9:33 AM
Have you noticed a few more email auto-responses starting late last week? Summer travel season is in full swing and this week is an especially good "...
Mon, Jul 18 2016, 6:18 PM
Friday afternoon was a complicated thing to think about when it comes to markets and their motivations for movement. Given the time of day that the T...
Fri, Jul 15 2016, 8:31 AM
Granted, economic data in the US is far from the only game in town at the moment. In fact, it's probably one of the least important games there is, ...
Fri, Jul 15 2016, 6:34 PM
Except for the very end of the trading session, today was all about domestic economic data and all about the logical bond market weakness that followe...
Thu, Jul 14 2016, 8:30 AM
Bonds are back on the ropes again to start the day as the Bank of England (BOE) surprised markets by holding rates steady. This was their way of fl...
Thu, Jul 14 2016, 5:20 PM
Bond markets weakened overnight as Yen/USD surged higher (meaning Yen is weakening versus the dollar). This has to do with the potential for new stim...
Wed, Jul 13 2016, 9:06 AM
Have you ever wondered why technical analysts and other seemingly savvy market commentators tend to reference moving averages that are nice, round nu...
Wed, Jul 13 2016, 6:04 PM
US bond markets were completely done moving by the time the domestic session began. Case in point, 10yr yields ended the day at 1.473, exactly the sa...
Tue, Jul 12 2016, 9:21 AM
Back in the good old days during the infancy of the financial crisis, much was made of Bernanke's study of Japan's massive, long term , secular defla...
Tue, Jul 12 2016, 6:42 PM
The very next day after Brexit headlines sunk 10yr yields to long-term lows in late June, we began talking about "1.53%" in 10yr Treasury yields. Thi...
Mon, Jul 11 2016, 9:04 AM
To whatever extent economic data matters, the week ahead will gradually crescendo by Friday, which boasts the two most important reports: CPI and Ret...
Mon, Jul 11 2016, 5:41 PM
If I didn't know any better, I'd say it looked like MBS were simply "tired of moving" in relative proportion to Treasuries as the latter undergo some ...
Fri, Jul 8 2016, 8:20 AM
Perhaps as long ago as April 2014, when the first major talk of the European Central Bank's impending QE plan began circulating, domestic economic dat...
Fri, Jul 8 2016, 5:36 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say "the impossible happened today," but at the very least, we could call it "the improbable." A lot was at stake headin...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 9:00 AM
After an epic run to all-time Treasury lows (and nearly all-time mortgage rate lows) bond markets are flashing warning signs about a bounce. This sor...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 4:51 PM
Bonds slightly weaker overnight; no major drama
AM employment data (ADP and Jobless Claims) prompted more selling
Stock prices and bond yields b...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 8:42 AM
Bond markets enter domestic session at new all-time low yields
Yet again, there are no stand-out, individual motivations
All about he big pictu...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 5:25 PM
Treasury yields hit new intraday all-time lows overnight
Traders were lined up to sell at the open (profit-taking)
Weakness continued after stro...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 9:36 AM
Global yields begin week at new all-time lows
Underlying reasons haven't changed
What ends this?
If you only look at the US as a represent...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 4:00 PM
10yr yields traded well into the 1.3's, surpassing previous low of 1.381
No specific motivation at home or abroad, though there are several support...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 9:58 AM
10yr yield hit 1.382 overnight
All-time low was 1.381 in July 2012
Welcome to the New Normal
We had a great discussion in the live chat on...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 3:50 PM
Strong overnight pop in Treasuries, ECB headlines cited
Record low 30yr bond yield and near-record low in 10yr yield
Bonds lost ground after Eur...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 9:09 AM
Bonds remain generally strong despite yesterday's losses
There continues to be a good line in the sand that can warn against a bigger shift
Furt...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 6:41 PM
Bonds bounced back as month-end buying hit its stride
Second wind came from Bank of England comments on likely stimulus
Yields bounced higher...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 9:32 AM
Woops! I gave away the formula for 99% of any market analysis over the past week, but I have ...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 4:45 PM
Bonds continued holding ultra-narrow post-Brexit range until 3pm
At that point, Treasuries spiked aggressively and MBS eventually followed
Initi...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond rallies don't last forever
2 ways for rates to move higher: temporary, nominal corrections, and full-scale reversals
Here's one easy way to...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 5:12 PM
Bond markets grudgingly gave up some gains, but only relative to previous close
Relative to yesterday's average trading levels, today was flat
N...
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