Tue, May 19 2015, 7:34 AM
The Fed is yet to come this week and that could be the first good opportunity for bonds to decide on their next move from the past few days of consoli...
Tue, May 19 2015, 5:24 PM
Someone wants us to think that rates are heading abruptly higher. Well, to be fair, it's not so much about wanting anyone to think anything. It has ...
Tue, May 19 2015, 1:22 PM
Remember the "QE-on vs QE-off" trading in 2013? In an extremely overt way, stocks and bonds rallied and sold together based on constantly evolving ...
Mon, May 18 2015, 12:54 PM
Last Monday saw an unpleasant reversal of 2 days of gains heading into the previous weekend. Now this Monday is going through some of the same motion...
Mon, May 18 2015, 7:34 AM
If you've been out for 3-4 weeks, welcome back. Bonds have been selling off rather abruptly and now we're hoping for a bounce. We thought we had one...
Mon, May 18 2015, 5:16 PM
After Thursday and Friday of last week mimicked the previous Thursday and Friday, it was fair to wonder if we'd get another ugly Monday today. Whil...
Fri, May 15 2015, 12:54 PM
Be warned that the following reduces a complex, multifaceted issue to one of its individual components. It's merely an examination of this one comp...
Fri, May 15 2015, 7:34 AM
Things were looking up as of yesterday's close. After weeks of selling off with only a brief 1.5 day correction last Thursday and Friday, bonds fina...
Fri, May 15 2015, 6:09 PM
Remember last Thursday and Friday? Those were pretty good! It sure looked like bonds had had enough weakness for a while and might start to consolid...
Thu, May 14 2015, 11:04 AM
This will largely be a rehash of the morning update that MBS Live members have already seen, as we haven't been treated to the morning volatility ...
Thu, May 14 2015, 7:34 AM
If bond markets are going to make something happen with their recent attempts to establish support at the weakest levels of 2015, it would be nice if ...
Thu, May 14 2015, 4:05 PM
In recent weeks, we've increasingly discussed the concept of " supply ." This has largely been driven by the ramp up in corporate debt issuance creat...
Wed, May 13 2015, 12:46 PM
The headline is the extend of the story this morning. We began the day in positive territory, but have been pulled into negative territory by Europea...
Wed, May 13 2015, 7:34 AM
Who's to say if the next correction will be like the last correction which lasted all of 1.5 days before bonds got blasted again? But even the bigges...
Wed, May 13 2015, 4:02 PM
No love for bond markets...
That's the only possible takeaway after a day where technicals are stacking up in a friendly way, Retail Sales and seve...
Tue, May 12 2015, 7:34 AM
In some ways and in some instances , past precedent can have some sort of predictive value. 9 times out of 10 though, it's only the sort of thing ...
Tue, May 12 2015, 5:17 PM
Who can forget this classic quip when asked why rates are higher: "more sellers than buyers?" OK, so maybe that's not so classic, depending on your...
Tue, May 12 2015, 1:29 PM
Bonds were horribly weaker yet again overnight, and the same old factors are in play. These aren't glamorous, satisfying to understand, or easy to ex...
Mon, May 11 2015, 7:34 AM
Bond markets sold-off too far and too fast heading into last week's jobs report. In fact, even by Thursday morning (overnight), the sell-off had reac...
Mon, May 11 2015, 5:42 PM
As I check my mental inventory of recent headline titles, I find it interesting and scary that the only other times that compare historically have bee...
Mon, May 11 2015, 1:39 PM
This isn't the most enjoyable way to begin the new week, but it was one of the options suggested by recent trends. Specifically, this option was the ...
Fri, May 8 2015, 7:34 AM
Today is probably the most interesting of the year when it comes to long term implications for domestic bond markets. If you think about it, things m...
Fri, May 8 2015, 4:54 PM
The game is not over. We didn't just miraculously win against all odds. The sell-off that's plagued bond markets for the past 2 weeks can't yet be...
Fri, May 8 2015, 1:27 PM
If you observe nothing else from anything I've written this week, it should be the calls for a technical correction on Wednesday and Thursday. Those ...
Thu, May 7 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's morning commentary contained a chart and discussion on Treasury yields breaking above the upper bollinger band for 5 consecutive days....
Thu, May 7 2015, 5:33 PM
Before the Fed wrapped up QE purchases last year, the amount of movement we saw in the first few minutes of the day would have bordered on catastrophi...
Thu, May 7 2015, 1:35 PM
Move over Pontiac. Bond market volatility is driving excitement.
While that may be one of the worst s entences I've ever written, it has the red...
Wed, May 6 2015, 7:34 AM
The sell-off is getting old , literally and figuratively. Of course it's old in the sense that no one likes it, but what about it's objective age?
...
Wed, May 6 2015, 5:16 PM
Bonds sold off again. Don't look so surprised.
Yes, ADP data was weaker than expected, but it didn't matter due to pervasively weaker momentum ...
Wed, May 6 2015, 1:38 PM
You'll notice an ongoing theme over the past few weeks as we talk about the selling pressure in bond markets, and that is that this sell-off should be...
Tue, May 5 2015, 7:34 AM
Everywhere you look, pundits are slamming the bond market , both at home and abroad. This is usually the first sign that we're about to bounce back ...
Tue, May 5 2015, 6:11 PM
Bond markets sold off again today, though it wasn't necessarily destined to be the case. In other words, it actually took several events working to...
Tue, May 5 2015, 1:22 PM
Ever have one of those days where it seems that the odds are hopelessly stacked against you? That's the sort of week and a half that bond markets hav...
Mon, May 4 2015, 7:34 AM
After rising to the highest side of the long term trend last week, yields have a chance to explode higher, or re-commit to the range this week. "Expl...
Mon, May 4 2015, 5:29 PM
The last 5 days have been ugly for bond markets--not quite as the beginning of February, but this time around, we aren't bouncing off multi-year lows....
Mon, May 4 2015, 1:28 PM
With UK and Japan bank holidays, cash Treasuries didn't really have an overnight session (London and Tokyo are the hubs for Treasury trading during th...
Fri, May 1 2015, 12:16 PM
Treasuries and MBS are at the weakest levels in exactly a month and a half. The time frame preceding the March FOMC Announcement saw markedly weaker ...
Fri, May 1 2015, 7:32 AM
Yesterday's morning headline asked if the recent move was weak enough that we should expect a bounce or so weak that it suggested further selling. In...
Fri, May 1 2015, 4:35 PM
Today wasn't necessarily a worst-case-scenario for bond markets, but it was reading from the same script. It's the version of the story where the e...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 12:37 PM
During yesterday's bond market rout, a lousy reading on domestic data (GDP) effectively did nothing to stem the tide of overnight weakness. Today, th...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 7:32 AM
There are two ways to approach the weakness in bond markets over the past two days, and before we discuss them, I should warn you that I don't know ...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 4:43 PM
After defying overnight pressure from European bond markets to open in stronger territory, domestic bond markets were soon facing their own pressure ...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 7:34 AM
Atonal... without tone. That's what bond markets have been for nearly 6 weeks following the last FOMC Announcement. While today's is not the variety...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 5:07 PM
Heading into today, the afternoon's FOMC Announcement had the first right of refusal when it came to moving markets. As it happened, it was the morni...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 1:13 PM
GDP was super weak (0.2 vs 1.0 forecast) and all of the important internal components were weaker as well. So naturally, bond markets rallied on the ...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 7:33 AM
We've made it! This will be the last day of the excruciatingly narrow range that we began discussing more than 2 weeks ago (the range itself is at le...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 4:47 PM
It was a fairly ugly day for bond markets. MBS are down nearly a half point. Most lenders repriced negatively at least once, and rate sheets are a...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 1:35 PM
Consumer Confidence numbers were much weaker than expected this morning at 95.2 vs 102.5 forecast. Normally, this would be a big benefit for bonds. ...
Mon, Apr 27 2015, 7:32 AM
After a generally quiet week just passed, the week ahead offers significantly more market movement potential. There's more economic data, and several...
Mon, Apr 27 2015, 4:37 PM
As has been the case on so many Monday's lately, today would have been better-used as a 3rd day of the weekend. Fannie 3.0s were 102-09 at their lowe...
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