Fri, May 19 2023, 4:14 PM
What The Range Breakout Means For The Outlook
With bonds seeing additional weakness after breaking above 3.6...
Fri, May 19 2023, 11:05 AM
Yesterday's headline was "range breakout?" with a question mark. We only need a change in punctuation to adapt the headline to today's reality. Yiel...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:44 PM
Range Breakout ?
The day began with data-driven selling pushing 10yr yields up and over the 3.60% range boun...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:20 PM
It may not be a death by a thousand cuts, but mortgage rates are suffering a bit of blood loss from roughly 5 cuts. Specifically, the past 5 days hav...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:45 PM
For The Bond Market, The Waiting Will Continue
Phrases like "hurry up and wait" and "ho hum day" have been i...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving higher since late last week, ultimately hitting the highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday, but that trend ende...
Wed, May 17 2023, 1:04 PM
One would think that the debt ceiling debate would be a key issue for the bond market considering Treasuries are sort of the definitive US government ...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:36 PM
Breaking Down The Paradoxical Reaction to Retail Sales
Today's Retail Sales headline may have missed the mar...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates didn't change much today. The average lender was only a hair higher than yesterday afternoon. But that was enough for today's rates t...
Tue, May 16 2023, 11:41 AM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but are in the midst of a paradoxical sell-off following weaker than expected Retail Sales. Weaker...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:14 PM
For those who only want to be woken up when mortgage rates make a big move down into the 5% range or back up and over 7%, you're free to go. The most...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:01 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
The bond market is increasingly resigned to the fairly boring task of waiting to find out ...
Mon, May 15 2023, 12:28 PM
While it may be blessing for rates to be flatter and more predictable lately, the fact that the sideways range is close to long-term highs feels more ...
Fri, May 12 2023, 7:33 PM
Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster's definitions of the word "consolidate," and you'll find "to form together into a compact mass." Financ...
Fri, May 12 2023, 3:36 PM
Bonds Bounce Data Confirms Range Resistance
Yesterday's bounce at 3.35% suggested that the bond market's wil...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates inched lower again on Thursday as economic reports came out slightly weaker and bank sector concerns remain in the spotlight. Such thi...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Rally or Resistance?
The bond market rallied on Thursday with 10yr yields dropping about 5bps to just under ...
Thu, May 11 2023, 11:51 AM
The market is definitely in an on-again, off-again romance with bank drama. Today was already shaping up to be an "on-again" day before the open as P...
Wed, May 10 2023, 5:02 PM
Today marked the release of the most recent monthly installment of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most closely followed inflation report and one ...
Wed, May 10 2023, 4:57 PM
Does Today's Data Change The Outlook?
There were a few rate friendly tidbits buried in the CPI data, but for...
Wed, May 10 2023, 12:25 PM
The long awaited CPI data is out and the results could scarcely be less eventful. Core monthly inflation (the most important number for markets today...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates rose at their fastest pace in decades in 2022 and if only one thing could take the blame, it would be inflation. There are several way...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:16 PM
MBS Recover Some Losses Thanks to 3yr Auction
The day began with a strong bond auction in Germany setting th...
Tue, May 9 2023, 12:53 PM
A strong bond auction in Germany set the stage for US bond yields to start the day slightly lower, but sellers have been pushing yields higher steadil...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates moved noticeably higher to start the new week--high enough that you'd have to go back to last Monday to see anything higher. That's th...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:16 PM
Rising Rates Reiterate Relevance of The Range
Bonds were in weaker shape right from the start. Holiday clos...
Mon, May 8 2023, 12:08 PM
The bond market isn't trying on any new hats recently. Yields have been mostly deadlocked between 3.4 and 3.6%.
Econ data has been mixed. Bank...
Fri, May 5 2023, 4:39 PM
The first week of any given month tends to have the highest concentration of economic data with the power to influence the bond market, and thus inter...
Fri, May 5 2023, 4:37 PM
Logical NFP Reaction Leaves Range Intact. Bring on CPI
The jobs report has come and gone without offering an...
Fri, May 5 2023, 12:35 PM
ADP, Consumer Confidence labor differential, ISM Manufacturing. Challenger job cuts, Philly Fed, Empire State, Continuing Jobless Claims... These are...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:52 PM
There's likely no getting around that fact that mortgage rates will be moving noticeably--possibly substantially--in the coming days. This is due to ...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:40 PM
Asymmetric Risk Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds spent time on both sides of 'unchanged' today with much of it in ...
Thu, May 4 2023, 11:39 AM
After yesterday's Fed announcement and press conference, longer-term bond yields moved quickly into a position to challenge the prevailing range floor...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:27 PM
The implication of "Fed rate hikes" is a constant source of confusion in the housing market. The general belief is that the Fed controls rates and if...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Like Fed's Dovish Hike
There was really only one option for the Fed today: hike rates by 25bps but sig...
Wed, May 3 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to Economic activity expanded at a modest growth pace in spending and production. the first quarter. Job gains have p...
Wed, May 3 2023, 10:42 AM
There were two big potential market movers on the calendar today: ISM non-manufacturing and the Fed announcement. ISM data is out and it is boring (r...
Tue, May 2 2023, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates began the week with a moderately big jump to what were essentially the highest levels in more than a month. Less than 24 hours later a...
Tue, May 2 2023, 4:09 PM
What a Difference a Day Makes
Bonds completely erased yesterday's snowball sell-off with an even bigger snow...
Tue, May 2 2023, 10:38 AM
After a sharp sell-off to start the week, bonds are back in action this morning, enjoying the carnage and chaos in the economy every bit as much as th...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:46 PM
Snowball Sell-Off to Start The Month
Sometimes headlines reference the beginning or end of any given day/wee...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:42 PM
Whether we call it a bailout, a failure, or a fire sale, First Republic Bank was formally absorbed by JP Morgan Chase early this morning. Interest rat...
Mon, May 1 2023, 12:13 PM
The bond market is in a trifecta of trouble so far this morning. Just before the open, JPM announced that it was assuming the loans and deposits of F...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:40 PM
Stronger Today, Sideways in General
Bonds improved overnight on a combination of friendly central bank news ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates fell nicely to start the week but only after rising rather abruptly in the previous two weeks. That said, short term ups and downs are ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 10:54 AM
Bonds were ushered into the domestic session in moderately stronger territory thanks to a friendly policy announcement from the Bank of Japan and soft...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:38 PM
Bonds Reposition For "Higher For Longer" After GDP
Today's GDP number came in lower than expected at 1.1 vs ...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:12 PM
Interest rates are determined by the price/yield of bonds. Bonds can take cues from several places, but inflation always matters. Inflation had been...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 12:30 PM
The bond market is standing in front of the whack-a-mole game with only 2 holes. On one side is the mini banking crisis. On the other side is inflat...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 3:48 PM
For mortgage rates and the broader bond market, everything has been fairly sideways in the bigger picture since the initial wave of bank drama in earl...
