Tue, May 24 2016, 5:37 PM
Bonds were weaker throughout European hours (3am to 1pm)
Stock prices moved significantly higher and were well-correlated with bond losses
10yr ...
Mon, May 23 2016, 9:43 AM
After 2012, low rates in US have followed Europe
Even then, US rates have set their own limits
Now we're bouncing along those limits again and '...
Mon, May 23 2016, 5:18 PM
The title says it all
Overnight session was calm
European bonds were weaker at the close, putting pressure on US bond markets
Bonds bounced b...
Fri, May 20 2016, 9:14 AM
It is the bigger picture, as opposed to day-to-day minutia that will drive trading momentum
Trading levels and technicals suggest an utterly indeci...
Fri, May 20 2016, 5:04 PM
One of the most anticlimactic days in recent memory
bonds did nothing other than shuffle through some incidental 'housekeeping' trades
yields cl...
Thu, May 19 2016, 8:53 AM
Yesterday was a wake-up call, forcing us to think about defense vs offense
Shorter term trends already under attack
longer term trends aren't to...
Thu, May 19 2016, 4:54 PM
Bonds undergo token correction after yesterday's rout
technicals remain precarious
Fed speeches were in focus, but turned out to be fairly non...
Wed, May 18 2016, 9:06 AM
Just looking at 10yr or MBS doesn't paint too much of a picture
But when we compare longer-term with shorter-term debt, things become clear
Bond...
Wed, May 18 2016, 5:02 PM
Anxiety was growing yesterday about the Fed Minutes surprising
Bonds weakened
The Fed Minutes surprised
Bonds weakened some more
This coul...
Tue, May 17 2016, 8:22 AM
"Bad" is a relative term, but momentum may be shifting
Today's trading will be pivotal in determining that
The stakes are not too high, for now ...
Tue, May 17 2016, 5:34 PM
2 things: tomorrow's FOMC Minutes and Today's Dell corporate bond
Both put pressure on bond markets
majority of weakness was in afternoon ...
Mon, May 16 2016, 9:03 AM
Bonds have stayed strong, despite apparent headwinds
Technicals suggest we're due for a bounce
Such a bounce could still be part of a broader, p...
Mon, May 16 2016, 5:20 PM
Bond markets began in slightly weaker territory and kept losing ground
Most of the losses were in by 10am as corporate issuance became the trade...
Fri, May 13 2016, 8:23 AM
10yr yields still consolidating in bigger picture.
"triangles" often throw head-fakes
Stocks' fate still unclear
Retail Sales is only big-...
Fri, May 13 2016, 5:49 PM
Modestly strong overnight session gave way to losses following Retail Sales data
Bonds never went too red and then gradually found footing
No ...
Thu, May 12 2016, 8:50 AM
1.72 has been more of a roadblock than any other level for 10yr yields
We're currently at risk of bouncing there
Today's data may not help, bu...
Thu, May 12 2016, 5:10 PM
bond markets took a hit overnight and never fully recovered
Yields topped out heading into the NYSE open and again after the auction
30yr auctio...
Wed, May 11 2016, 8:35 AM
Corporate issuance expected to continue
Treasury Auction cycle in full swing with 10's today and 30's tomorrow
Overseas auctions add to global s...
Wed, May 11 2016, 5:36 PM
Quiet overnight session and AM hours
unfazed by sharp gains in oil prices
bonds rallied into the afternoon and especially after the auction
1...
Tue, May 10 2016, 9:51 AM
The past 2 sessions only look boring on the surface
Beneath the surface, bonds have been coping with a huge glut of corporate issuance
What does...
Tue, May 10 2016, 5:38 PM
Bonds weakened initially, but bounced back during European hours
Bonds also defied rising stock prices to hold their ground
Bonds also defied ...
Mon, May 9 2016, 10:09 AM
Limited data and events this week to motivate strong momentum
broader trend looking like a consolidation pattern
first major break out of that p...
Mon, May 9 2016, 5:25 PM
Bigger picture consolidation continues but no bounce toward higher rates yet
Quiet overnight session; bonds rally steadily through domestic close
...
Fri, May 6 2016, 8:31 AM
NFP used to be one of the only games in town when it came to market movement
That's decreasingly true
Even though it can still definitely have a...
Fri, May 6 2016, 6:29 PM
Bonds had an OK day overall, but MBS stuck it to Treasuries
NFP 160k vs 202k forecast. Nothing interesting re: wages
Fannie 3.0s ended 1 tick...
Thu, May 5 2016, 9:07 AM
Bonds haven't been moving directionally in the big picture
Unless that direction is "sideways"
Let's take a step back and observe "the triangle...
Thu, May 5 2016, 4:58 PM
Heavy corporate bond issuance added pressure in AM
After that, no more sellers left in bond markets
10yr yields pulled a 6bp reversal to end 3.3...
Wed, May 4 2016, 9:56 AM
Bigger picture: bonds consolidating inside March/April range
Technicals all turning bullish, today is important confirmation
Data sensitivity is...
Wed, May 4 2016, 5:36 PM
Very little movement overnight across multiple asset classes
ADP helped bonds slightly out of the gate
Tradeflows and late-morning economic data...
Tue, May 3 2016, 10:02 AM
Bond markets threatened to bounce weaker yesterday
concern was that new month tradeflows were just the start of more selling
hope was that it ...
Tue, May 3 2016, 5:01 PM
Gains were intact from the overnight session
massive losses in European bank stocks set the tone
Yes, Australia cut rates, but it wasn't much of...
Mon, May 2 2016, 9:32 AM
Technicals were looking good late last week
But some risk that month-end trading was painting a rosy picture
we'll find out this week!
Las...
Mon, May 2 2016, 4:59 PM
Bonds had a chance to confirm the start of a new trend today
Instead, they stayed on last week's fence
Could be bad, could be nothing
ISM Pri...
Fri, Apr 29 2016, 8:31 AM
Bonds right on the edge of confirming positive shift
We need to hold ground today in order to confirm
Even then, we have to wonder about the "mo...
Fri, Apr 29 2016, 4:41 PM
European traders were month-end sellers, pushing rates higher overnight
US bond markets battled back during the domestic session
Treasuries were...
Thu, Apr 28 2016, 8:24 AM
Bond rally following yesterday's Fed brings trading levels right back to the top of the previous range
holding ground today with modest gains would...
Thu, Apr 28 2016, 5:17 PM
Bonds traded either side of unchanged early in the day
Little, if any response to GDP
Bigger move seen after the end of the auction cycle
Not...
Wed, Apr 27 2016, 9:08 AM
Fed has history of using off-cycle meetings to set stage for policy action
OK, so it has only happened one--maybe two--times.
Is now one of thos...
Wed, Apr 27 2016, 5:18 PM
Very very simple day
markets were anxious that Fed might hint at June hike
Fed did NOT hint at June hike
Markets were happy
The end
...
Wed, Apr 27 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Janu...
Tue, Apr 26 2016, 8:31 AM
Durable Goods at 830am and Consumer Confidence are bigger ticket reports than yesterday's New Home Sales
The econ data won't have the final word on...
Tue, Apr 26 2016, 5:18 PM
Weaker Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Didn't Help
Bonds continued slow, steady selling trend
10yr yields topped out at 1.94
Fannie 3.0...
Mon, Apr 25 2016, 9:22 AM
Lots of economic data on tap including some big names
Treasury auction cycle (2, 5, 7yr)
FOMC Announcement Wednesday (Bank of Japan Thursday)
...
Mon, Apr 25 2016, 5:34 PM
Active corporate bond issuance puts pressure on Treasuries
MBS only lose 2 ticks
lower oil prices were no help
European bond markets still ha...
Fri, Apr 22 2016, 9:46 AM
past few days = negative technical signals galore for bonds
3rd consecutive week of higher lows and higher highs for rates
momentum indicators s...
Fri, Apr 22 2016, 5:46 PM
Nothing notable happened today
Trading amounted to an inconsequential epilogue to an interesting story that ended yesterday
bonds were slightly ...
Thu, Apr 21 2016, 8:56 AM
ECB leaves all rates unchanged; Draghi press conference begins now
ECB typically saves the more meaningful communications for the press conferenc...
Thu, Apr 21 2016, 5:30 PM
Draghi repeats that ECB doesn't want to cut further or print more money
Bonds and stocks pouted about that
10yr yields stayed above important 1....
Wed, Apr 20 2016, 9:36 AM
Supportive, sideways trend has been intact, but under constant attack
The negative trend of "higher lows" collides with the supportive trend today ...
Wed, Apr 20 2016, 7:05 PM
10yr yields finally broke 1.80% ceiling, and moved quickly to break 1.84% after that
Big gains in oil definitely played a part, but technicals an...
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