Fri, Oct 23 2015, 1:47 PM
Bond markets are in weaker territory today, more than erasing all of yesterday's gains and taking 10yr yields to the highest levels in 2 weeks. The ...
Thu, Oct 22 2015, 12:22 PM
As expected, this morning's European Central Bank (ECB) Announcement has been a source of volatility for markets, but its effects have varied widely...
Thu, Oct 22 2015, 7:33 AM
Over the past two days, we saw a surprisingly strong move higher in European bond yields that spilled over to US bond markets. The effects were mute...
Thu, Oct 22 2015, 5:07 PM
Stocks and bonds continued on their divergent paths today thanks to the European Central Bank. While there had been some speculation that the ECB w...
Wed, Oct 21 2015, 8:48 AM
As you've likely picked up on, this week has served primarily as a chance for markets to do whatever they need to do ahead of next week's FOMC announc...
Wed, Oct 21 2015, 4:30 PM
Nothing has changed from the mid-day update, so today's recap will largely be an amplification of those themes.
Bond markets were stronger overni...
Wed, Oct 21 2015, 1:39 PM
Yesterday marked the first legitimate swoon in US bond markets in more than a week. The 3 days prior were especially flat, with 10yr yields ending th...
Tue, Oct 20 2015, 12:56 PM
Bond markets lost ground overnight, moving resolutely higher in yield during the European session. The Treasury weakness is notable in that it occu...
Tue, Oct 20 2015, 7:33 AM
This probably won't be the last time I mention it before next Wednesday, but next Wednesday is the FOMC Announcement. That's the one where Yellen sai...
Tue, Oct 20 2015, 5:36 PM
"Move along... Nothing to see here..." Despite the 4.6 bp increase in 10yr yields and the quarter point drop in MBS Prices, today was actually rathe...
Mon, Oct 19 2015, 7:33 AM
I remember when I used to think that certain super smart, well-connected, high-powered traders actually knew where rates would be heading with better ...
Mon, Oct 19 2015, 5:00 PM
Time for another installment of "the headline is the recap." Bond markets sold-off a bit at noon and came back to end just barely inside positive ter...
Mon, Oct 19 2015, 2:15 PM
Bond markets were weaker during the overnight session--at least at first. The easiest scapegoat for that weakness was the less-than-awful GDP print ...
Fri, Oct 16 2015, 7:51 AM
The October Fed meeting is still more than a week away, but it already looks like bond markets are preparing for it. Preparation for big events often...
Fri, Oct 16 2015, 7:20 PM
Stocks put in another day of gains today. This is important for 2 reasons. First, they--and by "they," I mean the S&P and S&P futures, which is the ...
Fri, Oct 16 2015, 2:27 PM
Friday's trading has been slightly less exciting and has cut a much narrower range than Thursday's trading. Markets might as well not even be open ....
Thu, Oct 15 2015, 7:54 PM
MBS and Treasury yields moved into weaker territory after the 8:30am release of CPI and Jobless Claims this morning. One can only surmise that invest...
Thu, Oct 15 2015, 7:33 AM
Nothing like a good tragedy for lighthearted mid-week viewing as far as bond markets are concerned. Various global economies' data is growing ever we...
Thu, Oct 15 2015, 1:34 PM
The overnight session began with markets showing their collective hand as stock prices and bond yields moved higher together. It's as if the memo wen...
Wed, Oct 14 2015, 8:46 AM
Bond markets love negative economic data--especially when the Fed is ostensibly waiting for domestic economic data to merely hold steady in order to j...
Wed, Oct 14 2015, 7:13 PM
One year ago today, things "got real" for bond markets as they leaped into significantly stronger territory, ultimately ending the day at the best clo...
Wed, Oct 14 2015, 2:34 PM
Even a slew of corporate bond issuance isn't holding back bond markets from another strong move lower in yield today. In fact, in a break from the ...
Tue, Oct 13 2015, 9:15 AM
The surprisingly weak NFP at the beginning of October helped bond markets extend an already strong rally. The strength of the post-NFP rally was a su...
Tue, Oct 13 2015, 5:30 PM
Heading into 3-day weekends, it's not uncommon for investors to move to the sidelines by selling some of their holdings with the intention of getting ...
Tue, Oct 13 2015, 1:56 PM
The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow but positive start for bond markets. The early overnight trading wholly confirms our "move to the sidel...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 7:33 AM
You would think that after years of working in the same office that market participants would know how to find their way to the door. Yet strangely e...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 6:32 PM
After trending decisively higher during almost every hour since hitting bottom last Friday, stocks and bond yields leveled off today. Perhaps it's ...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 2:15 PM
I reserve the right for this "MBS MID-DAY" to also be the "MBS RECAP" as I don't expect much to happen in the rest of the trading day. It seems fairl...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 7:32 AM
Any deep hypothetical analysis of recent bond market behavior requires a caveat about volume and volatility . Namely, we haven't had any of either o...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 5:40 PM
The overnight session was extra quiet for bond markets, with no meaningful movements until after 8am. In hindsight, uneventful was good as the recent...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 1:10 PM
Bonds continue following the broader global correction leading back from the stock market weakness at the end of September. This has been a classic ...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 12:55 PM
Domestic bond markets continue to be more-or-less glued to stocks . Treasuries began flat in the overnight session, but yields soon began rising as ...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 8:42 AM
Every so often, amid the multitude of relatively vague and more complex technical indicators, bond markets just 'give us the answer.' Granted, the an...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 5:36 PM
In yet another installment of "the headline is the recap," today's trading session was largely uneventful apart from the moderate weakness carried ove...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 12:56 PM
Overnight trading was inconsequential for domestic bond markets with both Treasuries and MBS hitting New York hours very close to 'unchanged.' Asian ...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 7:33 AM
That disturbance you might have felt in the force--that's the high-conviction shift in both stocks and bonds. Whereas both had been defying the conse...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 4:57 PM
Bond markets came into the domestic session roughly unchanged, but soon found themselves under pressure. Before 9am, concerns over the day's corporat...
Mon, Oct 5 2015, 7:33 AM
Friday's NFP reaction was fun, and then perhaps a bit painful. The data itself was abhorrent--coming in weaker in every imaginable way and without an...
Mon, Oct 5 2015, 5:06 PM
Here it is the end of Monday and markets are still stuck on the same old thoughts and strategies that existed last week even before the NFP release. ...
Mon, Oct 5 2015, 1:05 PM
For lack of a better way to explain it, Friday's post-NFP rally was like a final, glorious charge into enemy territory. Bond markets had already push...
Fri, Oct 2 2015, 12:05 PM
If you haven't heard by now, today's main event--Nonfarm Payrolls, or officially, 'The Employment Situation'--was significantly weaker than expected...
Fri, Oct 2 2015, 7:33 AM
By all rights, yesterday was the day that should have seen domestic bond markets consolidate recent gains and take a breather ahead of this week's NFP...
Fri, Oct 2 2015, 7:05 PM
Bond markets experienced a quintessentially volatile reaction to a classic example of a "big miss" in the NFP data . As we've discussed several time...
Thu, Oct 1 2015, 4:40 PM
The headline is the recap today. If an hour of the day ended with an "AM," it was good for bond markets today. The only exception would be the midni...
Thu, Oct 1 2015, 1:13 PM
Treasury yields and equities began the overnight session moving higher after stronger manufacturing data in China. Treasuries managed to hold their g...
Wed, Sep 30 2015, 10:54 PM
Month/quarter-end buying was an important part of this week's strength through Wednesday. It served as sort of a constant, mildly positive force helpi...
Wed, Sep 30 2015, 7:33 AM
Bond markets are either going sideways in the bigger picture or they are rallying. To be sure, in the shorter term, they have definitely been rallyin...
Wed, Sep 30 2015, 5:21 PM
In day-over-day terms, the 1-2bps gain in 10yr yields and the 3-5 ticks improvement in MBS prices don't seem overly impressive. But if we consider th...
Wed, Sep 30 2015, 1:13 PM
The overnight session began with bond markets moving into weaker territory against the backdrop of a recovery in equities. There was clearly a lot of...
Tue, Sep 29 2015, 7:32 AM
A month ago today, we were hoping that the ferocious sell-off in bond markets was merely a correction to the ferocious rally that followed the Chine...
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