Thu, Sep 3 2015, 6:08 PM
Miraculously (and sarcastically) bond markets were little-changed overnight. The first cues for movement came from the ECB's press conference where D...
Thu, Sep 3 2015, 1:09 PM
We're now far enough into the final pre-NFP day of the week to safely observe yet another instance of range-bound zigging and zagging . In other wor...
Wed, Sep 2 2015, 11:22 AM
By coming in at 190k vs a median forecast of 201k, today's ADP Employment data essentially abstained from strong comment on Friday's NFP. Because of ...
Wed, Sep 2 2015, 8:13 AM
Let's consider some facts. Not only did most of August see rates converging on the same micro range as yesterday (discussed in Day Ahead ), but ther...
Wed, Sep 2 2015, 5:52 PM
Another swing and another miss for today's economic data. It had an opportunity to kick start what stands a good chance to be a fairly big move in mu...
Tue, Sep 1 2015, 12:07 PM
Bond markets started the overnight session in better shape , already bouncing back from yesterday's weak closing levels. Data in China and Japan hel...
Tue, Sep 1 2015, 8:50 AM
US bond markets have an increasingly clear plan heading into the first 2 weeks of September: trade a narrow, consolidating range, centered on well-t...
Tue, Sep 1 2015, 6:35 PM
Today was a classic "inside day," meaning that the entire range of trading took place inside yesterday's trading range. As far as domestic hours ar...
Mon, Aug 31 2015, 8:51 AM
Amid last week's glut of Fed speeches surrounding the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Vice Chair Fischer specifically called out "the next two weeks of da...
Mon, Aug 31 2015, 5:21 PM
Treasuries went out the 'in' door for the month of August, with today's 3pm levels matching the opening levels from August 3rd (1st trading day of the...
Mon, Aug 31 2015, 1:35 PM
The day started off well for domestic bond markets as weakness in Asia translated to some safe-haven demand for US Treasuries. At the start of the do...
Fri, Aug 28 2015, 8:21 AM
After rallying steadily for more than a month and after seeing that rally accelerate quickly into Monday afternoon, Treasuries and MBS underwent 2.5 d...
Fri, Aug 28 2015, 4:44 PM
I was writing reprice alerts and chatting with the MBS Live community during the time that I'd normally be writing the Mid-Day commentary. By the t...
Fri, Aug 28 2015, 1:15 PM
The very short version of a very long story is that bond markets are leveling-off within a range. Using the 10yr yield as a benchmark, that range...
Thu, Aug 27 2015, 11:29 AM
Much has been made recently of the surprising lack of response on the part of bond markets to the massive sell-off in stocks. That shoe is now on t...
Thu, Aug 27 2015, 7:32 AM
You'll see more and more of this in the coming days/weeks--the various iterations of "China dumping US Treasuries at an insane pace!" Oh no!
Wait...
Thu, Aug 27 2015, 4:44 PM
After two days of relatively brutal selling, bond markets finally opted for much less brutal selling. In fact, 10yr yields were in positive territo...
Wed, Aug 26 2015, 11:47 AM
Bigger-picture trading themes are still driving the bond market movement this week. Namely, bonds had been eager to consolidate more than a month of ...
Wed, Aug 26 2015, 7:33 AM
Recent volatility isn't just the product of illiquid summertime trading against the backdrop of surprising announcements from global central banks. M...
Wed, Aug 26 2015, 5:00 PM
Longer duration bonds got hit hard today. Case in point, 30yr bonds are up nearly 13bps while 5's are only up 6bps. The better performances in the...
Tue, Aug 25 2015, 11:45 AM
In financial markets, a flight-to-safety generally refers to investors moving out of riskier assets (like stocks, and certain commodities) and into sa...
Tue, Aug 25 2015, 7:32 AM
Given our focus on trends in mortgage rates, we often discuss lenders' intraday reprices. At the moment, however, there is an entirely different kin...
Tue, Aug 25 2015, 5:55 PM
Bond markets finally did what they've wanted to do for several sessions now: square up some of the trading positions from the recent rally. That ral...
Mon, Aug 24 2015, 11:40 AM
You know how that Monday morning alarm clock can be the most- well... 'alarming' of the week? It's not that different for the opening bells of variou...
Mon, Aug 24 2015, 7:33 AM
Global financial markets are in something of a freefall at the moment. It's not like a pure freefall, but more like one of those wing suit things fro...
Mon, Aug 24 2015, 5:35 PM
It'll be hard to miss today's news as it related to equities markets. Even the non-financial news will be talking about today's 588 point drop in the...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 12:21 PM
The rest of the global marketplace is harshing the mellow of US bond markets. Treasuries and MBS are wondering what all the fuss is about , having h...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 7:33 AM
The "Death Cross" will be back in the news soon if stocks have many more days like yesterday (that's when the 50-day moving average falls below the ...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 5:12 PM
About 10 days into July's bond market rally, I posed the question: What if 2015 doesn't turn out to be the big bounce ? It started out with the fo...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 7:33 AM
As we discussed in yesterday's close , The general message received from the FOMC Minutes is that the Fed is far more dependent on incoming data ...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 7:01 PM
It was a classic risk-off trade today, albeit with a certain level of exhaustion on the part of US bond markets. "Risk-off" means what it says: inv...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 1:21 PM
By the time yesterday's FOMC Minutes were out, European and Asian markets were already closed. As such, their overnight reaction was not too surprisi...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 12:59 PM
There have been some pretty decent swings in prices/yields this morning if we're basing our notions of volatility on more recent ranges. For instance...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 7:37 PM
I'm not going to launch into a detailed assessment of every passage in today's FOMC Minutes. Instead, I'm going to talk about how the Fed has been ma...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 7:33 AM
FOMC Minutes today! Time to find out if the Fed even matters or if markets have just been consolidating for their own reasons. Granted, the Fed al...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 12:25 PM
Much like yesterday, today's economic data was far enough from consensus to move markets. Unlike yesterday, the movement was in an unfriendly direc...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 7:33 AM
It's a very interesting time for interest rates in the US. Once again, what had been broad consensus on the long-term direction of rates is turning o...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 5:34 PM
The fun thing about FOMC Minutes releases is that we can never be sure if they're going to cause drama for rates until we see how markets react. Whet...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 7:33 AM
"The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement ...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 5:58 PM
When we talk about "summertime volatility," we're NOT talking about the sorts of big day-to-day swings seen earlier this year. Instead, summertime ...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 1:01 PM
Overnight and early morning trading was as calm as summertime Mondays tend to be. The day's first data--Empire State Manufacturing--doesn't typically...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 12:21 PM
It's been an uncharacteristically volatile morning for bond markets considering the economic calendar and the day of the week. We've had PPI, Indus...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 7:32 AM
Surprisingly enough, this week's big, volatility-inducing event leaves US bond markets mostly where they were before the big volatility-inducing event...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 4:42 PM
MBS prices are cutting a beautiful (or ugly, in terms of the implication) "Z" on the chart today. Prices were higher to start the morning and moved...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 11:30 AM
So far, the trading day has gone as you would expect it to go if you agreed with the premise in the morning commentary . Namely, without Chinese c...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 7:33 AM
Chinese currency devaluation had quickly grabbed almost every available top news headline by yesterday evening. Yet while the rest of the world was...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 6:47 PM
The headline is the recap. There's not much more to it than that. Ever since China stepped in to stem the tide of currency weakness yesterday aftern...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 7:33 AM
Most of this morning's day ahead was written in a speculative manner on July 24th HERE . On that day, I closed with:
Despite all the Fed rhetoric...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 7:15 PM
Let's keep it simple tonight, because it really is pretty simple. It's all about China still--perhaps with an assist from a weak 10yr auction.
Chi...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 1:19 PM
Global markets' courtship phase with China's currency devaluation continued benefiting Treasuries overnight. While there was a slow, steady move back...
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