Mon, Aug 24 2015, 11:40 AM
You know how that Monday morning alarm clock can be the most- well... 'alarming' of the week? It's not that different for the opening bells of variou...
Mon, Aug 24 2015, 7:33 AM
Global financial markets are in something of a freefall at the moment. It's not like a pure freefall, but more like one of those wing suit things fro...
Mon, Aug 24 2015, 5:35 PM
It'll be hard to miss today's news as it related to equities markets. Even the non-financial news will be talking about today's 588 point drop in the...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 12:21 PM
The rest of the global marketplace is harshing the mellow of US bond markets. Treasuries and MBS are wondering what all the fuss is about , having h...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 7:33 AM
The "Death Cross" will be back in the news soon if stocks have many more days like yesterday (that's when the 50-day moving average falls below the ...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 5:12 PM
About 10 days into July's bond market rally, I posed the question: What if 2015 doesn't turn out to be the big bounce ? It started out with the fo...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 7:33 AM
As we discussed in yesterday's close , The general message received from the FOMC Minutes is that the Fed is far more dependent on incoming data ...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 7:01 PM
It was a classic risk-off trade today, albeit with a certain level of exhaustion on the part of US bond markets. "Risk-off" means what it says: inv...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 1:21 PM
By the time yesterday's FOMC Minutes were out, European and Asian markets were already closed. As such, their overnight reaction was not too surprisi...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 12:59 PM
There have been some pretty decent swings in prices/yields this morning if we're basing our notions of volatility on more recent ranges. For instance...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 7:37 PM
I'm not going to launch into a detailed assessment of every passage in today's FOMC Minutes. Instead, I'm going to talk about how the Fed has been ma...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 7:33 AM
FOMC Minutes today! Time to find out if the Fed even matters or if markets have just been consolidating for their own reasons. Granted, the Fed al...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 12:25 PM
Much like yesterday, today's economic data was far enough from consensus to move markets. Unlike yesterday, the movement was in an unfriendly direc...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 7:33 AM
It's a very interesting time for interest rates in the US. Once again, what had been broad consensus on the long-term direction of rates is turning o...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 5:34 PM
The fun thing about FOMC Minutes releases is that we can never be sure if they're going to cause drama for rates until we see how markets react. Whet...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 7:33 AM
"The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement ...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 5:58 PM
When we talk about "summertime volatility," we're NOT talking about the sorts of big day-to-day swings seen earlier this year. Instead, summertime ...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 1:01 PM
Overnight and early morning trading was as calm as summertime Mondays tend to be. The day's first data--Empire State Manufacturing--doesn't typically...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 12:21 PM
It's been an uncharacteristically volatile morning for bond markets considering the economic calendar and the day of the week. We've had PPI, Indus...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 7:32 AM
Surprisingly enough, this week's big, volatility-inducing event leaves US bond markets mostly where they were before the big volatility-inducing event...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 4:42 PM
MBS prices are cutting a beautiful (or ugly, in terms of the implication) "Z" on the chart today. Prices were higher to start the morning and moved...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 11:30 AM
So far, the trading day has gone as you would expect it to go if you agreed with the premise in the morning commentary . Namely, without Chinese c...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 7:33 AM
Chinese currency devaluation had quickly grabbed almost every available top news headline by yesterday evening. Yet while the rest of the world was...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 6:47 PM
The headline is the recap. There's not much more to it than that. Ever since China stepped in to stem the tide of currency weakness yesterday aftern...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 7:33 AM
Most of this morning's day ahead was written in a speculative manner on July 24th HERE . On that day, I closed with:
Despite all the Fed rhetoric...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 7:15 PM
Let's keep it simple tonight, because it really is pretty simple. It's all about China still--perhaps with an assist from a weak 10yr auction.
Chi...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 1:19 PM
Global markets' courtship phase with China's currency devaluation continued benefiting Treasuries overnight. While there was a slow, steady move back...
Tue, Aug 11 2015, 12:59 PM
Treasury yields are at their lowest--and MBS at their highest--levels since early June. For 10yr Treasuries specifically, it wouldn't take more than ...
Tue, Aug 11 2015, 7:33 AM
There are no significant economic reports on the calendar today, and the afternoon's 3yr Treasury auction is the lease relevant of the week. Against ...
Tue, Aug 11 2015, 5:57 PM
The Asian, European, and North American trading sessions were all dominated by news that China would devalue its currency. There's much more to tha...
Mon, Aug 10 2015, 8:21 AM
There's no question that things have been going well for bond markets recently--at least for the parts of the bond markets that we care about. The lo...
Mon, Aug 10 2015, 5:37 PM
Today's first significant source of inspiration for bond markets came in the form of comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer. While he stuck to the same...
Mon, Aug 10 2015, 1:08 PM
Today has been all about yield curve steepening . That means that longer-lasting bonds have been doing worse than shorter term bonds. For instance,...
Fri, Aug 7 2015, 7:33 AM
NFP day is fun. It's one of those days where things can change so much and so quickly in its immediate wake, that it really doesn't make much sense ...
Fri, Aug 7 2015, 6:49 PM
Today's almost perfectly flat (vs last month and expectations) NFP provided a perfect opportunity to see what markets had been afraid of and/or hopefu...
Thu, Aug 6 2015, 10:52 AM
We expected to see some sort of consolidation of the late July bond rally this week. That's a fancy way of saying that markets would probably level-...
Thu, Aug 6 2015, 9:39 PM
It was quite a nice pre-NFP Thursday for bond markets. Trading was uneventful in our favorite sort of way where the gains begin early and losses ne...
Thu, Aug 6 2015, 7:33 AM
The Wednesday before NFP always has at least the ADP numbers to provide volatility potential. It also frequently has ISM Services data as was the cas...
Wed, Aug 5 2015, 11:40 AM
It looks like the nail is in the coffin for the pre-NFP rally potential. There was some small chance today (emphasis on 'small') that economic data...
Wed, Aug 5 2015, 7:33 AM
To be fair to the Wednesdays before NFP, sometimes they get serious and sometimes they don't. As always, the determining factor is whether there is e...
Wed, Aug 5 2015, 6:21 PM
Yesterday afternoon's weak momentum (inspired by comments from Fed's Lockhart) carried over into the overnight session. Additional losses were contai...
Tue, Aug 4 2015, 11:41 AM
It's common to see a pre-NFP consolidation in bond markets. This refers mainly to the Monday and Tuesday of NFP week, especially if the Monday is NOT...
Tue, Aug 4 2015, 7:33 AM
Come Wednesday, we will have entered the final approach to Friday morning's NFP release as ADP and ISM Non-Manufacturing data are likely to set the to...
Tue, Aug 4 2015, 7:24 PM
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is a pragmatic and reasonable member of the FOMC. He doesn't consistently grind an axe in the same way that sev...
Mon, Aug 3 2015, 12:44 PM
There's that phrase again: "global growth concerns" --that ridiculously broad concept that speaks to all of the more negative "what ifs" surrounding ...
Mon, Aug 3 2015, 7:33 AM
At times like this in bond market history, the collective psychology is akin to the cliche ne'er-do-well from a book or movie who has finally come i...
Mon, Aug 3 2015, 6:02 PM
There were a few good years in the middle of the financial crisis recovery where inflation data just didn't matter. Various economic reports could in...
Fri, Jul 31 2015, 12:28 PM
Today's market mover came out of left field, and in a big way. The Employment Cost Index is typically a non-event, having only moved markets noticeab...
Fri, Jul 31 2015, 8:58 PM
This morning's Employment Cost Index came out of left field with sobering news for anyone counting on a 2015 Fed Rate hike. Fed Fund Futures (which m...
Fri, Jul 31 2015, 7:33 AM
Yesterday's recap mentioned a 'farewell' to low short term rates despite longer term rates 'faring well.' This is a reference to the major changes th...
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