Wed, Sep 7 2016, 3:34 PM
Treasuries and MBS held steady today, consolidating yesterday's gains and playing it safe ahead of tomorrow's ECB Announcement.
There really isn't ...
Tue, Sep 6 2016, 9:24 AM
Normally, weaker readings on nonfarm payrolls result in bond market gains. While that was initially true on Friday, in less than 30 minutes, bonds we...
Tue, Sep 6 2016, 4:35 PM
When it comes to economic data that moves bond markets, there are only a few reports that compete for the 1st-runner-up spot behind Nonfarm Payrolls...
Fri, Sep 2 2016, 8:30 AM
It goes against the grain of conventional summertime market wisdom, to some extent, to have so much focus on any piece of economic data as "making or ...
Fri, Sep 2 2016, 4:56 PM
Happy Labor Day weekend, everyone. Gotta close out some longs, but may jump back in on Tuesday.
Cheers, Bond Buyers
That's the short ve...
Thu, Sep 1 2016, 8:53 AM
NFP weeks are always a bit more robust in terms of other top shelf economic data. This typically includes one or both of the ISM reports, Chicago PMI...
Thu, Sep 1 2016, 4:16 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory and were approaching the highest yields of the past 2 months by mid-morning. Part of the negativity could hav...
Wed, Aug 31 2016, 9:35 AM
Who remembers asymptotes from high school? Those are the curved lines that gradually approach a certain level--getting closer and closer, but never r...
Wed, Aug 31 2016, 5:43 PM
Bonds responded generally favorably to the available economic data, which included on-target ADP jobs numbers (177 vs 175k forecast) and weaker Chicag...
Tue, Aug 30 2016, 9:12 AM
With bond markets having clearly consolidated heading into last week's Jackson Hole speeches and with Jackson hole ultimately NOT resulting in a a c...
Tue, Aug 30 2016, 4:24 PM
Today was very different than the past two days. Friday was one of the biggest days of selling seen during the July/August time frame and yesterday...
Mon, Aug 29 2016, 9:33 AM
Friday was a volatile day for markets as investors were anxiously awaiting comments from Fed Chair Yellen that might speak to the likelihood of a Fed ...
Mon, Aug 29 2016, 4:54 PM
It's one thing to HOPE that any particular selling spree in bond markets is merely the product of a few temporary events that can be easily explained ...
Fri, Aug 26 2016, 4:31 AM
All too many lookers on--myself included--have made far too much of today's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Yellen (11am ET, we're led to believe)....
Fri, Aug 26 2016, 3:01 PM
All eyes were on Yellen's 10am speech from Jackson Hole, then all eyes were closed as traders fell asleep from boredom. Yellen said nothing we didn...
Thu, Aug 25 2016, 8:34 AM
Most likely, today will just be another day in the range-bound grind for bond markets leading up to tomorrow's Jackson Hole speech from Yellen. Altho...
Thu, Aug 25 2016, 4:14 PM
As we discussed this morning, sometimes markets will take a "lead-off" ahead of a big potential market mover if there's an underlying predisposition t...
Wed, Aug 24 2016, 9:27 AM
Welcome to another episode of Extreme Boredom: Bond Market Edition.
In today's episode, bonds are pressing even further into record territory, only...
Wed, Aug 24 2016, 5:06 PM
Whether or not Yellen actually says something that moves markets on Friday is unimportant. Maybe she will. Probably she won't. Either way , we jus...
Tue, Aug 23 2016, 9:32 AM
To say that bonds have been range-bound recently would be an understatement. I'm running out of ways to say it, and perhaps you're running out of the...
Tue, Aug 23 2016, 4:02 PM
We might have expected a bigger movement in the wake of the colossal improvement in New Home Sales (654k vs 582k previously, 580k forecast), but bon...
Mon, Aug 22 2016, 9:19 AM
By the end of this week--and quite possibly for the next several weeks--you'll be tired of hearing about Jackson Hole . I know I'm already tired of ...
Mon, Aug 22 2016, 6:00 PM
I apologize for tricking you with the title. The "shocking" part was unabashed sarcasm . It's not that anyone here is clairvoyant. Certainly, we n...
Fri, Aug 19 2016, 9:03 AM
Yesterday's recap signed off with the following thought: "no data on tap for tomorrow [in reference to today], the trading range should be as good a g...
Fri, Aug 19 2016, 4:10 PM
As the attached video suggests, "red happens." It really does! After all, if you were the puppet-master behind rate movement, and if you'd decided...
Thu, Aug 18 2016, 9:20 AM
Picture it: a smoky lounge, the vaguely distinctive clinking of ice cubes in cocktail glasses, a mellow jazz band, and a tantalizing performance of "...
Thu, Aug 18 2016, 5:37 PM
Today was one of the many summer trading sessions that you wouldn't miss if it never happened . Bond markets ended up making modest gains after the ...
Wed, Aug 17 2016, 9:37 AM
With no significant data set for this morning, markets' attention will be fully turned to this afternoon's FOMC Minutes release. The Minutes provid...
Wed, Aug 17 2016, 3:47 PM
Surprise surprise! The range is still the range for bond markets and mortgage rates. Yesterday's tough talk from Fed Presidents Dudley and Lockhar...
Tue, Aug 16 2016, 8:30 AM
We've recently seen a refreshing reconnection between bond markets and economic data. I say "refreshing" because the classic connection between str...
Tue, Aug 16 2016, 3:48 PM
There's something that's just too fun about entertaining conspiracy theories --especially when it comes to the Fed's rhetorical platform. Take for i...
Mon, Aug 15 2016, 9:27 AM
If you're on the very youngest fringe of the mortgage market participant age range, you might know what a "meme" is. And if you're up to speed on anc...
Mon, Aug 15 2016, 3:50 PM
Sure, we've 'endured' the rigors of a day-to-day ups and downs in bond markets over the past month, but if we step back from the charts by more than a...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 9:08 AM
By Wednesday of this week, we were assessing the possibility of a positive break of the range in bonds. Yesterday, those hopes were dashed by a fai...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 4:23 PM
Today was another nice, simple day for bond markets. Yields entered the domestic session slightly lower, thanks to weak data overseas. Even then, ...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 9:41 AM
In July 2012 and July 2016, 10yr yields visit to all time lows was cordoned-off fairly neatly by yields in the 1.50-1.52 neighborhood. We've been t...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 3:59 PM
Coming into today, bond markets were amped up. UK 10yr yields hit new all-time lows yesterday. German 10yr yields were close to hitting all-time l...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 9:04 AM
First off, let's cover the huge drop in MBS prices overnight. Fannie 3.0s, for instance, closed at 103-29 and then began today at 103-23--all this de...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 5:12 PM
Bonds strong overnight with more help from Europe
10yr Auction strong this afternoon with massive foreign support
1.52-1.62 range in 10yr yields...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 9:11 AM
Today's chart has a piece of technical analysis I haven't posted in quite a while, but it's fairly easy to understand and fairly useful. The tech in ...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 4:59 PM
Bonds were facing headwinds as the week began. Friday had just seen an exceptionally strong NFP. Yields were quickly pushing toward the higher end o...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 9:12 AM
Bond markets sold-off fairly aggressively following Friday's strong jobs report with 10yr yields moving up nearly 10bps and Fannie 3.0s falling roughl...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 5:30 PM
Today could have been better, but it could have been much worse. After the big spike that followed Friday's jobs report, bonds were on the weaker edg...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 8:29 AM
Granted, by the time most of you read this, NFP will already be out, but I'm not as interested in the initial reaction as I am in how things play out ...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 6:39 PM
In the constantly-evolving modern era of market-watching, it's rare to see simply, old-school "cause and effect" relationship between data and market ...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 8:44 AM
Bond markets are stronger out of the gate this morning as the Bank of England (BOE) followed through on expectations to cut its key policy rate from...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 5:45 PM
This recap won't be too terribly different from the morning update on MBS Live. In fact, that's about all the more complicated today ended up being. ...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 9:13 AM
Even if you're like me and have only watched survivor a few times, that's enough to understand the dynamic in bond markets today. Bonds can "survive...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 5:50 PM
Here is the primer on Corporate Bond Issuance for those who need it. I realize it's been linked in almost every post this week, but that's the kind o...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 8:52 AM
The 2 weeks leading up to last week's FOMC Announcement (and Bank of Japan too) saw an exceptionally narrow trading range. The 2 weeks before that sa...
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