Wed, Apr 26 2023, 3:37 PM
Bonds Follow First Republic News Cycle; MBS Underperform
First Republic Bank (FRC) remains in focus as a tra...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 11:23 AM
On the heels of yesterday's weak earnings, First Republic was back in the news this morning with reports that it's exploring a fire sale that would in...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds move for a variety of reasons, but one of the most basic is due to their function as a...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 4:29 PM
Risk Aversion Returns. Bonds Like It
First Republic's weaker earnings set the tone in the overnight session ...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 11:17 AM
Weaker earnings from a few notable names, including First Republic Bank... Weaker economic outlooks at home and abroad... Debt ceiling trepidation......
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 4:07 PM
While the news media bonfire on the recent LLPA tweak is only getting started, it's time for us to shift gears back to boring old mortgage rates (if y...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Should Have Taken The 3-Day Weekend!
Every so often, the bond market has a Monday that does absolutely nothi...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 1:05 PM
The bond market remains in an aggressively sideways holding pattern as traders wait for economic data and events that have enough street cred to meani...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 5:06 PM
Seemingly overnight, the internet is awash with news regarding a "new," unfair tax on mortgage borrowers with higher credit scores. Some have gone so ...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 5:01 PM
From Slightly Stronger to Slightly Weaker After PMI Data
The "data dependent" theme kept on rockin' all week...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 1:06 PM
Bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory and made some gains early. The 9:45am PMI data was the only item on the calendar and we'd consider...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 4:36 PM
As is typical on any given Thursday, many media outlets are citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. This week's installment suggests rates are highe...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 10:36 AM
The bond market is certainly in a lull in terms of highly consequential data and events. It will be almost a full two weeks before the next Fed meeti...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 4:52 PM
Mortgage rates had been just over 7% at the beginning of March. Then the failure of Silicon Valley Bank kicked off a mini banking crisis that; when c...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 4:43 PM
Bonds Battle Back After Threatening The Range Yet Again
If yesterday looked like a challenge to the prevaili...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 11:54 AM
The bond market is nothing if not willing to react to economic data these days. After all, that data will add up to a very big revelation regarding t...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates had a calmer day on Tuesday compared to Monday with the average lender only moving up by less than an eighth of a percent. Lenders who...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 4:42 PM
Super Sideways After AM Volatility
It turned out to be an intensely uneventful day for the bond market after...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 12:34 PM
In a week without an obvious focus or flashpoint for the bond market, it wouldn't be too surprising to see traders fall back on a range-trading strate...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 4:52 PM
After bottoming out at the lowest levels in months in the first week of April, mortgage rates have been rising fairly quickly. As of this afternoon, ...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 4:35 PM
Frustratingly Persistent Selling Pressure in Bonds
Bonds got off to a rocky start well before the domestic s...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 12:31 PM
If you had to reduce the past few weeks of bond market movement to the most basic of explanations, you might say that the jobs report on April 7th led...
Fri, Apr 14 2023, 3:57 PM
Does E-Commerce Surge Help Explain Friday's Sell-Off?
The day began with a puzzler: bonds sold off abruptly ...
Fri, Apr 14 2023, 12:32 PM
Perhaps there's some recency bias in play, but we're hard pressed to remember a big, obvious bond market sell-off in response to a big miss in Retail ...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 5:34 PM
There are several ways to get an idea of where mortgage rates are on any given day, but if that day is a Thursday, you're most likely to get that idea...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 5:16 PM
Longer Term Rates Lose Ground Despite Softer Inflation
Today's initial focus was on the big drop in Producer...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 9:26 AM
If only the bond market cared as much about producer prices as it does for consumer prices! The latter had a fine showing yesterday with CPI coming i...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 4:25 PM
If we could only blame one thing for the huge jump in interest rates seen since early 2022, it would be inflation. That fact led to a high degree of ...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 4:11 PM
Mixed Reactions to CPI and Fed Minutes
This morning's "as-expected" inflation data was very well received by...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 10:44 AM
The importance of economic reports like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated in the current environment. Case in point, this month's i...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates didn't do much today (the average lender drifted microscopically, and Wednesday's CPI data has infinitely more power to move the needle...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:29 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Wednesday morning brings the most consequential economic data of the next several weeks in t...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 12:19 PM
With the global financial market mostly firing on all cylinders after the various closures of the holiday weekend, the post-NFP defensiveness remains ...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 4:00 PM
Unofficially Still Waiting For The Week to Begin
Bonds took today to get caught up after an unconventional h...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates put in a great performance last week--especially if you stopped paying attention on Thursday. At that time, it was the best weekly dro...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 12:34 PM
The juxtaposition of an uncharacteristically early close on Friday, an important nonfarm payrolls release, and widespread holiday closures in European...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 4:58 PM
Interest rates were remarkably calm in the last week of March. The market was in the process of shifting focus from the banking sector back to economi...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 3:03 PM
Straightforward Selling After Jobs Data; CPI Up Next
While it's possible to find a few folks on the internet...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 11:53 AM
This morning's jobs report was very close to perfectly in line with forecasts. While the job count declined from last month, the report was strong ov...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates put in a solid performance so far this week with substantial declines to the lowest levels in months as of yesterday afternoon. Thursd...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 4:32 PM
Weeklong Rally Levels Off Ahead of Jobs Report
10yr yields began the week over 3.5% and rallied more than 20...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 12:04 PM
The tone of Wednesday's trading was a bit different than the previous two days. All 3 featured motivation for lower rates/yields from the economic da...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 4:16 PM
Rates Rally Cautiously After ISM Services Data
On the approach, today's ISM Services PMI looked like the 2nd...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 3:53 PM
It seems like only a few weeks ago that the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was surging up to 7% from 6% just a few weeks earlier. In fact, it doesn...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 11:03 AM
Apart from Friday's jobs report, this morning's ISM Services (or "non-manufacturing") data was the week's most relevant market mover in terms of sched...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:44 PM
Downbeat Data Primes The Pump For Shift
Tuesday's Job Openings report combined with Monday's ISM Manufacturi...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:35 PM
As long as we're talking about the best case scenario conforming 30yr fixed mortgage rate, the average lender officially hit 2-month lows today, just ...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 11:17 AM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory as they followed European yields higher overnight. But the domestic session is looking up thanks to JOLTS dat...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today as investors reacted to economic data that showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Institute for Supply ...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 3:49 PM
Downbeat Data Puts Downward Pressure on Rates
Although there was some cause for concern in the overnight tra...
