Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:42 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Forecasts That Are Not Really Forecasts
Four times a year, the Fed updates its SEP (...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 2:00 PM
The following is a comparison of today's Fed statement to the previous statement from May 3rd. Deletions are struck through and in red. Additions ar...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 12:44 PM
Today's Fed events are both straightforward, mostly predictable, and potentially highly consequential. The Fed's line of thinking will likely prove t...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 4:10 PM
Tuesday brought an unfriendly paradoxical reaction for rates. Don't worry. We can shift gears to words that make more sense now. Rates began the ...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 3:41 PM
Frustrating Snowball Selling Despite Decent CPI
Even though CPI came in right in line with forecasts today (...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 11:12 AM
Today brought the first of the week's two major events with core CPI coming in right in line with the 0.4% forecast. Headline inflation fell even mor...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates drifted slightly higher this morning with the average lender moving up to the highest levels in nearly 2 weeks. Top tier 30yr fixed sc...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 3:45 PM
MBS Outperform Amid Treasury Supply Pressure
Bonds made it through the overnight session without any major d...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 11:06 AM
The week's much anticipated headliners are clearly the CPI/Fed combo on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. While those events still account for a va...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 4:20 PM
In a surprising turn of events, this week's biggest market mover for interest rates was a policy announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The event w...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 3:57 PM
Canada Doesn't Really Matter. Bring on CPI and The Fed
The day began with a hunt for the mystery market move...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 9:46 AM
This otherwise sleepy Friday began with the sort of clearly defined spike in volume and yield that often accompanies big ticket economic data. With t...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:19 PM
Economic data is one of the most basic and reliable inputs for the bond market. The bond market, in turn, dictates day to day interest rate movement....
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Claims Data Completely Erases At Least One Day of Higher Rate Expectations
There have been been several days...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 12:04 PM
If you like low rates, you are often unfortunately rooting for negative economic data. You're not a bad person. Bonds are simply a hedge against eco...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates continue to operate in a fairly narrow range but we've been mostly moving in one direction inside that range so far this month. Late l...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 3:48 PM
BOC Warns US Rate Market Against Complacency
US rate traders are pretty sure they have the Fed figured out a...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 1:15 PM
Yesterday, it was the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) with it's first rate hike after "skipping" a few meetings. Today it was the Bank of Canada (BOC)....
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:42 PM
By Friday, there's a distinct possibility that you'll be tired of hearing different versions of the same story. The plot: last Friday's jobs report p...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Nothing to See Here
It would be hard to make a case for any other day in the past month being more boring th...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 10:37 AM
With the week's only top tier economic release hitting on Monday morning, the path of least resistance for the rest of the week is a choppy, sideways ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates held fairly steady over the weekend. That wasn't necessarily destined to be the case as the underlying bond market suggested another m...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:43 PM
Weaker Data Helps Bonds Hold Ground
Bonds remained in selling mode after Friday's jobs report. 10yr yields ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 12:29 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but quickly found their footing after softer PMI data. In particular, ISM Services (50.3 vs 52.2) helped 10yr...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 6:40 PM
After dominating the news cycle for weeks, the debt ceiling issue is suddenly resolved and the bond market doesn't seem to care. The jobs report prove...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 4:13 PM
What Debt Ceiling? Yields Follow NFP Higher
After being utterly bombarded for weeks, newswire feeds at tradi...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 2:00 PM
Nonfarm payrolls were up 339k, well above the 190k forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, well above the 3.5% forecast. Ho...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Data-Driven Rally, But There's Bigger Data Ahead
Yesterday's economic data made for a bit of back and forth ...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 1:13 PM
Bonds had been hoping for econ data to reinforce a ceiling after a recent run to the highest yields in months and the past few days have delivered. T...
Wed, May 31 2023, 4:43 PM
After hitting the highest levels in several months last Friday, mortgage rates have fallen fairly quickly in the new week. As bond markets improved t...
Wed, May 31 2023, 3:58 PM
Domestic Events Mostly Overshadowed by European Influence
While we can trace some of this morning's back and...
Wed, May 31 2023, 1:26 PM
The big news so far this week is the absence of any concrete conclusion to the debt ceiling debate (delivered in box labelled "debt ceiling debate sol...
Tue, May 30 2023, 10:53 PM
Nice Rally With Buyers Back in The Office
Any time bonds make a big (but not necessarily completely justifie...
Tue, May 30 2023, 4:19 PM
The past 2 weeks were fairly rough for fans of low mortgage rates. The average lender moved higher at the fastest pace since February over that time....
Tue, May 30 2023, 12:55 PM
Whether it was the economic headwinds implied by the stop-gap debt ceiling proposal or a return to the market among traders who'd pared positions ahea...
Fri, May 26 2023, 3:45 PM
It was nearly impossible to avoid news regarding the debt ceiling this week, but how much does it actually matter? Let's make sure we're on the same ...
Fri, May 26 2023, 2:04 PM
Bonds Diverge Over Data Implications
It's been a consistently bad week for the bond market and this morning'...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:34 PM
It was bad news but big news a few days ago when the average top tier 30yr fixed rate made it back to 7% for the first time since early March. After ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:24 PM
Debt Ceiling Debate Volatility Causing Issues For Bonds
Treasuries sold off in a linear fashion today--much ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 1:35 PM
Despite vague hints of support over the past few days, the bond market is back to the same old tricks seen last week. It's actually a pretty simple t...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:43 PM
Wednesday was a fairly volatile day for mortgage rates. The movement wasn't extreme, but there were a few lead changes. The day began with the avera...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:27 PM
Today is Best Viewed as "In-Range Volatility"
Bonds began the day on the back foot as UK inflation crushed f...
Wed, May 24 2023, 9:25 AM
UK inflation data came in HOT overnight with the core m/m reading up1.3% vs 0.9% f'cast, a far cry from the 0.4% m/m core inflation in the US and anot...
Tue, May 23 2023, 4:58 PM
Today's headline is the most dramatic part of today's story on mortgage rates. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate has been mostly operating in a 6-...
Tue, May 23 2023, 4:49 PM
Debt Ceiling Finally Having an Impact
After several weeks in the news cycle spotlight, the debt ceiling is f...
Tue, May 23 2023, 1:30 PM
Today's most relevant econ data--S&P Global Services PMI--came in at 55.1 versus a 51.5 forecast. In a world where the bond market is generally afrai...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:36 PM
There are some broad rate surveys/indices that show 30yr fixed mortgage rates under 6.5% or close to it, but it's a bit of a mystery as to how such a ...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:24 PM
Why Are We Here And Where Are We Going?
The bond market has entered a lull heading into Memorial Day weekend...
Mon, May 22 2023, 12:53 PM
If you're as determined as we are to avoid reading any more than you need to about the debt ceiling, then the Fed is pretty much the only game in town...
Fri, May 19 2023, 4:24 PM
The debt ceiling debate is all over the news, but it's a different ceiling is commanding more of the bond market's attention. Still, we wouldn't say ...
