Tue, Nov 17 2015, 5:26 PM
Bond markets bounced back from a weaker morning trading session to end the day largely unchanged. The selling began at 3am, shortly after the start o...
Tue, Nov 17 2015, 2:20 PM
Ever heard of Carlyle? Is that like Cargill? How about Veritas? En vino? No?
Well, 2 of the above are almost exclusively responsible for bond...
Mon, Nov 16 2015, 7:33 AM
There are several past examples of global tragedies affecting domestic interest rates. It's not uncommon to see far less grotesque events than those ...
Mon, Nov 16 2015, 5:37 PM
For a few moments in the middle of the day, it looked like bond markets might be thinking about getting something going insofar as making the recen...
Mon, Nov 16 2015, 1:29 PM
It's been a slow day in terms of market-specific news as most major media outlets continue to focus on Paris. The only relevant market impact was the...
Fri, Nov 13 2015, 7:33 AM
Because that's what you want right? I actually do have a very high probability prediction regarding rates over the next three months. If you can...
Fri, Nov 13 2015, 6:24 PM
If you happened to tune in for today's mid-day commentary , that was essentially the recap for today. But who likes opening links? So here's anothe...
Fri, Nov 13 2015, 1:58 PM
It's still not making a ton of sense to refer to bond markets as moving in the same way that other markets are, but today is as close as we've gotten ...
Thu, Nov 12 2015, 7:33 AM
Earlier this week, bond markets came to a fork in the road. There are two options for the next chapter in the current adventure. While neither is li...
Thu, Nov 12 2015, 7:06 PM
With today's 30yr Treasury auction and slate of corporate issuance, bond markets have worked through much of this week's supply. Neither had any prof...
Thu, Nov 12 2015, 1:44 PM
Bond markets had an uneventful overnight session as they shook the rust off from Wednesday's Veterans Day closure. Bond-friendly comments from Europe...
Tue, Nov 10 2015, 12:34 PM
Apparently, issuers of corporate debt thought it would be best to get it out of the way early this week--perhaps with an eye on the mid-week holiday a...
Tue, Nov 10 2015, 7:33 AM
We've talked a lot about 'repricing Fed rate hike expectations' of late, and the fact that this repricing has been accomplished via the recent sell-of...
Tue, Nov 10 2015, 5:20 PM
Bond markets may not have embarked on a thunderous stampede back into positive territory today, but at least they put a green mark on the daily char...
Mon, Nov 9 2015, 7:34 AM
Until last Friday morning, there was still too much disagreement about what might happen at the Fed's December meeting. The debate was definitely lop...
Mon, Nov 9 2015, 5:16 PM
Bond markets kept on doing what they've been doing every day so far in November: selling-off. Actually, if you'd like to look at it in slightly more...
Mon, Nov 9 2015, 1:37 PM
Last Friday's NFP had immediate implications for financial markets. It meant that there could now be a relatively unanimous agreement on a December r...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 7:33 AM
The inspiration for today's notes comes--as it sometimes does--from something I read and wholeheartedly disagreed with. The piece in question isn't b...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 5:25 PM
Today's jobs data was every bit as strong as the last one was weak. Remember that? A month ago, the thesis was that there were no silver linings i...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 1:16 PM
Bond markets may well have been able to imagine a situation where NFP came in weak enough for some traders to doubt the Fed's resolve in hiking rates ...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 8:50 AM
For some of you, the current goings-on in markets will make lots of sense and indeed, further analysis can't help but be redundant. If that's you, fe...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 5:24 PM
If you're just looking at the 2-day chart, bond markets did a decent job of pushing back toward positive territory today. That was especially true ...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 1:02 PM
I made a reference to the methodical nature of the recent bond market weakness in t his morning's commentary . Today's trading has simply marked ...
Wed, Nov 4 2015, 8:11 AM
It's a special time for bond markets where the interest of bulls and bears are relatively aligned . Unfortunately for those of us watching from the ...
Wed, Nov 4 2015, 5:24 PM
Bonds began the day in fine shape, but not without a good amount of assumed anxiety ahead of data and Yellen. Still, Treasuries did reasonably well...
Wed, Nov 4 2015, 1:33 PM
This morning's economic data had moderate impact on bond market trading levels. The two key releases were ADP Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing....
Tue, Nov 3 2015, 8:18 AM
10yr yields hit the highest levels since September 25th yesterday, but that's about the most interesting thing that could be said about the trading ...
Tue, Nov 3 2015, 5:42 PM
Ongoing, firm, measured selling efforts are exactly what we would expect from a market that was caught somewhat off-guard by last week's FOMC Announce...
Tue, Nov 3 2015, 1:12 PM
Bonds remain under an amount of pressure that is something less than extreme and something much greater than insignificant. MBS continue to outperfor...
Mon, Nov 2 2015, 12:54 PM
Last Friday, bond markets made a small push back against the substantial selling spree on Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, it always stood some...
Mon, Nov 2 2015, 8:26 AM
To reiterate the most important takeaway from last week, the verbiage change in the FOMC Announcement was a big deal . When viewed in conjunction wi...
Mon, Nov 2 2015, 5:40 PM
Bond markets began the day under pressure from decent economic data in Europe and the continuation of generally negative momentum coming off last week...
Fri, Oct 30 2015, 7:32 AM
One of my favorite little snippets of analytical wisdom (or perhaps it's an out that I leave myself in case I'm wrong... yes, that's probably it) is s...
Fri, Oct 30 2015, 5:03 PM
Bond markets continued to trade resiliently through the close today with the help of month-end buying demand. A small-scale battle played out earli...
Fri, Oct 30 2015, 1:12 PM
I was going to title this mid-day post something like "uneventfully holding most of yesterday's losses," but I almost fell asleep just writing it. Th...
Thu, Oct 29 2015, 12:59 PM
Yesterday was obviously bad for bond markets. The shift in tone from the Fed caught many market participants off guard. Since the announcement, Fed ...
Thu, Oct 29 2015, 7:32 AM
MBS Live cornerstone Andy Pada reminded me yesterday that I was pretty sure the Fed was going to hike in September. Indeed, I was relatively passiona...
Thu, Oct 29 2015, 5:30 PM
10yr yields have gone from around 2 percent to 2.17% in 2 days thanks to the Fed's sucker punch. Mind you, this would be a lot worse if some of the m...
Wed, Oct 28 2015, 7:32 AM
Today's 'Day Ahead' title is both a rhetorical and literal question. On a literal level, we'll know soon enough, as 2pm brings the latest official po...
Wed, Oct 28 2015, 5:44 PM
Bond markets began the day like most recent days: flat and uninspired. That wasn't too hard to forgive considering we may well expect some indecision...
Wed, Oct 28 2015, 2:05 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July...
Wed, Oct 28 2015, 1:24 PM
Bond markets are slightly weaker so far today, but still very much within the recent range ahead of the 2pm Fed Announcement. Unlike many recent exam...
Tue, Oct 27 2015, 8:30 AM
It's rare for the near-term outlook in financial markets to operate in the realm of super high probability. With so much money at stake and with trad...
Tue, Oct 27 2015, 6:31 PM
If we needed any more evidence that the earlier price action had much to do with the spillover from European bond markets, the afternoon trade made it...
Tue, Oct 27 2015, 2:20 PM
There continues to be nothing too much to write home about when it comes to post-NFP October in bond markets. There has been a range of 2.0-2.08 th...
Mon, Oct 26 2015, 9:12 AM
The week's key event is undoubtedly Wednesday's FOMC Announcement, but should markets be getting worked up over the possibility of a change? Of cours...
Mon, Oct 26 2015, 5:35 PM
Bond markets got nostalgic for summertime Mondays today. Despite it being the beginning of a Fed week and falling hard on the heels of a sharper move...
Mon, Oct 26 2015, 2:24 PM
It has been a remarkably quiet day so far during the domestic session. This seems more like the rule than the exception of late. The only instance o...
Fri, Oct 23 2015, 7:33 AM
If you follow bond markets closely enough, you may have noticed a certain measure of reluctance on the part of 10yr yields to break below the 2% barri...
Fri, Oct 23 2015, 5:42 PM
If you caught the Mid-Day , you're up to speed on anything interesting that happened today.
If you didn't, the only interesting thing that happen...
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