Mon, Jun 1 2015, 5:33 PM
Welcome to the 1st half of 2015. This is the 6 month period where European interest rates defied even the most bullish expectations after Europe bega...
Mon, Jun 1 2015, 1:39 PM
With corporate issuance subsiding somewhat and month-end tradeflows providing steadier demand, the last week of May proved to be an eye of the storm. ...
Fri, May 29 2015, 7:33 AM
Just yesterday morning, I noted that bond markets may be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for May. Indeed, things have been going well enoug...
Fri, May 29 2015, 5:30 PM
It came right down to the wire . The best 3pm closing level for 10yr yields was previously seen on May 1st at 2.117. We hovered near those levels f...
Fri, May 29 2015, 1:15 PM
Today has quickly become the 3rd day of exceptionally calm trading relative to a heretofore tumultuous month. The even-keeled vibes began right fro...
Thu, May 28 2015, 12:12 PM
After the last visit to May's weakest levels (last Wednesday morning), MBS and Treasuries have been in a fairly linear trend back toward stronger lev...
Thu, May 28 2015, 7:33 AM
Here we are in the last week of May and things finally seem to be going our way (knock on wood) with respect to bond markets putting some more consist...
Thu, May 28 2015, 5:39 PM
There's 'month-end' and then there's 'month-end.' In a general sense, this entire week can be referred to as month-end as far as bond markets are c...
Wed, May 27 2015, 12:05 PM
On an otherwise quiet morning, bond markets had been holding in reasonably strong territory. MBS and Treasuries began the domestic session at slightl...
Wed, May 27 2015, 7:34 AM
While yesterday didn't mark any ground-breaking foray back into the stronger trading levels seen in mid-April, it did end up being the first time si...
Wed, May 27 2015, 6:27 PM
MBS and Treasuries ended the day near their best closing levels since the beginning of the month. It wasn't a given from the outset though, and far...
Tue, May 26 2015, 7:34 AM
In several ways, last week was a bit of a let-down in terms of answering the big questions. Treasuries and MBS had generally been holding sideways af...
Tue, May 26 2015, 6:22 PM
US rates markets began the global trading session fairly timidly, but moving slightly lower in yield. European hours brought bigger moves as stocks t...
Tue, May 26 2015, 1:25 PM
Halfway through the day and domestic bond markets are very close to levels not seen since May 8th. 10yr yields are challenging the important 2.14 in...
Fri, May 22 2015, 12:03 PM
Trading has been surprisingly reactive to data this morning with stronger CPI resulting in an obvious selling spree. Up until that point, bond market...
Fri, May 22 2015, 7:34 AM
On the surface , today has a lot of things going for it. The only economic data is CPI, and it would be hard-pressed to convince anyone that inflati...
Fri, May 22 2015, 3:19 PM
Surprisingly, the story of the day turned out to be Core CPI coming in at +0.2558 vs a forecast of +0.2. This was apparently enough to send bond mar...
Thu, May 21 2015, 12:30 PM
April 9th. That's the last time bond markets haven't rallied on a Thursday. While some of the older examples in this trend are close calls, the la...
Thu, May 21 2015, 7:34 AM
Hi, Welcome to the show. Are you ready to play Find That Market Mover?
It's America's favorite game (or at least it's my favorite idea for a to...
Thu, May 21 2015, 5:00 PM
Much of the volatility in late April and early May has been frustratingly opaque in terms of traditional cause and effect relationships. We were forc...
Wed, May 20 2015, 7:34 AM
Much has been made of today's FOMC Minutes as some sort of defining moment in the potential long-term shift toward higher rates. Some say it's a re...
Wed, May 20 2015, 5:17 PM
In this morning's commentary , I said that anxiety over today's FOMC Minutes was misplaced when it comes to defining moments in a potential long-te...
Wed, May 20 2015, 1:16 PM
On the whole, it's been a quiet day for bond markets, with the assumption being that volatility will increase after the 2pm release of the FOMC Minut...
Tue, May 19 2015, 7:34 AM
The Fed is yet to come this week and that could be the first good opportunity for bonds to decide on their next move from the past few days of consoli...
Tue, May 19 2015, 5:24 PM
Someone wants us to think that rates are heading abruptly higher. Well, to be fair, it's not so much about wanting anyone to think anything. It has ...
Tue, May 19 2015, 1:22 PM
Remember the "QE-on vs QE-off" trading in 2013? In an extremely overt way, stocks and bonds rallied and sold together based on constantly evolving ...
Mon, May 18 2015, 12:54 PM
Last Monday saw an unpleasant reversal of 2 days of gains heading into the previous weekend. Now this Monday is going through some of the same motion...
Mon, May 18 2015, 7:34 AM
If you've been out for 3-4 weeks, welcome back. Bonds have been selling off rather abruptly and now we're hoping for a bounce. We thought we had one...
Mon, May 18 2015, 5:16 PM
After Thursday and Friday of last week mimicked the previous Thursday and Friday, it was fair to wonder if we'd get another ugly Monday today. Whil...
Fri, May 15 2015, 12:54 PM
Be warned that the following reduces a complex, multifaceted issue to one of its individual components. It's merely an examination of this one comp...
Fri, May 15 2015, 7:34 AM
Things were looking up as of yesterday's close. After weeks of selling off with only a brief 1.5 day correction last Thursday and Friday, bonds fina...
Fri, May 15 2015, 6:09 PM
Remember last Thursday and Friday? Those were pretty good! It sure looked like bonds had had enough weakness for a while and might start to consolid...
Thu, May 14 2015, 11:04 AM
This will largely be a rehash of the morning update that MBS Live members have already seen, as we haven't been treated to the morning volatility ...
Thu, May 14 2015, 7:34 AM
If bond markets are going to make something happen with their recent attempts to establish support at the weakest levels of 2015, it would be nice if ...
Thu, May 14 2015, 4:05 PM
In recent weeks, we've increasingly discussed the concept of " supply ." This has largely been driven by the ramp up in corporate debt issuance creat...
Wed, May 13 2015, 12:46 PM
The headline is the extend of the story this morning. We began the day in positive territory, but have been pulled into negative territory by Europea...
Wed, May 13 2015, 7:34 AM
Who's to say if the next correction will be like the last correction which lasted all of 1.5 days before bonds got blasted again? But even the bigges...
Wed, May 13 2015, 4:02 PM
No love for bond markets...
That's the only possible takeaway after a day where technicals are stacking up in a friendly way, Retail Sales and seve...
Tue, May 12 2015, 7:34 AM
In some ways and in some instances , past precedent can have some sort of predictive value. 9 times out of 10 though, it's only the sort of thing ...
Tue, May 12 2015, 5:17 PM
Who can forget this classic quip when asked why rates are higher: "more sellers than buyers?" OK, so maybe that's not so classic, depending on your...
Tue, May 12 2015, 1:29 PM
Bonds were horribly weaker yet again overnight, and the same old factors are in play. These aren't glamorous, satisfying to understand, or easy to ex...
Mon, May 11 2015, 7:34 AM
Bond markets sold-off too far and too fast heading into last week's jobs report. In fact, even by Thursday morning (overnight), the sell-off had reac...
Mon, May 11 2015, 5:42 PM
As I check my mental inventory of recent headline titles, I find it interesting and scary that the only other times that compare historically have bee...
Mon, May 11 2015, 1:39 PM
This isn't the most enjoyable way to begin the new week, but it was one of the options suggested by recent trends. Specifically, this option was the ...
Fri, May 8 2015, 7:34 AM
Today is probably the most interesting of the year when it comes to long term implications for domestic bond markets. If you think about it, things m...
Fri, May 8 2015, 4:54 PM
The game is not over. We didn't just miraculously win against all odds. The sell-off that's plagued bond markets for the past 2 weeks can't yet be...
Fri, May 8 2015, 1:27 PM
If you observe nothing else from anything I've written this week, it should be the calls for a technical correction on Wednesday and Thursday. Those ...
Thu, May 7 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's morning commentary contained a chart and discussion on Treasury yields breaking above the upper bollinger band for 5 consecutive days....
Thu, May 7 2015, 5:33 PM
Before the Fed wrapped up QE purchases last year, the amount of movement we saw in the first few minutes of the day would have bordered on catastrophi...
Thu, May 7 2015, 1:35 PM
Move over Pontiac. Bond market volatility is driving excitement.
While that may be one of the worst s entences I've ever written, it has the red...
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