Fri, Oct 28 2016, 10:26 AM
It's going to be a while until we can truly sort out whether the current bout of bond market weakness is the same sort of correction seen in early 201...
Fri, Oct 28 2016, 4:48 PM
After 2 days of heavy selling in global bond markets, today was a relative paradise of inactivity. Volume remained rather high by historical standard...
Thu, Oct 27 2016, 9:52 AM
Paul McCartney will only be signing about "bonds on the run" if he's in the market for a mortgage, because bonds are running in the wrong direction. ...
Thu, Oct 27 2016, 6:50 PM
Traders who reported seeing buying signals as 10yr yields approached 1.80 earlier this week would surely like to borrow a time machine . In retrospe...
Wed, Oct 26 2016, 9:37 AM
Last week provided some hope for bond markets due to a relatively strong move off the recent highs. 10yr yields recovered from the previous week's 1....
Wed, Oct 26 2016, 5:41 PM
Bonds were stronger during Asian market hours this morning, but things changed quickly as European trading got underway. Relative to Treasuries, Euro...
Tue, Oct 25 2016, 9:37 AM
At the risk of repeating a common refrain, rates have been rising gradually since July and in a more volatile way since early September. I've chalked...
Tue, Oct 25 2016, 4:58 PM
On the surface, today was a boring day for bond markets. 10yr yields ended less than a bp lower than yesterday's close and Fannie 3.0 MBS were comple...
Mon, Oct 24 2016, 9:33 AM
Rates and yields have been trending steadily higher since hitting all-time lows in early July. Those lows were most immediately attributable to the B...
Mon, Oct 24 2016, 5:34 PM
Bond markets ended the day in moderately weaker territory today, despite starting out in the Green. What happened?
Today was refreshingly straight...
Fri, Oct 21 2016, 10:04 AM
As can be seen in this morning's chart (and remembered in the hearts and minds of loan originators who closely follow market movements), October has b...
Fri, Oct 21 2016, 4:38 PM
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and rallied in the morning hours along with European bond markets. Most of the volume was in before 9:45 and th...
Thu, Oct 20 2016, 9:59 AM
The Fed is the ECB President Mario Draghi's childhood hero (with 'childhood' being a metaphorical term for the infancy of the ECB's response to the 20...
Thu, Oct 20 2016, 4:44 PM
Today was pretty anticlimactic . Most of my analysis is already available in the Day Ahead. If you're not the link-clicking type, it basically says...
Wed, Oct 19 2016, 9:45 AM
After worldwide rates hit all-time lows on the heels of Brexit, they consolidated in a narrow, sideways pattern until someone came up with the next pl...
Wed, Oct 19 2016, 4:56 PM
Bond markets spent yet another day consolidating inside their recent range. In terms of 10yr yields that means rates have fallen from last Friday's h...
Tue, Oct 18 2016, 9:47 AM
As we approach Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference, we are seeing a clearer display of underlying market motivat...
Tue, Oct 18 2016, 5:19 PM
If you've been following along with updates on MBS Live , today's recap will be old hat. Long story short, bonds have been selling off in October an...
Mon, Oct 17 2016, 9:43 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been one of the driving forces behind ultra-low rates around the world for several years, thanks to an aggressive...
Mon, Oct 17 2016, 5:33 PM
It could be a volatile week for bond markets, and that volatility could kick the ongoing negative trend into higher gear. It would have taken quite ...
Fri, Oct 14 2016, 10:01 AM
Never forget, even in a perpetual long-term downtrend--even in a downtrend with more room to run in the bigger picture--there will be corrections towa...
Fri, Oct 14 2016, 5:52 PM
Ahhh, the good old mystery move! There are so many potential contributors to this afternoon's sharp sell-off in bonds that it scarcely makes sense to...
Thu, Oct 13 2016, 9:12 AM
Even though yields have made new intraday highs on 9 out of the last 9 days, we may have seen some early clues about the selling trend leveling-off....
Thu, Oct 13 2016, 5:04 PM
Corrections and consolidations are a natural part of market movements. It's uncommon for losing streaks to last more than 8 straight days without rep...
Wed, Oct 12 2016, 9:12 AM
Today brings the release of the MINUTES from the most recent FOMC meeting. This is distinct event from the ANNOUNCEMENT that happened about 3 weeks...
Wed, Oct 12 2016, 5:28 PM
No one was really sure what the Fed Minutes possibly could have said to surprise markets, but that didn't stop traders from pricing-in a bit of defe...
Tue, Oct 11 2016, 9:21 AM
Bond markets offered a glimmer or two of hope last week as yields looked to be leveling off heading into Columbus Day weekend. In other words, 10yr...
Tue, Oct 11 2016, 4:46 PM
Bond markets were weaker out of the gate this morning as the US got caught up with the rest of the world after a "risk-on" Monday session for most o...
Fri, Oct 7 2016, 9:56 AM
The rest of the day will be all about bond markets sorting out their reaction to this morning's decent NFP numbers. Payrolls hit 156k in September, s...
Fri, Oct 7 2016, 4:07 PM
Let's clear this up at the outset: when we talk about "volatility" these days, it's not the same volatility that presided over some of the multi-poi...
Thu, Oct 6 2016, 10:06 AM
Things continue to be serious for bond markets (MBS Live members already have their first alert on the day--a rarity before 10am--as well as a gener...
Thu, Oct 6 2016, 5:33 PM
Bond markets were already fairly close to the important technical levels near 1.75% (10yr yields) earlier this morning, and they continued getting pu...
Wed, Oct 5 2016, 9:25 AM
You might remember some seemingly dramatic headlines from early September when rates attempted their first big break of the dominant range (e.g. "Yes ...
Wed, Oct 5 2016, 4:42 PM
It was a pretty straightforward trading day considering what's at stake in the bigger picture. Bonds were under slight pressure overnight, but were...
Tue, Oct 4 2016, 9:55 AM
There are no significant economic reports or scheduled events on tap for today. This will give us an opportunity to feel out the new trading ideas,...
Tue, Oct 4 2016, 3:51 PM
Bonds tanked today and at first glance, there weren't any great explanations as to why. But headlines quickly surfaced regarding the European Central...
Mon, Oct 3 2016, 9:15 AM
As October begins, bond markets are pretty close to trading levels seen at the end of August--close enough to call September a "flat month" anyway. ...
Mon, Oct 3 2016, 5:41 PM
Almost like clockwork, bond markets weakened JUST enough to cast doubt on their commitment to reentering the sub-1.60% range. This follows a week of ...
Fri, Sep 30 2016, 9:14 AM
As we approach the rest of the trading day, keep the info from this month/quarter-end bond buying primer in mind. Remember that the bond market unoff...
Fri, Sep 30 2016, 5:04 PM
While there has been a good amount of volatility in September, it was fairly flat, relative to August's latest levels. Up until this week, that was...
Thu, Sep 29 2016, 9:34 AM
Yesterday's moderate weakness in bond markets comes at at inopportune time for those hoping to see another push back to all-time lows (in either Treas...
Thu, Sep 29 2016, 5:09 PM
Bond markets were weaker overnight and continued pushing toward the first of two important resistance levels (think "ceilings") during the domestic se...
Wed, Sep 28 2016, 9:21 AM
I talk a lot about " trends "--a word that's easy enough to understand in a general sense, but more esoteric when we try to understand it in specific ...
Wed, Sep 28 2016, 5:33 PM
It was an interesting day for bond markets, mainly because there was such an immense amount of news that SEEMED like it should matter. The deluge o...
Tue, Sep 27 2016, 9:35 AM
Heading into last night's presidential debate, there had been a small amount of buzz among market participants about the potential ifs and thens. T...
Tue, Sep 27 2016, 4:31 PM
Glory was limited, in general, today. Most of it went to Treasuries as opposed to MBS. Put in plainer terms, 10yr yields fell 2-3bps on the day whil...
Mon, Sep 26 2016, 10:10 AM
It seems that money managers and financial journalists will not relent in their calls for US bond yields to have reached a long-term floor this summer...
Mon, Sep 26 2016, 4:57 PM
Up until roughly September 9th, yields had been holding inside a narrow, consolidating range for nearly 3 months. They've since spent most of the pas...
Fri, Sep 23 2016, 9:42 AM
Bond markets have been surprisingly calm this week, given what's at stake. 3 weeks ago, we were faced with the new prospect of the European Central B...
Fri, Sep 23 2016, 3:58 PM
For MBS Live members, this recap will largely be a rehash of the day's most recent update which pointed out a consolidative range in force over the pa...
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