Thu, Nov 17 2016, 10:02 AM
This morning's commentary will be a bit heavy in terms of the focus on technical analysis, but as always, this isn't exactly old school, textbook tech...
Thu, Nov 17 2016, 5:46 PM
Google up the 5-timer club if you're not familiar. We have a new inductee today, although it's not exactly the same club as seen on Saturday Night ...
Wed, Nov 16 2016, 10:09 AM
We started to talk about "the gap" in yesterday's closing commentary and unless bond market momentum manages to stay far weaker than anyone expects,...
Wed, Nov 16 2016, 5:40 PM
Bond markets managed to scrape together a day-over-day improvement by a very small margin. 10yr yields closed 1.6bps lower and Fannie 3.5s gained a p...
Tue, Nov 15 2016, 10:03 AM
Big moves in bond markets always result in big conclusions from all manner of market participants. Whether it's Chief Strategist at some big bank, ...
Tue, Nov 15 2016, 7:22 PM
If you've ever had the misfortune of experiencing a sharp stick in your eye, then you have a great reference point for today's bond market movement. ...
Mon, Nov 14 2016, 9:27 AM
"Taper tantrum" refers to the market's reaction to the revelation that the Fed would begin reducing the pace of its asset purchases in mid-2013. For ...
Mon, Nov 14 2016, 7:53 PM
With Thursday marking a slightly less robust day of selling compared to Wednesday, it was all too tempting to hope that the bond market was just get...
Thu, Nov 10 2016, 10:30 AM
We talk about " momentum " a lot when it comes to bond market movement. I like reducing financial market concepts and reducing them to easy-to-unders...
Thu, Nov 10 2016, 6:19 PM
In the Day Ahead, we discussed the concept of ' momentum ' in bond markets. I likened the current momentum situation to an unexpected running of the ...
Wed, Nov 9 2016, 5:37 PM
These are the sorts of things I think about sometimes when I'm coming up with a title for the recap. If you have enough of a stake in bond market mov...
Wed, Nov 9 2016, 2:30 AM
This will be a brutally simple piece of analysis. If you'd like to see the same conclusions expressed in vastly more words, read almost anything I'...
Tue, Nov 8 2016, 9:22 AM
This week's absence of relevant economic data seems to be by design. Markets may have chosen to focus on the election even if there had been importan...
Tue, Nov 8 2016, 5:14 PM
Market participants are HUNGRY for information on election day! While that comes as no surprise (indeed, traders always want to know what's going o...
Mon, Nov 7 2016, 10:02 AM
In terms of scheduled economic data and events, this week is almost completely barren. In addition, Friday is Veteran's Day , and no matter what any...
Mon, Nov 7 2016, 5:28 PM
Today was perhaps the simplest trading session for bond markets in recent memory. There was one relevant piece of information and one meaningful mo...
Fri, Nov 4 2016, 9:52 AM
Europe.
Above all else, the evolution of the European recovery-- especially as it relates to the various fiscal and monetary policy responses in t...
Fri, Nov 4 2016, 5:00 PM
I've seen today's jobs report referred to as both stronger and weaker in several ways. At worst, it was "mixed," and generally erred on the stronge...
Thu, Nov 3 2016, 9:53 AM
There can be no doubt that bond markets are responding to recent political headlines. But there's even less of a doubt that stock markets are far mor...
Thu, Nov 3 2016, 4:57 PM
Thank the overnight trading session for an anticlimactic day. It set a healthy range of highs and lows that daytime trading never managed to break....
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 9:26 AM
Let's not get too excited, but bonds have begun an attempt to bounce at the higher side of their multi-month trend channel (the "uptrend" leading to...
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 5:25 PM
Taken in and of itself, today's Fed statement was "net-hawkish." That means, relative to the last announcement, the verbiage took small but noticea...
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July...
Tue, Nov 1 2016, 9:54 AM
The Summer months sure were great for bond markets, weren't they? Massive rally in June, all-time low yields in July, and reasonable stability just o...
Tue, Nov 1 2016, 5:40 PM
The political theater is ramping up quickly, with unexpected afternoon twitter headlines stealing the show from longstanding market movers like ISM ...
Mon, Oct 31 2016, 10:15 AM
It's no mystery that the prevailing trend in bond markets has been negative for several months. At first , this was no big deal, as Treasury yields ...
Mon, Oct 31 2016, 5:09 PM
The last trading day of any given month is more volatile and more actively traded than the average trading day. That wasn't the case today, which i...
Fri, Oct 28 2016, 10:26 AM
It's going to be a while until we can truly sort out whether the current bout of bond market weakness is the same sort of correction seen in early 201...
Fri, Oct 28 2016, 4:48 PM
After 2 days of heavy selling in global bond markets, today was a relative paradise of inactivity. Volume remained rather high by historical standard...
Thu, Oct 27 2016, 9:52 AM
Paul McCartney will only be signing about "bonds on the run" if he's in the market for a mortgage, because bonds are running in the wrong direction. ...
Thu, Oct 27 2016, 6:50 PM
Traders who reported seeing buying signals as 10yr yields approached 1.80 earlier this week would surely like to borrow a time machine . In retrospe...
Wed, Oct 26 2016, 9:37 AM
Last week provided some hope for bond markets due to a relatively strong move off the recent highs. 10yr yields recovered from the previous week's 1....
Wed, Oct 26 2016, 5:41 PM
Bonds were stronger during Asian market hours this morning, but things changed quickly as European trading got underway. Relative to Treasuries, Euro...
Tue, Oct 25 2016, 9:37 AM
At the risk of repeating a common refrain, rates have been rising gradually since July and in a more volatile way since early September. I've chalked...
Tue, Oct 25 2016, 4:58 PM
On the surface, today was a boring day for bond markets. 10yr yields ended less than a bp lower than yesterday's close and Fannie 3.0 MBS were comple...
Mon, Oct 24 2016, 9:33 AM
Rates and yields have been trending steadily higher since hitting all-time lows in early July. Those lows were most immediately attributable to the B...
Mon, Oct 24 2016, 5:34 PM
Bond markets ended the day in moderately weaker territory today, despite starting out in the Green. What happened?
Today was refreshingly straight...
Fri, Oct 21 2016, 10:04 AM
As can be seen in this morning's chart (and remembered in the hearts and minds of loan originators who closely follow market movements), October has b...
Fri, Oct 21 2016, 4:38 PM
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and rallied in the morning hours along with European bond markets. Most of the volume was in before 9:45 and th...
Thu, Oct 20 2016, 9:59 AM
The Fed is the ECB President Mario Draghi's childhood hero (with 'childhood' being a metaphorical term for the infancy of the ECB's response to the 20...
Thu, Oct 20 2016, 4:44 PM
Today was pretty anticlimactic . Most of my analysis is already available in the Day Ahead. If you're not the link-clicking type, it basically says...
Wed, Oct 19 2016, 9:45 AM
After worldwide rates hit all-time lows on the heels of Brexit, they consolidated in a narrow, sideways pattern until someone came up with the next pl...
Wed, Oct 19 2016, 4:56 PM
Bond markets spent yet another day consolidating inside their recent range. In terms of 10yr yields that means rates have fallen from last Friday's h...
Tue, Oct 18 2016, 9:47 AM
As we approach Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference, we are seeing a clearer display of underlying market motivat...
Tue, Oct 18 2016, 5:19 PM
If you've been following along with updates on MBS Live , today's recap will be old hat. Long story short, bonds have been selling off in October an...
Mon, Oct 17 2016, 9:43 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been one of the driving forces behind ultra-low rates around the world for several years, thanks to an aggressive...
Mon, Oct 17 2016, 5:33 PM
It could be a volatile week for bond markets, and that volatility could kick the ongoing negative trend into higher gear. It would have taken quite ...
Fri, Oct 14 2016, 10:01 AM
Never forget, even in a perpetual long-term downtrend--even in a downtrend with more room to run in the bigger picture--there will be corrections towa...
Fri, Oct 14 2016, 5:52 PM
Ahhh, the good old mystery move! There are so many potential contributors to this afternoon's sharp sell-off in bonds that it scarcely makes sense to...
Thu, Oct 13 2016, 9:12 AM
Even though yields have made new intraday highs on 9 out of the last 9 days, we may have seen some early clues about the selling trend leveling-off....
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