Tue, Apr 19 2016, 9:23 AM
bond markets still holding the range, but pressure is increasing
momentum studies are close to confirming negative shift
Tradeflows , technic...
Tue, Apr 19 2016, 4:22 PM
Today could have been better and worse.
Bright note: 10yr yields still holding under 1.80, mortgage rates are unchanged.
Sour note: 10's bar...
Mon, Apr 18 2016, 10:13 AM
2 separate narratives this week: market movement and housing data
tall order for housing data to drive market movement, except in extreme cases
...
Mon, Apr 18 2016, 5:26 PM
Most of last week's trading pushed rates slightly higher (i.e. short positions)
Short positions were covered before the weekend, helping rates fall...
Fri, Apr 15 2016, 9:31 AM
One explanation for bonds' recently negative trend could have to do with stocks
Not a direct correlation, but big-picture developments could affe...
Thu, Apr 14 2016, 8:29 AM
Positive trend in bonds that began in mid March is over
a break above 1.80% in 10yr yields would reinforce creation of new negative trend
CPI ...
Thu, Apr 14 2016, 4:20 PM
European bond markets helped push Treasuries weaker overnight
10yr yields hovered near 1.80%, the upper end of the recent range
Once again, econ...
Wed, Apr 13 2016, 8:30 AM
The recent downtrend is broken
The slightly broader sideways range is now close to being broken
Retail Sales may decide the fate of the range
...
Wed, Apr 13 2016, 5:23 PM
Momentum was weaker into the morning
European bond gains helped Treasuries hold under supportive ceiling
Stocks kept arguing for bond weakness, ...
Tue, Apr 12 2016, 9:22 AM
What's a Bund and why does it matter? (Hint: the benchmark for European bond markets)
Bunds and Treasuries threatening to bounce to high side of...
Tue, Apr 12 2016, 5:39 PM
Stocks and oil still questionable as primary motivators for bonds
European bonds and Treasuries suffered a tradeflow/technical reversal
Stocks a...
Mon, Apr 11 2016, 9:10 AM
Week gets off to slow start with limited data and events on Mon
Tuesday brings several Fed speakers, but not much data
Data ramps up by Wed with...
Mon, Apr 11 2016, 4:21 PM
Bonds were weaker overnight and lost more ground early
intermediate range boundaries held (1.755 in 10yr yields) as a ceiling
Bonds came back q...
Fri, Apr 8 2016, 9:10 AM
Light data day in the springtime: trading may be more about housekeeping than making any new bets on big-picture momentum
Trend has been positive f...
Fri, Apr 8 2016, 4:51 PM
Treasuries were under pressure from a correction in European markets (stocks and bond yields higher) overnight
MBS and Treasuries opened noticeably...
Thu, Apr 7 2016, 9:23 AM
There's a lot of attention being paid to oil right now
There have been moments of correlation between oil and bond yields
How much of the relati...
Thu, Apr 7 2016, 5:30 PM
European stock weakness/bond strength ruled the day
Treasuries, stocks, oil, all followed Europe until Europe closed, then went their own ways
G...
Wed, Apr 6 2016, 9:22 AM
Bonds were weaker into the March 16th FOMC meeting, but that marked a turning point
It also marked a turning point for European bond markets, which...
Wed, Apr 6 2016, 4:58 PM
Bonds weaker WAY before Fed Minutes
Oil, stocks and European bonds hurt Treasuries overnight
Oil kept pressure on with 10:30am inventory data ...
Tue, Apr 5 2016, 9:13 AM
The past few days of consolidation had a bullish tilt
Meaning: when yields broke out of a narrowing pattern, it was slightly more likely to be a p...
Tue, Apr 5 2016, 5:28 PM
Not only have bonds confirmed the recent move back into "the range," they've kept going strong
10yr yields hit 1.72, down 4.2bps, Fannie 3.0s up to...
Mon, Apr 4 2016, 9:19 AM
Bonds continue to defy critics with 10yr yields in the 1.7's into Q2
We can't really say "it's stocks" anymore
Oil is still part of the motivati...
Mon, Apr 4 2016, 7:01 PM
MBS and Treasuries both relatively flat on the day; light volume too
Boston Fed's Rosengren struck a hawkish tone (headwind #1)
Corporate bond i...
Fri, Apr 1 2016, 8:30 AM
bonds have obviously been 'up to something' since Yellen's speech
it could be that traders are showing their hands early for the next momentum move...
Fri, Apr 1 2016, 6:48 PM
MBS and Treasuries both end nearly unchanged after some intraday volatility
10's traded a range of 1.762 to 1.814. Fannie 3.0s 102-17 to 102-24
...
Thu, Mar 31 2016, 9:46 AM
Month-end means bond traders are adjusting portfolios to match a published index
The index was a bit less friendly than expected yesterday, and bon...
Thu, Mar 31 2016, 5:37 PM
No NFP anxiety, markets are all about preparing for April
Traders think stocks will suffer and bonds will pick up the slack
Dovish Yellen helped...
Wed, Mar 30 2016, 8:23 AM
Yellen rally set off positive technicals
"Technicals" refers to mathematical interpretation of market movement based only on the previous market mo...
Wed, Mar 30 2016, 5:44 PM
markets continue repricing rate hike expectations
shorter duration debt wins (2yr Treasuries beating 10yr)
MBS are shorter duration than 10yr, s...
Tue, Mar 29 2016, 9:00 AM
On these NFP weeks, one of the concepts we routinely discuss is that of the " pre-NFP lead-off. " Just to make sure we're on the same page, the "lead...
Tue, Mar 29 2016, 5:42 PM
Translating Yellen's speech today: not only is the Fed "data dependent," but it doesn't take much to deter hikes and even to contemplate ways to ease ...
Mon, Mar 28 2016, 8:49 AM
As bond markets continued to grind sideways, seemingly unable to (or "not yet willing?") to break below some key technical levels (see chart), this we...
Mon, Mar 28 2016, 7:12 PM
Quiet overnight trading session with European markets closed
Economic data was mixed and left bond markets generally uninspired
Treasuries and M...
Thu, Mar 24 2016, 8:32 AM
Bond markets close early (2pm ET), and market participation should reflect the rush for the exits
Translation: liquidity and volume should die down...
Thu, Mar 24 2016, 5:10 PM
10yr yields ended the week right where they began it (1.90%)
Same can't be said of MBS, Fannie 3.0s lost ground on the week
Durable Goods data h...
Wed, Mar 23 2016, 9:08 AM
After breaking above 1.92%, technicals get interesting for 10yr yields
Bigger-picture uptrends in rates at risk of continuing
Last full day of t...
Wed, Mar 23 2016, 6:40 PM
Much like yesterday, bond markets experienced a somewhat abrupt intraday swing that lacked overt motivation. This time, however, rates were heading...
Tue, Mar 22 2016, 8:47 AM
Last week introduced the possibility that March's bearish trend was reversing
yesterday's weakness failed to confirm that reversal
It's still po...
Tue, Mar 22 2016, 6:33 PM
Treasuries gain overnight on flight-to-safety surrounding Brussels terror attacks
rates struggled to break overnight lows in morning trading
Af...
Mon, Mar 21 2016, 8:37 AM
SIFMA recommended early close for markets ( 2pm ET) on Thu and full close on Friday
Friday is NOT a bank holiday
Bond markets in equivocal ter...
Fri, Mar 18 2016, 9:23 AM
No econ data on tap apart from Consumer Sentiment
Oil surging, how much does it matter?
Bonds trying to confirm technical bounce, but not quite ...
Fri, Mar 18 2016, 4:30 PM
5 straight days of lower closing yields in Treasuries
Almost 5 straight days of higher closes for MBS
In both cases, 90%+ of the gains followed ...
Thu, Mar 17 2016, 8:40 AM
The day begins with bond markets holding yesterday's post-Fed rally, and adding to the gains overnight. In fact, we've seen enough of an improvement ...
Thu, Mar 17 2016, 4:42 PM
Stocks and oil closed at 2016 highs
Corporate bond supply also added pressure on Treasuries/MBS
But bonds held their ground with MBS outperformi...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 8:31 AM
The Fed began its 2-day policy setting meeting yesterday and, by now, is likely already well on its way to finalizing the text of today's announceme...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 5:07 PM
Bond markets rallied rather impressively today following the FOMC Announcement. Actually, it was really the Fed's economic projections (aka, the "d...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Dece...
Tue, Mar 15 2016, 8:28 AM
In the early overnight session, the policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was a bit of a downer for global risk markets. It wasn't that it...
Tue, Mar 15 2016, 5:37 PM
Bonds start strong after Bank of Japan Announcement'
Further improvements after weak Retail Sales revision
The gains served as a cue for traders...
Mon, Mar 14 2016, 9:03 AM
Seeing as how March would end up being the worst month for bond markets since the taper tantrum if the current pace of selling continues, and wherea...
MBS Market Alerts
