Tue, Dec 1 2015, 8:51 AM
The end of November was a supportive environment for longer-dated Treasuries like 10yr notes and 30yr bonds. The MBS that most directly affect rate...
Tue, Dec 1 2015, 5:43 PM
Granted, it would be a long shot, and it would require the rest of the week's data playing along, but bond markets are suddenly considering that the r...
Tue, Dec 1 2015, 1:56 PM
Bond markets are in the midst of their best day of trading since October 2nd. For perspective, that says less about how strong things are today and m...
Mon, Nov 30 2015, 12:40 PM
In many ways, today still has the feel of the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week. Markets have been slow to move and generally not interested in rea...
Mon, Nov 30 2015, 8:28 AM
While there were plenty of scheduled data and events last week, their impact was severely limited by the holiday trading dynamics (where bonds usually...
Mon, Nov 30 2015, 5:37 PM
Today was a largely uneventful return from the extended weekend with bond markets doing very little to react to news or economic reports. Chicago PMI...
Fri, Nov 27 2015, 8:49 AM
Welcome to the slowest day of the year for bond markets. While markets are technically "open" until 2pm Eastern, that only means that the 2 or 3 peop...
Fri, Nov 27 2015, 1:54 PM
Black Friday is billed as the lightest day of the year for bonds, and today did not disappoint. Fannie 3.5s drifted sideways in a 2 tick range (narro...
Wed, Nov 25 2015, 7:56 AM
It's the day before before Thanksgiving, and bond markets couldn't be any less interesting if they tried. Have you ever been so enticed to continue r...
Wed, Nov 25 2015, 6:09 PM
Trading activity was fairly decent in bond markets today--especially considering the seasonal norms, though this is largely a factor of Thanksgiving f...
Wed, Nov 25 2015, 1:28 PM
Bond markets have had plenty of would-be market movers thrown in their general direction today. This began in the overnight session with massive mo...
Tue, Nov 24 2015, 7:34 AM
As is often the case on the week of Thanksgiving, the regularly-scheduled economic data continues apace, even if it must be crammed into fewer days th...
Tue, Nov 24 2015, 5:39 PM
This continues to be one of the most anomalous Thanksgiving weeks in the history of Thanksgiving weeks--at least as far as bond markets are concerne...
Tue, Nov 24 2015, 1:43 PM
The only significant development for markets today in terms of news or economic data was the overnight news that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter je...
Mon, Nov 23 2015, 9:37 AM
Last Friday, I talked about some of the general bond market dynamics we tend to see around this time of year. It wouldn't be a bad idea to check tha...
Mon, Nov 23 2015, 5:36 PM
Traders punched the clock, made their trades, and went home today. Before the clock-punching, there was the overnight session, in which European bond...
Mon, Nov 23 2015, 1:38 PM
The story of today is largely a two-parter, and a fairly simple one at that. Part 1: bonds weaker in Europe. Part 2: bonds stronger in the US. The ...
Fri, Nov 20 2015, 9:09 AM
For bond markets, the week of the Thanksgiving holiday tends to be fairly formulaic . It's not that the same thing happens every year, but with almo...
Fri, Nov 20 2015, 5:10 PM
Once again, the bulk of the day's recap was inadvertently captured in the mid-day-commentary. Feel free to read that instead of this if you want. ...
Fri, Nov 20 2015, 1:47 PM
If illiquidity shows up for the start of the holiday trading season and says "I come bearing gifts!" you do not want those gifts. They typically cons...
Thu, Nov 19 2015, 8:34 AM
There is no question that the Fed hinted at a brave new world for global interest rates in yesterday's Minutes release, but for most market participan...
Thu, Nov 19 2015, 5:18 PM
This will largely be a rehash of the Mid-Day commentary as it captured all of the day's relevant themes. The themes in question are at least threefo...
Thu, Nov 19 2015, 1:28 PM
Staying on this topic of yesterday's weird juxtaposition of analysis from the Fed, today's trading is fairly logical. The juxtaposition in question i...
Wed, Nov 18 2015, 7:33 AM
If I were to deliver my normal pre-Fed shtick, I would probably point out the fact that the Fed has a tendency to use the Minutes release to promote a...
Wed, Nov 18 2015, 6:22 PM
As expected, today's Fed Minutes were a non-event. Well, almost... While the bulk of the Minutes release was simply a wordier version of the October...
Wed, Nov 18 2015, 1:32 PM
With the 2pm release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting less than an hour away, bond markets are clearly in consolidation mode. Both Tre...
Tue, Nov 17 2015, 8:30 AM
We had a good run last week of modest gains that followed the abrupt selling-spree that began in late October. In other words, rates rose quickly , ...
Tue, Nov 17 2015, 5:26 PM
Bond markets bounced back from a weaker morning trading session to end the day largely unchanged. The selling began at 3am, shortly after the start o...
Tue, Nov 17 2015, 2:20 PM
Ever heard of Carlyle? Is that like Cargill? How about Veritas? En vino? No?
Well, 2 of the above are almost exclusively responsible for bond...
Mon, Nov 16 2015, 7:33 AM
There are several past examples of global tragedies affecting domestic interest rates. It's not uncommon to see far less grotesque events than those ...
Mon, Nov 16 2015, 5:37 PM
For a few moments in the middle of the day, it looked like bond markets might be thinking about getting something going insofar as making the recen...
Mon, Nov 16 2015, 1:29 PM
It's been a slow day in terms of market-specific news as most major media outlets continue to focus on Paris. The only relevant market impact was the...
Fri, Nov 13 2015, 7:33 AM
Because that's what you want right? I actually do have a very high probability prediction regarding rates over the next three months. If you can...
Fri, Nov 13 2015, 6:24 PM
If you happened to tune in for today's mid-day commentary , that was essentially the recap for today. But who likes opening links? So here's anothe...
Fri, Nov 13 2015, 1:58 PM
It's still not making a ton of sense to refer to bond markets as moving in the same way that other markets are, but today is as close as we've gotten ...
Thu, Nov 12 2015, 7:33 AM
Earlier this week, bond markets came to a fork in the road. There are two options for the next chapter in the current adventure. While neither is li...
Thu, Nov 12 2015, 7:06 PM
With today's 30yr Treasury auction and slate of corporate issuance, bond markets have worked through much of this week's supply. Neither had any prof...
Thu, Nov 12 2015, 1:44 PM
Bond markets had an uneventful overnight session as they shook the rust off from Wednesday's Veterans Day closure. Bond-friendly comments from Europe...
Tue, Nov 10 2015, 12:34 PM
Apparently, issuers of corporate debt thought it would be best to get it out of the way early this week--perhaps with an eye on the mid-week holiday a...
Tue, Nov 10 2015, 7:33 AM
We've talked a lot about 'repricing Fed rate hike expectations' of late, and the fact that this repricing has been accomplished via the recent sell-of...
Tue, Nov 10 2015, 5:20 PM
Bond markets may not have embarked on a thunderous stampede back into positive territory today, but at least they put a green mark on the daily char...
Mon, Nov 9 2015, 7:34 AM
Until last Friday morning, there was still too much disagreement about what might happen at the Fed's December meeting. The debate was definitely lop...
Mon, Nov 9 2015, 5:16 PM
Bond markets kept on doing what they've been doing every day so far in November: selling-off. Actually, if you'd like to look at it in slightly more...
Mon, Nov 9 2015, 1:37 PM
Last Friday's NFP had immediate implications for financial markets. It meant that there could now be a relatively unanimous agreement on a December r...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 7:33 AM
The inspiration for today's notes comes--as it sometimes does--from something I read and wholeheartedly disagreed with. The piece in question isn't b...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 5:25 PM
Today's jobs data was every bit as strong as the last one was weak. Remember that? A month ago, the thesis was that there were no silver linings i...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 1:16 PM
Bond markets may well have been able to imagine a situation where NFP came in weak enough for some traders to doubt the Fed's resolve in hiking rates ...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 8:50 AM
For some of you, the current goings-on in markets will make lots of sense and indeed, further analysis can't help but be redundant. If that's you, fe...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 5:24 PM
If you're just looking at the 2-day chart, bond markets did a decent job of pushing back toward positive territory today. That was especially true ...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 1:02 PM
I made a reference to the methodical nature of the recent bond market weakness in t his morning's commentary . Today's trading has simply marked ...
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