Wed, May 4 2016, 9:56 AM
Bigger picture: bonds consolidating inside March/April range
Technicals all turning bullish, today is important confirmation
Data sensitivity is...
Wed, May 4 2016, 5:36 PM
Very little movement overnight across multiple asset classes
ADP helped bonds slightly out of the gate
Tradeflows and late-morning economic data...
Tue, May 3 2016, 10:02 AM
Bond markets threatened to bounce weaker yesterday
concern was that new month tradeflows were just the start of more selling
hope was that it ...
Tue, May 3 2016, 5:01 PM
Gains were intact from the overnight session
massive losses in European bank stocks set the tone
Yes, Australia cut rates, but it wasn't much of...
Mon, May 2 2016, 9:32 AM
Technicals were looking good late last week
But some risk that month-end trading was painting a rosy picture
we'll find out this week!
Las...
Mon, May 2 2016, 4:59 PM
Bonds had a chance to confirm the start of a new trend today
Instead, they stayed on last week's fence
Could be bad, could be nothing
ISM Pri...
Fri, Apr 29 2016, 8:31 AM
Bonds right on the edge of confirming positive shift
We need to hold ground today in order to confirm
Even then, we have to wonder about the "mo...
Fri, Apr 29 2016, 4:41 PM
European traders were month-end sellers, pushing rates higher overnight
US bond markets battled back during the domestic session
Treasuries were...
Thu, Apr 28 2016, 8:24 AM
Bond rally following yesterday's Fed brings trading levels right back to the top of the previous range
holding ground today with modest gains would...
Thu, Apr 28 2016, 5:17 PM
Bonds traded either side of unchanged early in the day
Little, if any response to GDP
Bigger move seen after the end of the auction cycle
Not...
Wed, Apr 27 2016, 9:08 AM
Fed has history of using off-cycle meetings to set stage for policy action
OK, so it has only happened one--maybe two--times.
Is now one of thos...
Wed, Apr 27 2016, 5:18 PM
Very very simple day
markets were anxious that Fed might hint at June hike
Fed did NOT hint at June hike
Markets were happy
The end
...
Wed, Apr 27 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Janu...
Tue, Apr 26 2016, 8:31 AM
Durable Goods at 830am and Consumer Confidence are bigger ticket reports than yesterday's New Home Sales
The econ data won't have the final word on...
Tue, Apr 26 2016, 5:18 PM
Weaker Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Didn't Help
Bonds continued slow, steady selling trend
10yr yields topped out at 1.94
Fannie 3.0...
Mon, Apr 25 2016, 9:22 AM
Lots of economic data on tap including some big names
Treasury auction cycle (2, 5, 7yr)
FOMC Announcement Wednesday (Bank of Japan Thursday)
...
Mon, Apr 25 2016, 5:34 PM
Active corporate bond issuance puts pressure on Treasuries
MBS only lose 2 ticks
lower oil prices were no help
European bond markets still ha...
Fri, Apr 22 2016, 9:46 AM
past few days = negative technical signals galore for bonds
3rd consecutive week of higher lows and higher highs for rates
momentum indicators s...
Fri, Apr 22 2016, 5:46 PM
Nothing notable happened today
Trading amounted to an inconsequential epilogue to an interesting story that ended yesterday
bonds were slightly ...
Thu, Apr 21 2016, 8:56 AM
ECB leaves all rates unchanged; Draghi press conference begins now
ECB typically saves the more meaningful communications for the press conferenc...
Thu, Apr 21 2016, 5:30 PM
Draghi repeats that ECB doesn't want to cut further or print more money
Bonds and stocks pouted about that
10yr yields stayed above important 1....
Wed, Apr 20 2016, 9:36 AM
Supportive, sideways trend has been intact, but under constant attack
The negative trend of "higher lows" collides with the supportive trend today ...
Wed, Apr 20 2016, 7:05 PM
10yr yields finally broke 1.80% ceiling, and moved quickly to break 1.84% after that
Big gains in oil definitely played a part, but technicals an...
Tue, Apr 19 2016, 9:23 AM
bond markets still holding the range, but pressure is increasing
momentum studies are close to confirming negative shift
Tradeflows , technic...
Tue, Apr 19 2016, 4:22 PM
Today could have been better and worse.
Bright note: 10yr yields still holding under 1.80, mortgage rates are unchanged.
Sour note: 10's bar...
Mon, Apr 18 2016, 10:13 AM
2 separate narratives this week: market movement and housing data
tall order for housing data to drive market movement, except in extreme cases
...
Mon, Apr 18 2016, 5:26 PM
Most of last week's trading pushed rates slightly higher (i.e. short positions)
Short positions were covered before the weekend, helping rates fall...
Fri, Apr 15 2016, 9:31 AM
One explanation for bonds' recently negative trend could have to do with stocks
Not a direct correlation, but big-picture developments could affe...
Thu, Apr 14 2016, 8:29 AM
Positive trend in bonds that began in mid March is over
a break above 1.80% in 10yr yields would reinforce creation of new negative trend
CPI ...
Thu, Apr 14 2016, 4:20 PM
European bond markets helped push Treasuries weaker overnight
10yr yields hovered near 1.80%, the upper end of the recent range
Once again, econ...
Wed, Apr 13 2016, 8:30 AM
The recent downtrend is broken
The slightly broader sideways range is now close to being broken
Retail Sales may decide the fate of the range
...
Wed, Apr 13 2016, 5:23 PM
Momentum was weaker into the morning
European bond gains helped Treasuries hold under supportive ceiling
Stocks kept arguing for bond weakness, ...
Tue, Apr 12 2016, 9:22 AM
What's a Bund and why does it matter? (Hint: the benchmark for European bond markets)
Bunds and Treasuries threatening to bounce to high side of...
Tue, Apr 12 2016, 5:39 PM
Stocks and oil still questionable as primary motivators for bonds
European bonds and Treasuries suffered a tradeflow/technical reversal
Stocks a...
Mon, Apr 11 2016, 9:10 AM
Week gets off to slow start with limited data and events on Mon
Tuesday brings several Fed speakers, but not much data
Data ramps up by Wed with...
Mon, Apr 11 2016, 4:21 PM
Bonds were weaker overnight and lost more ground early
intermediate range boundaries held (1.755 in 10yr yields) as a ceiling
Bonds came back q...
Fri, Apr 8 2016, 9:10 AM
Light data day in the springtime: trading may be more about housekeeping than making any new bets on big-picture momentum
Trend has been positive f...
Fri, Apr 8 2016, 4:51 PM
Treasuries were under pressure from a correction in European markets (stocks and bond yields higher) overnight
MBS and Treasuries opened noticeably...
Thu, Apr 7 2016, 9:23 AM
There's a lot of attention being paid to oil right now
There have been moments of correlation between oil and bond yields
How much of the relati...
Thu, Apr 7 2016, 5:30 PM
European stock weakness/bond strength ruled the day
Treasuries, stocks, oil, all followed Europe until Europe closed, then went their own ways
G...
Wed, Apr 6 2016, 9:22 AM
Bonds were weaker into the March 16th FOMC meeting, but that marked a turning point
It also marked a turning point for European bond markets, which...
Wed, Apr 6 2016, 4:58 PM
Bonds weaker WAY before Fed Minutes
Oil, stocks and European bonds hurt Treasuries overnight
Oil kept pressure on with 10:30am inventory data ...
Tue, Apr 5 2016, 9:13 AM
The past few days of consolidation had a bullish tilt
Meaning: when yields broke out of a narrowing pattern, it was slightly more likely to be a p...
Tue, Apr 5 2016, 5:28 PM
Not only have bonds confirmed the recent move back into "the range," they've kept going strong
10yr yields hit 1.72, down 4.2bps, Fannie 3.0s up to...
Mon, Apr 4 2016, 9:19 AM
Bonds continue to defy critics with 10yr yields in the 1.7's into Q2
We can't really say "it's stocks" anymore
Oil is still part of the motivati...
Mon, Apr 4 2016, 7:01 PM
MBS and Treasuries both relatively flat on the day; light volume too
Boston Fed's Rosengren struck a hawkish tone (headwind #1)
Corporate bond i...
Fri, Apr 1 2016, 8:30 AM
bonds have obviously been 'up to something' since Yellen's speech
it could be that traders are showing their hands early for the next momentum move...
Fri, Apr 1 2016, 6:48 PM
MBS and Treasuries both end nearly unchanged after some intraday volatility
10's traded a range of 1.762 to 1.814. Fannie 3.0s 102-17 to 102-24
...
Thu, Mar 31 2016, 9:46 AM
Month-end means bond traders are adjusting portfolios to match a published index
The index was a bit less friendly than expected yesterday, and bon...
Thu, Mar 31 2016, 5:37 PM
No NFP anxiety, markets are all about preparing for April
Traders think stocks will suffer and bonds will pick up the slack
Dovish Yellen helped...
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