Tue, Feb 23 2016, 5:12 PM
Sad start, but happy ending for bond markets
"Tradeflows" (the trading cues that remain after we take away any overt cues like economic data, headl...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 9:04 AM
If you're just tuning in to 2016's bond market trends, it's been a good year so far. 10yr yields began around 2.30 and fell as low as 1.53 for a f...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 5:09 PM
Modest losses for Treasuries and MBS by the close
Should have been worse judging by stock/oil gains
Corporate bond supply was big--also typical...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 7:33 AM
I was hyperactively remarking to a mentor back in the day about how things were happening in markets almost exactly as I thought they would. I was ex...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 5:25 PM
Today was a fine day for bond markets. There were no significant gains or losses by the closing bell, and indeed no real drama in between. Treasur...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:39 AM
Rates fight to hold under important long-term ceiling (marked by 1.84% in 10yr yields)
Assessing possibility that last week was a long-term bounce ...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:03 PM
Bonds unchanged overnight, then follow German Bunds toward lower yields mid-morning
Oil Inventory data hit oil prices and stocks, thus lubricating ...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 8:38 AM
Technical analysis refers to attempts to understand and predict financial market behavior based solely on financial markets themselves. Specifically,...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 5:47 PM
Bond markets began the overnight session in fine shape, but soon succumbed to a steamroller of equity market positivity in the European session. Ri...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 8:15 AM
The new, holiday-shortened week begins in much the same fashion as the previous week ended: with bond markets considering whether they are under press...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 5:23 PM
When you have a day as weak as last Friday was, the most informative subsequent trading session is one that is either similarly weak or strongly posit...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 9:43 AM
As we all know, the MBS market is personified by a big green dragon . So far in 2016, the dragon has been breathing plenty of fire. Less publicize...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 4:10 PM
Day's like today can't hep but give the average market watcher a bit of a sinking feeling . Was that it? Was yesterday's visit to the lowest yields...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 7:34 AM
Stocks and bond yields ignited a fiery romance in 2016, not letting each other out of sight for almost the entire month of January. That is to say,...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 6:56 PM
Bond markets came thundering in to the domestic trading session today, largely following equally thunderous moves in equities and European stock/bon...
Wed, Feb 10 2016, 7:34 AM
Who has the mic? Who's wielding the pen? Whose opinion are you digesting as you build your sense of what "they" think is going to happen? If you're...
Wed, Feb 10 2016, 5:17 PM
To be fair to Fed Chair Yellen, it was too much to ask of her to concoct some secret combination of words that would magically help stem the tide of r...
Tue, Feb 9 2016, 7:34 AM
"It's the middle of the night on February 8-9th 2016, and 10yr yields are trading in the mid 1's."
That's not a phrase many people thought they'd ...
Tue, Feb 9 2016, 4:57 PM
Stock prices and bond yields closed at their lowest levels in more than a year yesterday. Today was largely spent consolidating that move. With Ch...
Mon, Feb 8 2016, 7:34 AM
Depending on your point of view, this could end up being the most interesting week of the year for bond markets. If that turns out to be the case, ...
Mon, Feb 8 2016, 5:43 PM
Forget oil--mostly. There's a new bad boy in town over the weekend, and he's making just the sort of mess that Treasuries and MBS like to see. To ...
Fri, Feb 5 2016, 8:25 AM
First thing's first: NFP always reserves the right to move markets, even on occasions when it arguably shouldn't matter. Over the years, so many trad...
Fri, Feb 5 2016, 5:54 PM
Markets were confused by today's jobs data--at least bond markets were. The 151k vs 190k miss on headline NFP was ostensibly offset by the improvem...
Thu, Feb 4 2016, 8:20 AM
It used to be that the first Thursday of every month provided a fairly reliable chance of volatility . That was during the days when Europe was an e...
Thu, Feb 4 2016, 5:18 PM
Today was a so-called "inside day" for bond markets, meaning prices and yields remained INSIDE yesterday's range of prices and yields. Economic dat...
Wed, Feb 3 2016, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's morning notes laid out an ominous technical comparison to last January and we promptly proceeded to have the best rally of the year. Ther...
Wed, Feb 3 2016, 6:19 PM
Two days ago, we were able to refer to Monday as the best day of the year, as long as you forget about the Friday before it. Today is the new 'best ...
Tue, Feb 2 2016, 7:34 AM
When things have been unexpectedly as good as they have been for as long as they have been, one of the side-effects can be increased anxiety about the...
Tue, Feb 2 2016, 5:42 PM
Surprise! It's another mega-rally day. Depending on your yardstick, this is the 5th or 6th mega rally so far this year. Considering there have on...
Mon, Feb 1 2016, 7:33 AM
The weeks that contain the first Friday of any given month have a flavor all their own. Several of the month's most important pieces of economic da...
Mon, Feb 1 2016, 5:41 PM
In a way, today was the best sort of losing day for bond markets. If you factor out last Friday, today was the best trading day for bond markets in...
Fri, Jan 29 2016, 7:33 AM
You can't step 2 feet out your front door in 2016 without being pelted by news regarding the close correlation between stocks, bonds and oil. Heck, I...
Fri, Jan 29 2016, 5:11 PM
For the end of any given day, bond markets closed at their best levels since April. If we look at only month-end closing levels, today was the best ...
Thu, Jan 28 2016, 8:26 AM
If we take the awesome part of 2016 for granted and simply focus on our most timely challenges, we find bond markets struggling to make any further im...
Thu, Jan 28 2016, 5:41 PM
Stocks gained a bit of ground today. Oil prices were significantly higher--building on a strong 3-day bounce. But on both accounts, bond markets d...
Wed, Jan 27 2016, 7:33 AM
Today brings one of those Fed policy announcements where we can already be reasonably sure of the outcome, but where the subtleties could still prov...
Wed, Jan 27 2016, 6:10 PM
Today's Fed announcement was decidedly more downbeat than the previous iteration and markets reacted accordingly. There was never any real chance t...
Wed, Jan 27 2016, 2:05 PM
(NOTE: removals are struck-through and additions are underlined)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October Dece...
Tue, Jan 26 2016, 8:17 AM
Last week ended with bond markets looking like they were at risk of bigger, longer-term bounce back toward higher rates. The catalyst was/is the "ris...
Tue, Jan 26 2016, 5:22 PM
Bond markets held their ground today, which is quite the accomplishment considering stocks rallied. Rates and stocks have been strongly correlated...
Mon, Jan 25 2016, 7:33 AM
This week has the potential to begin fairly slowly. Market participation will undoubtedly be affected on some level by the massive snow storm that h...
Mon, Jan 25 2016, 5:41 PM
If you don't live in the Northeast and if you don't read/watch the news, there was a big snow storm. In New York City, for instance, it was the 2nd ...
Fri, Jan 22 2016, 7:32 AM
Enquiring minds want to know... In fact, even inquiring minds are fairly curious as to whether or not the pleasantly surprising bond market rally wil...
Fri, Jan 22 2016, 6:24 PM
Bond markets continued to do the exact same thing they've been doing all year: follow stocks/oil. Today was the first day of the year that stocks h...
Thu, Jan 21 2016, 7:32 AM
Historically, any time we see the biggest bouts of selling in equities markets, a conversation about "safe-haven" assets is usually not far behind. ...
Thu, Jan 21 2016, 5:29 PM
Today was the 4th day of the year that stocks closed higher than they opened. In other, far from coincidental news, it was also the 4th day of the ...
Wed, Jan 20 2016, 7:32 AM
If you've been tuned in to any reasonable extent--and no one would blame you if you weren't--you're already well aware that Bonds have been on fire ...
Wed, Jan 20 2016, 5:36 PM
The S&P closed at its lowest level since April 2014 today and intraday prices were at their lowest levels since February 2014. If yesterday's $28/bar...
Tue, Jan 19 2016, 7:32 AM
Stocks and bond yields don't always follow each other, but their correlation is not only undeniable so far in 2016, it's been the most important bond ...
Tue, Jan 19 2016, 4:54 PM
For the 3rd time this year, the S&P avoided making new intraday lows, and for the 3rd time this year, mortgage rates moved higher. I am not a fan of ...
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