Wed, Mar 30 2016, 8:23 AM
Yellen rally set off positive technicals
"Technicals" refers to mathematical interpretation of market movement based only on the previous market mo...
Wed, Mar 30 2016, 5:44 PM
markets continue repricing rate hike expectations
shorter duration debt wins (2yr Treasuries beating 10yr)
MBS are shorter duration than 10yr, s...
Tue, Mar 29 2016, 9:00 AM
On these NFP weeks, one of the concepts we routinely discuss is that of the " pre-NFP lead-off. " Just to make sure we're on the same page, the "lead...
Tue, Mar 29 2016, 5:42 PM
Translating Yellen's speech today: not only is the Fed "data dependent," but it doesn't take much to deter hikes and even to contemplate ways to ease ...
Mon, Mar 28 2016, 8:49 AM
As bond markets continued to grind sideways, seemingly unable to (or "not yet willing?") to break below some key technical levels (see chart), this we...
Mon, Mar 28 2016, 7:12 PM
Quiet overnight trading session with European markets closed
Economic data was mixed and left bond markets generally uninspired
Treasuries and M...
Thu, Mar 24 2016, 8:32 AM
Bond markets close early (2pm ET), and market participation should reflect the rush for the exits
Translation: liquidity and volume should die down...
Thu, Mar 24 2016, 5:10 PM
10yr yields ended the week right where they began it (1.90%)
Same can't be said of MBS, Fannie 3.0s lost ground on the week
Durable Goods data h...
Wed, Mar 23 2016, 9:08 AM
After breaking above 1.92%, technicals get interesting for 10yr yields
Bigger-picture uptrends in rates at risk of continuing
Last full day of t...
Wed, Mar 23 2016, 6:40 PM
Much like yesterday, bond markets experienced a somewhat abrupt intraday swing that lacked overt motivation. This time, however, rates were heading...
Tue, Mar 22 2016, 8:47 AM
Last week introduced the possibility that March's bearish trend was reversing
yesterday's weakness failed to confirm that reversal
It's still po...
Tue, Mar 22 2016, 6:33 PM
Treasuries gain overnight on flight-to-safety surrounding Brussels terror attacks
rates struggled to break overnight lows in morning trading
Af...
Mon, Mar 21 2016, 8:37 AM
SIFMA recommended early close for markets ( 2pm ET) on Thu and full close on Friday
Friday is NOT a bank holiday
Bond markets in equivocal ter...
Fri, Mar 18 2016, 9:23 AM
No econ data on tap apart from Consumer Sentiment
Oil surging, how much does it matter?
Bonds trying to confirm technical bounce, but not quite ...
Fri, Mar 18 2016, 4:30 PM
5 straight days of lower closing yields in Treasuries
Almost 5 straight days of higher closes for MBS
In both cases, 90%+ of the gains followed ...
Thu, Mar 17 2016, 8:40 AM
The day begins with bond markets holding yesterday's post-Fed rally, and adding to the gains overnight. In fact, we've seen enough of an improvement ...
Thu, Mar 17 2016, 4:42 PM
Stocks and oil closed at 2016 highs
Corporate bond supply also added pressure on Treasuries/MBS
But bonds held their ground with MBS outperformi...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 8:31 AM
The Fed began its 2-day policy setting meeting yesterday and, by now, is likely already well on its way to finalizing the text of today's announceme...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 5:07 PM
Bond markets rallied rather impressively today following the FOMC Announcement. Actually, it was really the Fed's economic projections (aka, the "d...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Dece...
Tue, Mar 15 2016, 8:28 AM
In the early overnight session, the policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was a bit of a downer for global risk markets. It wasn't that it...
Tue, Mar 15 2016, 5:37 PM
Bonds start strong after Bank of Japan Announcement'
Further improvements after weak Retail Sales revision
The gains served as a cue for traders...
Mon, Mar 14 2016, 9:03 AM
Seeing as how March would end up being the worst month for bond markets since the taper tantrum if the current pace of selling continues, and wherea...
Mon, Mar 14 2016, 5:15 PM
Calm Monday, for the most part
Bonds probably took cues from oil prices
Bonds bounced when oil bounced (around noon)
Net effect was modest ga...
Fri, Mar 11 2016, 8:48 AM
Bond markets have been partying pretty hard so far in 2016, though the party has been dying down since mid February . That process began with st...
Fri, Mar 11 2016, 5:59 PM
Pointless, confused trading day for multiple markets
Bonds struggled sideways at first, then broke into weaker territory for no apparent reason
...
Thu, Mar 10 2016, 8:38 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) broke with tradition to some extent, as it announced several policy changes in the 7:45am press release. This relea...
Thu, Mar 10 2016, 5:26 PM
ECB unveils bigger-than-expected package of rate cuts and QE purchases
Then Draghi says the magic words (in a nutshell: no more rate cuts)
Stock...
Wed, Mar 9 2016, 8:58 AM
Yesterday's fears: that the gains were just a byproduct of trading positions
Particularly, bond bears were covering bets on higher rates
Trader...
Tue, Mar 8 2016, 8:52 AM
The past week has been unpleasant for bond markets, to say the least. Even before that, the strong bounce off the long-term lows in mid-February fo...
Tue, Mar 8 2016, 5:33 PM
Treasuries much stronger overnight, following weak Chinese trade data, strong Japanese bond market gains, and decent European bond market gains
Bon...
Mon, Mar 7 2016, 8:41 AM
Bond markets obviously had a pretty rough go of it last week, having broken out of the sideways trend that followed early February's long-term lows. ...
Mon, Mar 7 2016, 5:42 PM
Big rally in oil brings stocks back up and keeps pressure on bonds
Corporate debt supply also hurt Treasuries specifically, but earlier in the day ...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 8:23 AM
"Stop me if you've heard this one before. There's this epic long-term inflection point defined by 10yr yield levels 1.84-1.86. It stretches back to 2...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 5:53 PM
Jobs report was good, mostly (242k vs 190k forecast, but some internal weakness)
10yr yields breaking 1.84 support is bad
10yr yields holding un...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 8:31 AM
Let's not overcomplicate things too much when it comes to the 2016 bond market rally. In fact, let's move in the other direction for a moment and con...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 5:28 PM
Bonds slightly weaker overnight; low volume; lack of inspiration
Domestic trading stayed very flat until 11:20am
Bonds rallied sharply but bri...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 7:31 AM
We're getting into some tricky territory with respect to market behavior and predicting the future. 2016 has been fairly unidimensional so far. B...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 5:40 PM
Treasuries flat overnight, despite various cues in other markets
Bonds move weaker following ADP data, but damage immediately contained
Rest of ...
Tue, Mar 1 2016, 7:31 AM
Whether you fancy a tug-o-war analogy, or perhaps even a good old case of dueling banjos, US bond markets have been in the middle of a relative batt...
Tue, Mar 1 2016, 5:44 PM
Stock rally hurts bonds
Even before that, corporate issuance added pressure
New March trading position-taking (and ultimately, profit-taking and...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 9:12 AM
The relationship between short and long term yields is an important indicator for bond markets and the broader economy. 10yr yields are almost alwa...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 5:41 PM
It was a tremendously calm day for bond markets. In fact, 10yr yields held a range of 1.73 to 1.768--the narrowest of the entire year . Still, the ...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 8:30 AM
Stocks and oil have had a big impact on bonds, but they're not the only story
Central bank rhetoric has been helping Treasuries hold ground when st...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 7:41 PM
After yesterday's strong performance it would have been nice to at least hold those gains. If that had happened, the bigger picture would look decid...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 7:34 AM
Over the past few days, we've seen bigger-than-normal intraday swings in bond markets. The day began with one trend in force only to end with tradi...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 5:32 PM
Data overlooked as bonds react to stocks/oil early
Bonds then ignore stock/oil rally later in the day and hold ground at stronger levels
Could ...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 9:09 AM
10's have been bouncing at 1.71, secretly, overnight
It's breaking this morning and the next battle is clearly implied by early February trading pa...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 5:44 PM
Bonds start strong. Good MBS gains and a few positive reprices early
Everything went south as oil jumped off lows
Stocks jumped even higher and...
Tue, Feb 23 2016, 8:52 AM
Bond markets have been slightly weaker over the past few days, but overall, still arguably trading sideways inside a narrow range. Looked at in the m...
MBS Market Alerts
