Thu, Oct 13 2016, 5:04 PM
Corrections and consolidations are a natural part of market movements. It's uncommon for losing streaks to last more than 8 straight days without rep...
Wed, Oct 12 2016, 9:12 AM
Today brings the release of the MINUTES from the most recent FOMC meeting. This is distinct event from the ANNOUNCEMENT that happened about 3 weeks...
Wed, Oct 12 2016, 5:28 PM
No one was really sure what the Fed Minutes possibly could have said to surprise markets, but that didn't stop traders from pricing-in a bit of defe...
Tue, Oct 11 2016, 9:21 AM
Bond markets offered a glimmer or two of hope last week as yields looked to be leveling off heading into Columbus Day weekend. In other words, 10yr...
Tue, Oct 11 2016, 4:46 PM
Bond markets were weaker out of the gate this morning as the US got caught up with the rest of the world after a "risk-on" Monday session for most o...
Fri, Oct 7 2016, 9:56 AM
The rest of the day will be all about bond markets sorting out their reaction to this morning's decent NFP numbers. Payrolls hit 156k in September, s...
Fri, Oct 7 2016, 4:07 PM
Let's clear this up at the outset: when we talk about "volatility" these days, it's not the same volatility that presided over some of the multi-poi...
Thu, Oct 6 2016, 10:06 AM
Things continue to be serious for bond markets (MBS Live members already have their first alert on the day--a rarity before 10am--as well as a gener...
Thu, Oct 6 2016, 5:33 PM
Bond markets were already fairly close to the important technical levels near 1.75% (10yr yields) earlier this morning, and they continued getting pu...
Wed, Oct 5 2016, 9:25 AM
You might remember some seemingly dramatic headlines from early September when rates attempted their first big break of the dominant range (e.g. "Yes ...
Wed, Oct 5 2016, 4:42 PM
It was a pretty straightforward trading day considering what's at stake in the bigger picture. Bonds were under slight pressure overnight, but were...
Tue, Oct 4 2016, 9:55 AM
There are no significant economic reports or scheduled events on tap for today. This will give us an opportunity to feel out the new trading ideas,...
Tue, Oct 4 2016, 3:51 PM
Bonds tanked today and at first glance, there weren't any great explanations as to why. But headlines quickly surfaced regarding the European Central...
Mon, Oct 3 2016, 9:15 AM
As October begins, bond markets are pretty close to trading levels seen at the end of August--close enough to call September a "flat month" anyway. ...
Mon, Oct 3 2016, 5:41 PM
Almost like clockwork, bond markets weakened JUST enough to cast doubt on their commitment to reentering the sub-1.60% range. This follows a week of ...
Fri, Sep 30 2016, 9:14 AM
As we approach the rest of the trading day, keep the info from this month/quarter-end bond buying primer in mind. Remember that the bond market unoff...
Fri, Sep 30 2016, 5:04 PM
While there has been a good amount of volatility in September, it was fairly flat, relative to August's latest levels. Up until this week, that was...
Thu, Sep 29 2016, 9:34 AM
Yesterday's moderate weakness in bond markets comes at at inopportune time for those hoping to see another push back to all-time lows (in either Treas...
Thu, Sep 29 2016, 5:09 PM
Bond markets were weaker overnight and continued pushing toward the first of two important resistance levels (think "ceilings") during the domestic se...
Wed, Sep 28 2016, 9:21 AM
I talk a lot about " trends "--a word that's easy enough to understand in a general sense, but more esoteric when we try to understand it in specific ...
Wed, Sep 28 2016, 5:33 PM
It was an interesting day for bond markets, mainly because there was such an immense amount of news that SEEMED like it should matter. The deluge o...
Tue, Sep 27 2016, 9:35 AM
Heading into last night's presidential debate, there had been a small amount of buzz among market participants about the potential ifs and thens. T...
Tue, Sep 27 2016, 4:31 PM
Glory was limited, in general, today. Most of it went to Treasuries as opposed to MBS. Put in plainer terms, 10yr yields fell 2-3bps on the day whil...
Mon, Sep 26 2016, 10:10 AM
It seems that money managers and financial journalists will not relent in their calls for US bond yields to have reached a long-term floor this summer...
Mon, Sep 26 2016, 4:57 PM
Up until roughly September 9th, yields had been holding inside a narrow, consolidating range for nearly 3 months. They've since spent most of the pas...
Fri, Sep 23 2016, 9:42 AM
Bond markets have been surprisingly calm this week, given what's at stake. 3 weeks ago, we were faced with the new prospect of the European Central B...
Fri, Sep 23 2016, 3:58 PM
For MBS Live members, this recap will largely be a rehash of the day's most recent update which pointed out a consolidative range in force over the pa...
Thu, Sep 22 2016, 9:43 AM
The Fed announcement is in the rearview and bond markets are beginning their 3rd straight day of improvement. Does this mean last week's sharper move...
Wed, Sep 21 2016, 9:27 AM
Bond markets had two central bank announcements to endure today, and the first one is already out of the way, sort of... The Bank of Japan unleashed ...
Wed, Sep 21 2016, 5:41 PM
It was an interesting Fed day for bond markets, with 10yr yields dropping 3.8bps and 2yr yields not dropping at all. That's the first clue that mar...
Wed, Sep 21 2016, 2:02 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June...
Tue, Sep 20 2016, 9:09 AM
The approach to this week's big-ticket events has been very straightforward so far. This has been aided, no doubt, by the absence of other signific...
Tue, Sep 20 2016, 4:09 PM
For the 5th day in a row, the total trading range in Treasuries and MBS fell inside the single day range set last Tuesday. Market-watchers consider...
Mon, Sep 19 2016, 10:06 AM
The past several years have marked a historically low level of a volatility in interest rates. People define volatility in different ways, so let's j...
Mon, Sep 19 2016, 5:32 PM
It was a pretty simple day as far as bond markets are concerned. The collective unconscious of the bond-trading population was perfectly content to...
Fri, Sep 16 2016, 9:26 AM
With the most recent spike in rates, 10yr yields have returned to 2016's dominant trend-lines for an interesting bounce (or "stall," depending on ho...
Fri, Sep 16 2016, 5:08 PM
I'll save a majority of risk-mongering for next week's opener, but some of it is warranted for today. The timing of calendar events has resulted in ...
Thu, Sep 15 2016, 8:29 AM
After several days with essentially no relevant economic data, bond markets will get an entire week's worth this morning. The headliner is undoubtedl...
Thu, Sep 15 2016, 4:24 PM
Bond markets had an opportunity to jump back on the selling wagon today after yesterday's positive bounce. As we discussed, yesterday's gains were dr...
Wed, Sep 14 2016, 9:37 AM
Welcome back to the first potentially significant long-term bounce in interest rates since the first half of 2015. Rates haven't covered as much grou...
Wed, Sep 14 2016, 5:22 PM
Bond markets made modest gains today, but yields nonetheless closed at their highest recent levels apart from the previous day. It was the same dyn...
Tue, Sep 13 2016, 9:25 AM
The past three days have been interesting for financial markets--Friday and Monday particularly. Friday saw the biggest break outside the established...
Tue, Sep 13 2016, 4:37 PM
If you're just getting caught up with today's bond market movements, they weren't pretty . On the scale where the worst days of mid-2013 were "10/10...
Mon, Sep 12 2016, 8:56 AM
Last week ended with heavy selling in both stocks and bonds. It was exceptionally bad for stocks (a fact that should have been a clue to all the repo...
Mon, Sep 12 2016, 4:24 PM
Heading into today, there was a lot of hype about a speech from a member of the Federal Reserve, Lael Brainard. She's not an outspoken Fed governor,...
Fri, Sep 9 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond markets have recently set records when it comes to being flat and directionless. Technical studies that measure the presence and strength of a...
Fri, Sep 9 2016, 5:39 PM
Here's why financial news sucks so bad... Sorry, I said "sucks." I realize that might offend three of you, but I'm willing to alienate that half of ...
Thu, Sep 8 2016, 8:40 AM
Mario Draghi is the President of the European Central Bank (ECB). He's Europe's version of Janet Yellen, for lack of a more eloquent description. Th...
Thu, Sep 8 2016, 4:40 PM
Let's be real. Asset purchases by major central banks are effectively an allow a nce for financial markets--free money that they know will be coming ...
Wed, Sep 7 2016, 8:49 AM
What a difference a day makes. With the recent trading range being so narrow, it didn't take much for the overall tone in bond markets to move from...
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