Thu, Feb 4 2016, 8:20 AM
It used to be that the first Thursday of every month provided a fairly reliable chance of volatility . That was during the days when Europe was an e...
Thu, Feb 4 2016, 5:18 PM
Today was a so-called "inside day" for bond markets, meaning prices and yields remained INSIDE yesterday's range of prices and yields. Economic dat...
Wed, Feb 3 2016, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's morning notes laid out an ominous technical comparison to last January and we promptly proceeded to have the best rally of the year. Ther...
Wed, Feb 3 2016, 6:19 PM
Two days ago, we were able to refer to Monday as the best day of the year, as long as you forget about the Friday before it. Today is the new 'best ...
Tue, Feb 2 2016, 7:34 AM
When things have been unexpectedly as good as they have been for as long as they have been, one of the side-effects can be increased anxiety about the...
Tue, Feb 2 2016, 5:42 PM
Surprise! It's another mega-rally day. Depending on your yardstick, this is the 5th or 6th mega rally so far this year. Considering there have on...
Mon, Feb 1 2016, 7:33 AM
The weeks that contain the first Friday of any given month have a flavor all their own. Several of the month's most important pieces of economic da...
Mon, Feb 1 2016, 5:41 PM
In a way, today was the best sort of losing day for bond markets. If you factor out last Friday, today was the best trading day for bond markets in...
Fri, Jan 29 2016, 7:33 AM
You can't step 2 feet out your front door in 2016 without being pelted by news regarding the close correlation between stocks, bonds and oil. Heck, I...
Fri, Jan 29 2016, 5:11 PM
For the end of any given day, bond markets closed at their best levels since April. If we look at only month-end closing levels, today was the best ...
Thu, Jan 28 2016, 8:26 AM
If we take the awesome part of 2016 for granted and simply focus on our most timely challenges, we find bond markets struggling to make any further im...
Thu, Jan 28 2016, 5:41 PM
Stocks gained a bit of ground today. Oil prices were significantly higher--building on a strong 3-day bounce. But on both accounts, bond markets d...
Wed, Jan 27 2016, 7:33 AM
Today brings one of those Fed policy announcements where we can already be reasonably sure of the outcome, but where the subtleties could still prov...
Wed, Jan 27 2016, 6:10 PM
Today's Fed announcement was decidedly more downbeat than the previous iteration and markets reacted accordingly. There was never any real chance t...
Wed, Jan 27 2016, 2:05 PM
(NOTE: removals are struck-through and additions are underlined)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October Dece...
Tue, Jan 26 2016, 8:17 AM
Last week ended with bond markets looking like they were at risk of bigger, longer-term bounce back toward higher rates. The catalyst was/is the "ris...
Tue, Jan 26 2016, 5:22 PM
Bond markets held their ground today, which is quite the accomplishment considering stocks rallied. Rates and stocks have been strongly correlated...
Mon, Jan 25 2016, 7:33 AM
This week has the potential to begin fairly slowly. Market participation will undoubtedly be affected on some level by the massive snow storm that h...
Mon, Jan 25 2016, 5:41 PM
If you don't live in the Northeast and if you don't read/watch the news, there was a big snow storm. In New York City, for instance, it was the 2nd ...
Fri, Jan 22 2016, 7:32 AM
Enquiring minds want to know... In fact, even inquiring minds are fairly curious as to whether or not the pleasantly surprising bond market rally wil...
Fri, Jan 22 2016, 6:24 PM
Bond markets continued to do the exact same thing they've been doing all year: follow stocks/oil. Today was the first day of the year that stocks h...
Thu, Jan 21 2016, 7:32 AM
Historically, any time we see the biggest bouts of selling in equities markets, a conversation about "safe-haven" assets is usually not far behind. ...
Thu, Jan 21 2016, 5:29 PM
Today was the 4th day of the year that stocks closed higher than they opened. In other, far from coincidental news, it was also the 4th day of the ...
Wed, Jan 20 2016, 7:32 AM
If you've been tuned in to any reasonable extent--and no one would blame you if you weren't--you're already well aware that Bonds have been on fire ...
Wed, Jan 20 2016, 5:36 PM
The S&P closed at its lowest level since April 2014 today and intraday prices were at their lowest levels since February 2014. If yesterday's $28/bar...
Tue, Jan 19 2016, 7:32 AM
Stocks and bond yields don't always follow each other, but their correlation is not only undeniable so far in 2016, it's been the most important bond ...
Tue, Jan 19 2016, 4:54 PM
For the 3rd time this year, the S&P avoided making new intraday lows, and for the 3rd time this year, mortgage rates moved higher. I am not a fan of ...
Fri, Jan 15 2016, 7:32 AM
It's been an utterly hopeless week for domestic economic data so far, with nary a top tier report in sight. Not only that, but after last week's ADP ...
Fri, Jan 15 2016, 4:00 PM
What's a risk meltdown? What's a "risk market" for that matter? This is just a shorthand term for anything investors are normally buying when stoc...
Thu, Jan 14 2016, 7:32 AM
Sometimes all the analysis and planning in the world can't prepare you for how something actually transpires. More than a few traders had plans headi...
Thu, Jan 14 2016, 5:24 PM
Bond markets only managed to hold steady today, and it felt like the worst day of the year . There are mortgage-specific reasons for that, however, ...
Wed, Jan 13 2016, 7:33 AM
Yesterday's bond market rally came out of left field, not just for market watchers, but for market participants as well. In fact, one of the driving...
Wed, Jan 13 2016, 5:41 PM
10yr yields fell 1.4bps today and Fannie 3.0s ended the day 3/32nds better in price. Those stats could describe any bland, uneventful day for bond ...
Tue, Jan 12 2016, 7:33 AM
There have been and continue to be two distinct ways to view the past week and half. The first is to consider the weakness in stocks and the gains ...
Tue, Jan 12 2016, 5:36 PM
Today was interesting in the sense that it challenged some of the assumptions that have been easy to hold so far in 2016, namely: that bond markets ...
Mon, Jan 11 2016, 7:33 AM
One of my favorite wry market witticisms over the years is a variation of the seminal: " the trend is your friend ." This seemingly obvious, simplist...
Mon, Jan 11 2016, 6:37 PM
As we've been discussing fairly regularly, bond markets have been consistently dragged to better and better levels so far in the new year, by massive ...
Fri, Jan 8 2016, 7:25 AM
Bond markets were able to put some green on the screen again yesterday, but that's not as positive a development as it normally is. We talk sometimes...
Fri, Jan 8 2016, 6:54 PM
Today's NFP data was exactly what we needed to let us know what has been going on so far in 2016. It was so strong that it left no doubt as to how ...
Thu, Jan 7 2016, 10:21 AM
Bond markets continue defying the odds so far in 2016, with another strong performance in the overnight session (although things may be leveling off...
Thu, Jan 7 2016, 8:26 PM
Bond markets continue being forced to go wherever global equities markets tell them to go. The sheer scale of the selling in China, Europe, and the U...
Wed, Jan 6 2016, 9:06 AM
Bond markets are coming out of the overnight session with a pleasantly surprising advantage, and a good reminder that our fate can be influenced by m...
Wed, Jan 6 2016, 6:31 PM
Bond markets had a great day. Right from the start of the overnight session, Asian equities markets were pulling global bond yields and stock price...
Tue, Jan 5 2016, 7:33 AM
Bond markets are currently in a sort of disheartening position. The Fed rate hike means that most rates should move higher, even if that happens wi...
Tue, Jan 5 2016, 5:41 PM
Although there were no significant economic reports on tap today, bond markets still faced a few hurdles--more than 20 billion of them, in fact. That...
Mon, Jan 4 2016, 7:33 AM
There are several types of traders that play key roles in the bond market. Their motivations and concerns can be surprisingly diverse . For instanc...
Mon, Jan 4 2016, 6:57 PM
It was the first day back from the holiday market delirium and market participants needed a touchstone to kick things off. They found it in the form ...
Thu, Dec 31 2015, 8:51 AM
Today is a very exciting day for bond market participants. Most of them are on vacation, or at the very least, in a vacation-like state of mind. The...
Thu, Dec 31 2015, 3:53 PM
Pre-announced bond buying programs are really quite something. They have all ended up being well-telegraphed enough to allow investors to do their o...
Wed, Dec 30 2015, 9:26 AM
Bond markets--especially Treasuries--had one of their worst days of the month yesterday. Or maybe they didn't... It's hard to say for sure when vo...
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