Tue, Oct 13 2015, 5:30 PM
Heading into 3-day weekends, it's not uncommon for investors to move to the sidelines by selling some of their holdings with the intention of getting ...
Tue, Oct 13 2015, 1:56 PM
The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow but positive start for bond markets. The early overnight trading wholly confirms our "move to the sidel...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 7:33 AM
You would think that after years of working in the same office that market participants would know how to find their way to the door. Yet strangely e...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 6:32 PM
After trending decisively higher during almost every hour since hitting bottom last Friday, stocks and bond yields leveled off today. Perhaps it's ...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 2:15 PM
I reserve the right for this "MBS MID-DAY" to also be the "MBS RECAP" as I don't expect much to happen in the rest of the trading day. It seems fairl...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 7:32 AM
Any deep hypothetical analysis of recent bond market behavior requires a caveat about volume and volatility . Namely, we haven't had any of either o...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 5:40 PM
The overnight session was extra quiet for bond markets, with no meaningful movements until after 8am. In hindsight, uneventful was good as the recent...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 1:10 PM
Bonds continue following the broader global correction leading back from the stock market weakness at the end of September. This has been a classic ...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 12:55 PM
Domestic bond markets continue to be more-or-less glued to stocks . Treasuries began flat in the overnight session, but yields soon began rising as ...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 8:42 AM
Every so often, amid the multitude of relatively vague and more complex technical indicators, bond markets just 'give us the answer.' Granted, the an...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 5:36 PM
In yet another installment of "the headline is the recap," today's trading session was largely uneventful apart from the moderate weakness carried ove...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 12:56 PM
Overnight trading was inconsequential for domestic bond markets with both Treasuries and MBS hitting New York hours very close to 'unchanged.' Asian ...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 7:33 AM
That disturbance you might have felt in the force--that's the high-conviction shift in both stocks and bonds. Whereas both had been defying the conse...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 4:57 PM
Bond markets came into the domestic session roughly unchanged, but soon found themselves under pressure. Before 9am, concerns over the day's corporat...
Mon, Oct 5 2015, 7:33 AM
Friday's NFP reaction was fun, and then perhaps a bit painful. The data itself was abhorrent--coming in weaker in every imaginable way and without an...
Mon, Oct 5 2015, 5:06 PM
Here it is the end of Monday and markets are still stuck on the same old thoughts and strategies that existed last week even before the NFP release. ...
Mon, Oct 5 2015, 1:05 PM
For lack of a better way to explain it, Friday's post-NFP rally was like a final, glorious charge into enemy territory. Bond markets had already push...
Fri, Oct 2 2015, 12:05 PM
If you haven't heard by now, today's main event--Nonfarm Payrolls, or officially, 'The Employment Situation'--was significantly weaker than expected...
Fri, Oct 2 2015, 7:33 AM
By all rights, yesterday was the day that should have seen domestic bond markets consolidate recent gains and take a breather ahead of this week's NFP...
Fri, Oct 2 2015, 7:05 PM
Bond markets experienced a quintessentially volatile reaction to a classic example of a "big miss" in the NFP data . As we've discussed several time...
Thu, Oct 1 2015, 4:40 PM
The headline is the recap today. If an hour of the day ended with an "AM," it was good for bond markets today. The only exception would be the midni...
Thu, Oct 1 2015, 1:13 PM
Treasury yields and equities began the overnight session moving higher after stronger manufacturing data in China. Treasuries managed to hold their g...
Wed, Sep 30 2015, 10:54 PM
Month/quarter-end buying was an important part of this week's strength through Wednesday. It served as sort of a constant, mildly positive force helpi...
Wed, Sep 30 2015, 7:33 AM
Bond markets are either going sideways in the bigger picture or they are rallying. To be sure, in the shorter term, they have definitely been rallyin...
Wed, Sep 30 2015, 5:21 PM
In day-over-day terms, the 1-2bps gain in 10yr yields and the 3-5 ticks improvement in MBS prices don't seem overly impressive. But if we consider th...
Wed, Sep 30 2015, 1:13 PM
The overnight session began with bond markets moving into weaker territory against the backdrop of a recovery in equities. There was clearly a lot of...
Tue, Sep 29 2015, 7:32 AM
A month ago today, we were hoping that the ferocious sell-off in bond markets was merely a correction to the ferocious rally that followed the Chine...
Tue, Sep 29 2015, 5:57 PM
It was a volatile, but positive day for bond markets with 10yr yields closing well outside the recent range at 2.06. Fannie 3.5s gained 8 ticks to en...
Tue, Sep 29 2015, 1:36 PM
The stock lever is VERY well-connected recently. That means, at any given moment, if equities are moving higher, bond yields tend to be doing the s...
Mon, Sep 28 2015, 12:20 PM
After modest overnight gains, bonds had been pulling back in the early part of the domestic session. Treasuries and MBS were both nearly back to unch...
Mon, Sep 28 2015, 7:33 AM
Few weeks are as replete with potential sources of market movement as this one. It's a good thing too because markets--especially bond markets--sudde...
Mon, Sep 28 2015, 5:23 PM
After a bit of an indecisive start that saw bond markets pull back toward 'unchanged' this morning, stocks stole the show and dragged everyone lower. ...
Fri, Sep 25 2015, 11:44 AM
Bond markets were weaker in the overnight session, following Yellen's weird speech after the close yesterday. I wouldn't have thought Yellen would de...
Fri, Sep 25 2015, 7:33 AM
What's up with this? Wasn't the Fed meeting last week supposed to bring some clarity to the long-suffering sideways trend that had been mostly inta...
Fri, Sep 25 2015, 5:14 PM
Bond markets were sharply sideways today, especially MBS. That said, the sideways trading was only seen during the domestic session. Before that, ...
Thu, Sep 24 2015, 12:43 PM
Bond markets pressed into their strongest territory since the late August flight-to-safety this morning. 10yr yields made it as low as 2.081 before p...
Thu, Sep 24 2015, 7:32 AM
So far this week, we've really only had one major piece of economic data in the form of Existing Home Sales on Monday. Today we'll have three such re...
Thu, Sep 24 2015, 5:24 PM
Bond market movement over the past few days certainly isn't ALL about the VW news, but I've reluctantly come to accept just how much of a role it play...
Wed, Sep 23 2015, 12:47 PM
Bond markets began the overnight session in fine shape. Global markets were shedding risk after weaker Chinese manufacturing data. But the gains w...
Wed, Sep 23 2015, 7:32 AM
Far too much is made of the connection between stocks and bonds. So let's make some more of it, shall we?
Seriously though, leaning on this 'stoc...
Wed, Sep 23 2015, 4:37 PM
During all but the first few hours of the overnight session, US bond markets were under pressure today. It wasn't too terrible though. The initial m...
Tue, Sep 22 2015, 7:33 AM
To be sure, with mortgage rates where they are, 'sideways' isn't necessarily such a bad thing. From a market-watching perspective, however, we're qui...
Tue, Sep 22 2015, 4:35 PM
European market levels and the global market considerations inspired by news out of Europe served as the driving forces behind much of today's bond ...
Tue, Sep 22 2015, 1:35 PM
The overnight momentum, fueled by global risk-aversion, has only gathered steam in the domestic session. After the first half of the day, Treasuries ...
Mon, Sep 21 2015, 7:33 AM
With all the build-up to last week's FOMC Announcement, and the fairly fast-paced market movement that followed, what will we do now for excitement? ...
Mon, Sep 21 2015, 5:49 PM
If it seems like corporate debt has been an increasingly hot topic for me/us over the past few years, that's because it has been. 2014 was a record ...
Mon, Sep 21 2015, 2:21 PM
It was a rough morning for bond markets as Treasuries have really only moved in one direction since opening in Europe . Losses were quite livable dur...
Fri, Sep 18 2015, 10:47 AM
If we wanted to do as little as possible to overcomplicate yesterday's Fed news, we might focus on the fact that the Fed took their greatest strides y...
Fri, Sep 18 2015, 7:32 AM
What just happened?
The Fed did some justice to the notion that they would talk tougher about an October or December rate hike if they didn't hike...
Fri, Sep 18 2015, 5:42 PM
Today gave markets a chance to continue reflecting on the realities of yesterday's FOMC Announcement. The Fed broke new ground by including the globa...
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