Wed, Aug 17 2016, 9:37 AM
With no significant data set for this morning, markets' attention will be fully turned to this afternoon's FOMC Minutes release. The Minutes provid...
Wed, Aug 17 2016, 3:47 PM
Surprise surprise! The range is still the range for bond markets and mortgage rates. Yesterday's tough talk from Fed Presidents Dudley and Lockhar...
Tue, Aug 16 2016, 8:30 AM
We've recently seen a refreshing reconnection between bond markets and economic data. I say "refreshing" because the classic connection between str...
Tue, Aug 16 2016, 3:48 PM
There's something that's just too fun about entertaining conspiracy theories --especially when it comes to the Fed's rhetorical platform. Take for i...
Mon, Aug 15 2016, 9:27 AM
If you're on the very youngest fringe of the mortgage market participant age range, you might know what a "meme" is. And if you're up to speed on anc...
Mon, Aug 15 2016, 3:50 PM
Sure, we've 'endured' the rigors of a day-to-day ups and downs in bond markets over the past month, but if we step back from the charts by more than a...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 9:08 AM
By Wednesday of this week, we were assessing the possibility of a positive break of the range in bonds. Yesterday, those hopes were dashed by a fai...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 4:23 PM
Today was another nice, simple day for bond markets. Yields entered the domestic session slightly lower, thanks to weak data overseas. Even then, ...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 9:41 AM
In July 2012 and July 2016, 10yr yields visit to all time lows was cordoned-off fairly neatly by yields in the 1.50-1.52 neighborhood. We've been t...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 3:59 PM
Coming into today, bond markets were amped up. UK 10yr yields hit new all-time lows yesterday. German 10yr yields were close to hitting all-time l...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 9:04 AM
First off, let's cover the huge drop in MBS prices overnight. Fannie 3.0s, for instance, closed at 103-29 and then began today at 103-23--all this de...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 5:12 PM
Bonds strong overnight with more help from Europe
10yr Auction strong this afternoon with massive foreign support
1.52-1.62 range in 10yr yields...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 9:11 AM
Today's chart has a piece of technical analysis I haven't posted in quite a while, but it's fairly easy to understand and fairly useful. The tech in ...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 4:59 PM
Bonds were facing headwinds as the week began. Friday had just seen an exceptionally strong NFP. Yields were quickly pushing toward the higher end o...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 9:12 AM
Bond markets sold-off fairly aggressively following Friday's strong jobs report with 10yr yields moving up nearly 10bps and Fannie 3.0s falling roughl...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 5:30 PM
Today could have been better, but it could have been much worse. After the big spike that followed Friday's jobs report, bonds were on the weaker edg...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 8:29 AM
Granted, by the time most of you read this, NFP will already be out, but I'm not as interested in the initial reaction as I am in how things play out ...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 6:39 PM
In the constantly-evolving modern era of market-watching, it's rare to see simply, old-school "cause and effect" relationship between data and market ...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 8:44 AM
Bond markets are stronger out of the gate this morning as the Bank of England (BOE) followed through on expectations to cut its key policy rate from...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 5:45 PM
This recap won't be too terribly different from the morning update on MBS Live. In fact, that's about all the more complicated today ended up being. ...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 9:13 AM
Even if you're like me and have only watched survivor a few times, that's enough to understand the dynamic in bond markets today. Bonds can "survive...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 5:50 PM
Here is the primer on Corporate Bond Issuance for those who need it. I realize it's been linked in almost every post this week, but that's the kind o...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 8:52 AM
The 2 weeks leading up to last week's FOMC Announcement (and Bank of Japan too) saw an exceptionally narrow trading range. The 2 weeks before that sa...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 5:24 PM
Bond markets capped a rather unpleasant 2-day move today. While 10yr yields only rose 3.4bps by the close, the losses put us right back in the 1.52-1...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 8:59 AM
Back in 2015--almost exactly a year ago, actually--the order of the day was determining the timing of the Fed's first rate hike since the financial cr...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 7:01 PM
We were already defensive, to some extent, about the possibility that last Friday's gains were driven by month-end trading needs. Indeed, there was a...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 8:39 AM
With 10yr yields up only 2.2bps to begin the day and MBS down only 2 ticks, it's interesting to note that initial reaction to the overnight policy ann...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 4:46 PM
Heading into the close at much stronger levels this afternoon, it would be easy to overlook the fact that bond markets were weaker overnight (followin...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 9:06 AM
One tricky thing about technical analysis (things like moving averages and other mathematical formulas applied to charts in order to get them to cough...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 4:57 PM
In the bigger picture, today was all about confirming and consolidating yesterday's gains. Trading levels held inside narrow ranges for both MBS an...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 8:21 AM
First thing's first: "consolidation" refers to a pronounced narrowing of a trading range after an uptrend or downtrend. Consolidations can occur with...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 4:49 PM
Dovish vs Hawkish: This refers to how accommodative the Fed's policy stance might be. Have you ever seen a hawk stare down its prey? That's how a ...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Apri...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 9:03 AM
Smart stakeholders in financial markets tend to avoid assuming or asserting that particular trading levels WILL behave in a particular way. There are...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 6:26 PM
Last week saw the yields increasingly hold inside the "new narrow" range between 1.54 and 1.59. Frankly, I felt like it was a long shot for that ra...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond markets begin another week in the same sideways range, still waiting for the same events to suggest the next concerted effort to take yields hi...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 4:30 PM
Bond markets did nothing wrong today. There was a bit of red on trade screens (indicating modestly higher yields in Treasuries and lower MBS prices...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 9:05 AM
If bond-trading aliens scanned the universe for signs of life and happened upon planet earth this week, they probably wouldn't even send an imperial p...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 5:32 PM
Bond markets had yet another uneventful day with yet another close inside the same old range that's dominated the entire week (with one brief exceptio...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 8:49 AM
With slight weakness overnight, bonds begin the domestic trading session with their backs against the wall, yet again. The "wall" in this case could ...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 5:51 PM
Any time we watch a sideways range rates with fairly clear technical boundaries, it's only natural to hope that the upper boundary will hold up in the...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 9:25 AM
Bond yields hit all time lows. Then they bounced higher. Widespread discussion ensued on the next "key levels" to watch. The goal, of course, is ...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 4:30 PM
Over the past two days there has been a relative explosion of analyst interviews (from big firms like JP Morgan , etc.) calling for big, inevitable...
Tue, Jul 19 2016, 8:49 AM
The concept of "the gap" is one of the most basic when it comes to analyzing charts of financial market movement. Under the most common definition of...
Tue, Jul 19 2016, 5:15 PM
In the magical sharing circle that is global financial markets, the "talking stick" was passed to bonds, as it is every day. But rather than share a ...
Mon, Jul 18 2016, 9:33 AM
Have you noticed a few more email auto-responses starting late last week? Summer travel season is in full swing and this week is an especially good "...
Mon, Jul 18 2016, 6:18 PM
Friday afternoon was a complicated thing to think about when it comes to markets and their motivations for movement. Given the time of day that the T...
Fri, Jul 15 2016, 8:31 AM
Granted, economic data in the US is far from the only game in town at the moment. In fact, it's probably one of the least important games there is, ...
Fri, Jul 15 2016, 6:34 PM
Except for the very end of the trading session, today was all about domestic economic data and all about the logical bond market weakness that followe...
Thu, Jul 14 2016, 8:30 AM
Bonds are back on the ropes again to start the day as the Bank of England (BOE) surprised markets by holding rates steady. This was their way of fl...
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