Thu, Dec 8 2022, 12:14 PM
As we watched yesterday's rally continue to extend into the afternoon without any compelling motivation, it began to seem slightly overdone--especiall...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today after new economic data showed a big drop in the cost of labor in Q3. Labor costs are one of the places t...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:22 PM
Mini Snowball Rally on Data, Technicals, and Lack of Supply
There are several ways to approach today's rally...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 9:50 AM
We never like to view technical levels or technical analysis as having any reliable predictive value about the future. It's more of a framework that ...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:57 PM
This week continues to be a placeholder ahead of more consequential events coming up in the week ahead. Specifically, next Tuesday and Wednesday's co...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:39 PM
Mystery Rally Gets Bonds Back in The Green
Both Tuesday and Wednesday are effectively free from market-movin...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 12:23 PM
Today's trading session is effectively data-free in the US with the never-market-moving International Trade report the only data on the calendar. Bon...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week very close to their lowest levels in more than 2 months after Fed Chair Powell essentially confirmed next week's rate h...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 3:22 PM
Weaker Start on Data and Fed Anxiety
Bonds got off to a weaker start in the new week on a variety of factors...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 11:21 AM
The importance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated for most of 2022. That's doubly true in November and December. The Nov 10th it...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 4:12 PM
Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data
Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following t...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 3:48 PM
As far as financial markets are concerned, a green Christmas is better than anything Bing Crosby could have crooned about. Green is the color that fla...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 12:30 PM
Change has been in the air since the November 10th CPI data. That single report did more than any other event to raise hopes for a big picture shift ...
Thu, Dec 1 2022, 4:05 PM
Mortgage rates had been in a holding pattern for nearly 3 weeks following the November 10th CPI inflation data. On that single day, the average 30yr ...
Thu, Dec 1 2022, 3:15 PM
Bonds Look Like They're Expecting Good News
We came into the day with a disclaimer about modest losses still...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today, but barring a major market reversal overnight, could be even lower tomorrow. It's fairly rare to be able t...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 4:25 PM
Powell Shows Up With Holiday Cheer For Bonds
While it's not technically a holiday week, we are in the midst ...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 1:13 PM
The combination of this morning's ADP employment data and the preliminary GDP revision pushed yields slightly higher after a flat overnight session. ...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 4:47 PM
It's been hard to find an interesting new angle on mortgage rates over the past 2+ weeks. They've been remarkably flat during that time after falling...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 4:33 PM
Issuance Sets The Tone and Keeps Bonds Range-Bound
Bonds have now spent more than 2 weeks locked inside a ve...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 9:49 AM
Corporate debt issuance is a net negative for bonds. There was a lull in issuance heading into Thanksgiving. With traders snapping out of holiday mo...
Mon, Nov 28 2022, 4:31 PM
Excitement, volatility, non-stop action... concepts that have absolutely nothing to do with mortgage rate movement over the course of the past two wee...
Mon, Nov 28 2022, 12:20 PM
Bonds were effectively closed for a 4-day weekend starting with Thanksgiving last Thursday. True, Friday was technically open for half a day, but vol...
Fri, Nov 25 2022, 9:11 AM
MBS live will be operating in "holiday light" mode today. The weekly newsletter is on holiday but will be back next week. Commentary and alerts will...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 3:42 PM
Bond markets will be closed for Thanksgiving tomorrow. That means mortgage lenders won't be publishing new rates. While markets are technically open...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 3:26 PM
Rates Recover Nicely After Fed Minutes
Today was the only day of the holiday-shortened week with any meaning...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 11:04 AM
We'd be the first to advocate taking Thanksgiving week trading momentum with a grain of salt, so this morning's discussion is less about drawing conne...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 3:35 PM
Rates are driven by bonds and mortgage rates are driven by mortgage-backed bonds. These bonds trade in the open market all day every day. Mortgage l...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 3:25 PM
Light Participation Limits MBS Gains as Treasuries Shrug Off Weak Auction
Today's 7yr Treasury auction was o...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 10:38 AM
Welcome to the bond market on Thanksgiving week in a year with the fastest rate spike in 4 decades, driven by inflation. This year, it just so happen...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 3:41 PM
Random, Inconsequential Volatility Driven by Holiday Week Trading Conditions
No sooner did we finish reading...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 3:12 PM
Mortgage rates made their biggest recent move (and their biggest single day move ever) 2 Thursday's ago after a key report showed inflation was lower ...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 9:51 AM
Whereas humans might feel sleepy after a big holiday meal, the bond market often feels that way for the entire holiday week. Thanksgiving week is one...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:59 PM
Modest Losses But Uneventful in The Bigger Picture
'Tis the season for the bond market to enter holiday trad...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:37 PM
There's no question that last week was an exciting one for rates. On Wednesday, the average 30yr fixed was fairly close to the highest levels since 20...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 11:37 AM
One unfortunate side effect of the general hyperfocus on inflation as the biggest issue facing markets is that bonds have been able to bounce from one...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 5:18 PM
If you'd like to get the quick scoop and be on your way, here you go: the big move in rates happened last Thursday when the average 30yr fixed dropped...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 4:10 PM
Weaker Today, But Still in Solid Territory Despite Fed Push-Back
Bonds lost a bit of ground overnight and th...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 10:15 AM
After spending the first 3 days of the week attempting to moderately extend the gains, bonds are finding some resistance today. Comments from St. Lou...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 3:43 PM
Decent Rally Despite Strong Retail Sales and Hawkish Fed Speakers
It was an interesting day for the bond mar...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 3:09 PM
The mortgage landscape is very interesting at the moment. On any given day, some lenders are moving higher, others are moving lower, and the rest are...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 11:43 AM
The day is getting off to an interesting start as stronger Retail Sales data initially pushed yields higher. That weakness lasted for less than half ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:57 PM
1 Step Back and 1 Step Forward So Far This Week
Bonds made solid gains overnight, largely following a rally ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:31 PM
Let's talk about the current state of mortgage rates. Before we do, some housekeeping: the following pertains to averages across multiple lenders. T...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 11:06 AM
Today kicks off with the Producer Price Index painting a similar picture to last week's CPI data. Specifically, monthly wholesale inflation dropped 0...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:56 PM
If you're just getting caught up, last Thursday was one for the record books--at least when it comes to the daily records that exist going back to 200...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:14 PM
The Best Half Point MBS Sell-Off
On probably any other day, a half point sell-off in MBS would be bad new...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 12:02 PM
In case you missed Thursday's trading session last week, it was epic--one of the biggest single-day rallies on record and the biggest drop in mortgage...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:19 PM
Biggest Rally in Over a Decade After CPI Overdelivers
You may have been tired of hearing just how important ...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:11 PM
Heading into this week, we knew that Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be critically important. It did not disappoint. CPI is one of two ke...
