Thu, Jun 9 2016, 9:28 AM
European bond buying failed to provide a big boost yesterday
Bonds instead getting a boost today, right out of the gate, but not exclusively from E...
Thu, Jun 9 2016, 5:28 PM
MBS ended 1 tick lower, but apart from yesterday, it tied the best closing levels in more than a year
10yr yields ended at 1.682, 2.2bps lower
E...
Wed, Jun 8 2016, 8:40 AM
The last time the European Central Bank officially embarked on a big bond buying campaign, we were a few months into 2015 and US rates had already b...
Wed, Jun 8 2016, 5:12 PM
10yr yields hit 1.697 today, matching last Friday's best levels--the lowest since April 7th
Less than 2bps of movement all day though!
Fannie 3....
Tue, Jun 7 2016, 9:42 AM
Bonds have maintained long-term consolidation trend almost all year
We have yet to see a meaningful attempt to break out
But such an attempt mus...
Tue, Jun 7 2016, 5:25 PM
10yr German Bunds hit 0.048 today
Tomorrow marks inception of Europe's corporate bond buying program
US bond markets rallied during European hou...
Mon, Jun 6 2016, 9:36 AM
Very light economic calendar this week
Fed Announcement next week
Yellen speaks later today (jobs data will invariably come up)
bond yields a...
Mon, Jun 6 2016, 5:17 PM
Bonds slightly weaker for no overt reasons
Yellen speech hotly anticipated and quickly overlooked
Taken together with Friday's gains, today mean...
Fri, Jun 3 2016, 8:17 AM
Strong, stable payroll growth is old news. Yet another NFP reading north of 150k or another 5%-ish unemployment reading are just a few more bricks in...
Fri, Jun 3 2016, 4:35 PM
Jobs reports generally don't move markets any more
But they do when they're this far from the forecast
NFP came in at 38k vs 164k
This adds t...
Thu, Jun 2 2016, 8:19 AM
ADP data rescheduled for today
ECB Press Conference on tap
Not much else by way of data
Slow trickle of gains makes for potential momentum sh...
Thu, Jun 2 2016, 4:30 PM
Bonds rallied on rate-friendly press conference from European Central Bank
Gains subsided as Europe closed
Bounce in oil and stocks may have con...
Wed, Jun 1 2016, 8:20 AM
Yesterday was tense at moments, with several attempts made to break the range
Not only did the range hold, but we quickly moved back to the other s...
Wed, Jun 1 2016, 4:44 PM
Bond markets stronger overnight
New 2-week lows in 10yr yields, but weaker bounce after ISM
Biggest issue with ISM was Prices Paid (63.5 vs 59.8...
Tue, May 31 2016, 8:29 AM
Last week's moderate resilience could have been temporary due to 'month-end'
This could also help today, to some extent
If it doesn't, it's the ...
Tue, May 31 2016, 5:05 PM
Bonds opened weaker as Yellen's Friday comments reverberated
data was largely ignored
Bonds rallied after Brexit poll and technical ceiling in 1...
Fri, May 27 2016, 8:27 AM
GDP at 8:30am won't matter
Consumer Sentiment at 10am won't matter
Yellen at 10:30am (and 1:15pm) won't matter
All of the above--but especial...
Fri, May 27 2016, 2:05 PM
GDP was +0.8 vs +0.9 forecast this morning
Consumer Sentiment was 94.7 vs 95.4
Inflation expectations were the lowest since 2010
But markets ...
Thu, May 26 2016, 9:02 AM
Less about data and more about Fed outlook
3.5-day weekend is also a consideration for tradeflows
2 distinct options correspond to holding vs b...
Thu, May 26 2016, 5:59 PM
Early month-end trading environment provided constant support
Strong Durable Goods headline didn't matter
gains were linear into the noon hour, ...
Wed, May 25 2016, 9:02 AM
Today brings 5yr Treasury auction = "supply pressure"
Technical analysis is still negative
Still, we can hope to get lucky with help from 'mont...
Wed, May 25 2016, 4:34 PM
Bonds have been sideways to slightly weaker since last week's FOMC Minutes
Markets not only coming to terms with increased June/July rate hike odds...
Tue, May 24 2016, 9:11 AM
Bonds continue sideways grind in bigger picture
Lots of focus remaining on Oil prices in news and analytical community
Is it justified?
As...
Tue, May 24 2016, 5:37 PM
Bonds were weaker throughout European hours (3am to 1pm)
Stock prices moved significantly higher and were well-correlated with bond losses
10yr ...
Mon, May 23 2016, 9:43 AM
After 2012, low rates in US have followed Europe
Even then, US rates have set their own limits
Now we're bouncing along those limits again and '...
Mon, May 23 2016, 5:18 PM
The title says it all
Overnight session was calm
European bonds were weaker at the close, putting pressure on US bond markets
Bonds bounced b...
Fri, May 20 2016, 9:14 AM
It is the bigger picture, as opposed to day-to-day minutia that will drive trading momentum
Trading levels and technicals suggest an utterly indeci...
Fri, May 20 2016, 5:04 PM
One of the most anticlimactic days in recent memory
bonds did nothing other than shuffle through some incidental 'housekeeping' trades
yields cl...
Thu, May 19 2016, 8:53 AM
Yesterday was a wake-up call, forcing us to think about defense vs offense
Shorter term trends already under attack
longer term trends aren't to...
Thu, May 19 2016, 4:54 PM
Bonds undergo token correction after yesterday's rout
technicals remain precarious
Fed speeches were in focus, but turned out to be fairly non...
Wed, May 18 2016, 9:06 AM
Just looking at 10yr or MBS doesn't paint too much of a picture
But when we compare longer-term with shorter-term debt, things become clear
Bond...
Wed, May 18 2016, 5:02 PM
Anxiety was growing yesterday about the Fed Minutes surprising
Bonds weakened
The Fed Minutes surprised
Bonds weakened some more
This coul...
Tue, May 17 2016, 8:22 AM
"Bad" is a relative term, but momentum may be shifting
Today's trading will be pivotal in determining that
The stakes are not too high, for now ...
Tue, May 17 2016, 5:34 PM
2 things: tomorrow's FOMC Minutes and Today's Dell corporate bond
Both put pressure on bond markets
majority of weakness was in afternoon ...
Mon, May 16 2016, 9:03 AM
Bonds have stayed strong, despite apparent headwinds
Technicals suggest we're due for a bounce
Such a bounce could still be part of a broader, p...
Mon, May 16 2016, 5:20 PM
Bond markets began in slightly weaker territory and kept losing ground
Most of the losses were in by 10am as corporate issuance became the trade...
Fri, May 13 2016, 8:23 AM
10yr yields still consolidating in bigger picture.
"triangles" often throw head-fakes
Stocks' fate still unclear
Retail Sales is only big-...
Fri, May 13 2016, 5:49 PM
Modestly strong overnight session gave way to losses following Retail Sales data
Bonds never went too red and then gradually found footing
No ...
Thu, May 12 2016, 8:50 AM
1.72 has been more of a roadblock than any other level for 10yr yields
We're currently at risk of bouncing there
Today's data may not help, bu...
Thu, May 12 2016, 5:10 PM
bond markets took a hit overnight and never fully recovered
Yields topped out heading into the NYSE open and again after the auction
30yr auctio...
Wed, May 11 2016, 8:35 AM
Corporate issuance expected to continue
Treasury Auction cycle in full swing with 10's today and 30's tomorrow
Overseas auctions add to global s...
Wed, May 11 2016, 5:36 PM
Quiet overnight session and AM hours
unfazed by sharp gains in oil prices
bonds rallied into the afternoon and especially after the auction
1...
Tue, May 10 2016, 9:51 AM
The past 2 sessions only look boring on the surface
Beneath the surface, bonds have been coping with a huge glut of corporate issuance
What does...
Tue, May 10 2016, 5:38 PM
Bonds weakened initially, but bounced back during European hours
Bonds also defied rising stock prices to hold their ground
Bonds also defied ...
Mon, May 9 2016, 10:09 AM
Limited data and events this week to motivate strong momentum
broader trend looking like a consolidation pattern
first major break out of that p...
Mon, May 9 2016, 5:25 PM
Bigger picture consolidation continues but no bounce toward higher rates yet
Quiet overnight session; bonds rally steadily through domestic close
...
Fri, May 6 2016, 8:31 AM
NFP used to be one of the only games in town when it came to market movement
That's decreasingly true
Even though it can still definitely have a...
Fri, May 6 2016, 6:29 PM
Bonds had an OK day overall, but MBS stuck it to Treasuries
NFP 160k vs 202k forecast. Nothing interesting re: wages
Fannie 3.0s ended 1 tick...
Thu, May 5 2016, 9:07 AM
Bonds haven't been moving directionally in the big picture
Unless that direction is "sideways"
Let's take a step back and observe "the triangle...
Thu, May 5 2016, 4:58 PM
Heavy corporate bond issuance added pressure in AM
After that, no more sellers left in bond markets
10yr yields pulled a 6bp reversal to end 3.3...
MBS Market Alerts
