Mon, Mar 14 2016, 5:15 PM
Calm Monday, for the most part
Bonds probably took cues from oil prices
Bonds bounced when oil bounced (around noon)
Net effect was modest ga...
Fri, Mar 11 2016, 8:48 AM
Bond markets have been partying pretty hard so far in 2016, though the party has been dying down since mid February . That process began with st...
Fri, Mar 11 2016, 5:59 PM
Pointless, confused trading day for multiple markets
Bonds struggled sideways at first, then broke into weaker territory for no apparent reason
...
Thu, Mar 10 2016, 8:38 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) broke with tradition to some extent, as it announced several policy changes in the 7:45am press release. This relea...
Thu, Mar 10 2016, 5:26 PM
ECB unveils bigger-than-expected package of rate cuts and QE purchases
Then Draghi says the magic words (in a nutshell: no more rate cuts)
Stock...
Wed, Mar 9 2016, 8:58 AM
Yesterday's fears: that the gains were just a byproduct of trading positions
Particularly, bond bears were covering bets on higher rates
Trader...
Tue, Mar 8 2016, 8:52 AM
The past week has been unpleasant for bond markets, to say the least. Even before that, the strong bounce off the long-term lows in mid-February fo...
Tue, Mar 8 2016, 5:33 PM
Treasuries much stronger overnight, following weak Chinese trade data, strong Japanese bond market gains, and decent European bond market gains
Bon...
Mon, Mar 7 2016, 8:41 AM
Bond markets obviously had a pretty rough go of it last week, having broken out of the sideways trend that followed early February's long-term lows. ...
Mon, Mar 7 2016, 5:42 PM
Big rally in oil brings stocks back up and keeps pressure on bonds
Corporate debt supply also hurt Treasuries specifically, but earlier in the day ...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 8:23 AM
"Stop me if you've heard this one before. There's this epic long-term inflection point defined by 10yr yield levels 1.84-1.86. It stretches back to 2...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 5:53 PM
Jobs report was good, mostly (242k vs 190k forecast, but some internal weakness)
10yr yields breaking 1.84 support is bad
10yr yields holding un...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 8:31 AM
Let's not overcomplicate things too much when it comes to the 2016 bond market rally. In fact, let's move in the other direction for a moment and con...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 5:28 PM
Bonds slightly weaker overnight; low volume; lack of inspiration
Domestic trading stayed very flat until 11:20am
Bonds rallied sharply but bri...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 7:31 AM
We're getting into some tricky territory with respect to market behavior and predicting the future. 2016 has been fairly unidimensional so far. B...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 5:40 PM
Treasuries flat overnight, despite various cues in other markets
Bonds move weaker following ADP data, but damage immediately contained
Rest of ...
Tue, Mar 1 2016, 7:31 AM
Whether you fancy a tug-o-war analogy, or perhaps even a good old case of dueling banjos, US bond markets have been in the middle of a relative batt...
Tue, Mar 1 2016, 5:44 PM
Stock rally hurts bonds
Even before that, corporate issuance added pressure
New March trading position-taking (and ultimately, profit-taking and...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 9:12 AM
The relationship between short and long term yields is an important indicator for bond markets and the broader economy. 10yr yields are almost alwa...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 5:41 PM
It was a tremendously calm day for bond markets. In fact, 10yr yields held a range of 1.73 to 1.768--the narrowest of the entire year . Still, the ...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 8:30 AM
Stocks and oil have had a big impact on bonds, but they're not the only story
Central bank rhetoric has been helping Treasuries hold ground when st...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 7:41 PM
After yesterday's strong performance it would have been nice to at least hold those gains. If that had happened, the bigger picture would look decid...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 7:34 AM
Over the past few days, we've seen bigger-than-normal intraday swings in bond markets. The day began with one trend in force only to end with tradi...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 5:32 PM
Data overlooked as bonds react to stocks/oil early
Bonds then ignore stock/oil rally later in the day and hold ground at stronger levels
Could ...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 9:09 AM
10's have been bouncing at 1.71, secretly, overnight
It's breaking this morning and the next battle is clearly implied by early February trading pa...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 5:44 PM
Bonds start strong. Good MBS gains and a few positive reprices early
Everything went south as oil jumped off lows
Stocks jumped even higher and...
Tue, Feb 23 2016, 8:52 AM
Bond markets have been slightly weaker over the past few days, but overall, still arguably trading sideways inside a narrow range. Looked at in the m...
Tue, Feb 23 2016, 5:12 PM
Sad start, but happy ending for bond markets
"Tradeflows" (the trading cues that remain after we take away any overt cues like economic data, headl...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 9:04 AM
If you're just tuning in to 2016's bond market trends, it's been a good year so far. 10yr yields began around 2.30 and fell as low as 1.53 for a f...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 5:09 PM
Modest losses for Treasuries and MBS by the close
Should have been worse judging by stock/oil gains
Corporate bond supply was big--also typical...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 7:33 AM
I was hyperactively remarking to a mentor back in the day about how things were happening in markets almost exactly as I thought they would. I was ex...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 5:25 PM
Today was a fine day for bond markets. There were no significant gains or losses by the closing bell, and indeed no real drama in between. Treasur...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:39 AM
Rates fight to hold under important long-term ceiling (marked by 1.84% in 10yr yields)
Assessing possibility that last week was a long-term bounce ...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:03 PM
Bonds unchanged overnight, then follow German Bunds toward lower yields mid-morning
Oil Inventory data hit oil prices and stocks, thus lubricating ...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 8:38 AM
Technical analysis refers to attempts to understand and predict financial market behavior based solely on financial markets themselves. Specifically,...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 5:47 PM
Bond markets began the overnight session in fine shape, but soon succumbed to a steamroller of equity market positivity in the European session. Ri...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 8:15 AM
The new, holiday-shortened week begins in much the same fashion as the previous week ended: with bond markets considering whether they are under press...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 5:23 PM
When you have a day as weak as last Friday was, the most informative subsequent trading session is one that is either similarly weak or strongly posit...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 9:43 AM
As we all know, the MBS market is personified by a big green dragon . So far in 2016, the dragon has been breathing plenty of fire. Less publicize...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 4:10 PM
Day's like today can't hep but give the average market watcher a bit of a sinking feeling . Was that it? Was yesterday's visit to the lowest yields...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 7:34 AM
Stocks and bond yields ignited a fiery romance in 2016, not letting each other out of sight for almost the entire month of January. That is to say,...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 6:56 PM
Bond markets came thundering in to the domestic trading session today, largely following equally thunderous moves in equities and European stock/bon...
Wed, Feb 10 2016, 7:34 AM
Who has the mic? Who's wielding the pen? Whose opinion are you digesting as you build your sense of what "they" think is going to happen? If you're...
Wed, Feb 10 2016, 5:17 PM
To be fair to Fed Chair Yellen, it was too much to ask of her to concoct some secret combination of words that would magically help stem the tide of r...
Tue, Feb 9 2016, 7:34 AM
"It's the middle of the night on February 8-9th 2016, and 10yr yields are trading in the mid 1's."
That's not a phrase many people thought they'd ...
Tue, Feb 9 2016, 4:57 PM
Stock prices and bond yields closed at their lowest levels in more than a year yesterday. Today was largely spent consolidating that move. With Ch...
Mon, Feb 8 2016, 7:34 AM
Depending on your point of view, this could end up being the most interesting week of the year for bond markets. If that turns out to be the case, ...
Mon, Feb 8 2016, 5:43 PM
Forget oil--mostly. There's a new bad boy in town over the weekend, and he's making just the sort of mess that Treasuries and MBS like to see. To ...
Fri, Feb 5 2016, 8:25 AM
First thing's first: NFP always reserves the right to move markets, even on occasions when it arguably shouldn't matter. Over the years, so many trad...
Fri, Feb 5 2016, 5:54 PM
Markets were confused by today's jobs data--at least bond markets were. The 151k vs 190k miss on headline NFP was ostensibly offset by the improvem...
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