Wed, May 6 2015, 7:34 AM
The sell-off is getting old , literally and figuratively. Of course it's old in the sense that no one likes it, but what about it's objective age?
...
Wed, May 6 2015, 5:16 PM
Bonds sold off again. Don't look so surprised.
Yes, ADP data was weaker than expected, but it didn't matter due to pervasively weaker momentum ...
Wed, May 6 2015, 1:38 PM
You'll notice an ongoing theme over the past few weeks as we talk about the selling pressure in bond markets, and that is that this sell-off should be...
Tue, May 5 2015, 7:34 AM
Everywhere you look, pundits are slamming the bond market , both at home and abroad. This is usually the first sign that we're about to bounce back ...
Tue, May 5 2015, 6:11 PM
Bond markets sold off again today, though it wasn't necessarily destined to be the case. In other words, it actually took several events working to...
Tue, May 5 2015, 1:22 PM
Ever have one of those days where it seems that the odds are hopelessly stacked against you? That's the sort of week and a half that bond markets hav...
Mon, May 4 2015, 7:34 AM
After rising to the highest side of the long term trend last week, yields have a chance to explode higher, or re-commit to the range this week. "Expl...
Mon, May 4 2015, 5:29 PM
The last 5 days have been ugly for bond markets--not quite as the beginning of February, but this time around, we aren't bouncing off multi-year lows....
Mon, May 4 2015, 1:28 PM
With UK and Japan bank holidays, cash Treasuries didn't really have an overnight session (London and Tokyo are the hubs for Treasury trading during th...
Fri, May 1 2015, 12:16 PM
Treasuries and MBS are at the weakest levels in exactly a month and a half. The time frame preceding the March FOMC Announcement saw markedly weaker ...
Fri, May 1 2015, 7:32 AM
Yesterday's morning headline asked if the recent move was weak enough that we should expect a bounce or so weak that it suggested further selling. In...
Fri, May 1 2015, 4:35 PM
Today wasn't necessarily a worst-case-scenario for bond markets, but it was reading from the same script. It's the version of the story where the e...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 12:37 PM
During yesterday's bond market rout, a lousy reading on domestic data (GDP) effectively did nothing to stem the tide of overnight weakness. Today, th...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 7:32 AM
There are two ways to approach the weakness in bond markets over the past two days, and before we discuss them, I should warn you that I don't know ...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 4:43 PM
After defying overnight pressure from European bond markets to open in stronger territory, domestic bond markets were soon facing their own pressure ...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 7:34 AM
Atonal... without tone. That's what bond markets have been for nearly 6 weeks following the last FOMC Announcement. While today's is not the variety...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 5:07 PM
Heading into today, the afternoon's FOMC Announcement had the first right of refusal when it came to moving markets. As it happened, it was the morni...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 1:13 PM
GDP was super weak (0.2 vs 1.0 forecast) and all of the important internal components were weaker as well. So naturally, bond markets rallied on the ...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 7:33 AM
We've made it! This will be the last day of the excruciatingly narrow range that we began discussing more than 2 weeks ago (the range itself is at le...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 4:47 PM
It was a fairly ugly day for bond markets. MBS are down nearly a half point. Most lenders repriced negatively at least once, and rate sheets are a...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 1:35 PM
Consumer Confidence numbers were much weaker than expected this morning at 95.2 vs 102.5 forecast. Normally, this would be a big benefit for bonds. ...
Mon, Apr 27 2015, 7:32 AM
After a generally quiet week just passed, the week ahead offers significantly more market movement potential. There's more economic data, and several...
Mon, Apr 27 2015, 4:37 PM
As has been the case on so many Monday's lately, today would have been better-used as a 3rd day of the weekend. Fannie 3.0s were 102-09 at their lowe...
Mon, Apr 27 2015, 1:08 PM
Domestic bond markets are as quiet as quiet can be today. The silence was most deafening at the start of the overnight session where the range was ...
Fri, Apr 24 2015, 12:24 PM
The most notable feature of today's trading session has been the weaker than expected components of the Durable Goods data. In other words, the hea...
Fri, Apr 24 2015, 7:33 AM
After the March 18th FOMC Announcement, bond markets rallied. 10yr yields went from 2.05 to 1.90 on that Wednesday. The following day, they sold of...
Fri, Apr 24 2015, 5:33 PM
Up until this morning's Durable Goods data, bonds looked ready to go either way. MBS and Treasuries were slightly weaker, somewhere around halfway ba...
Thu, Apr 23 2015, 12:27 PM
From yesterday's first reprice alert on MBS Live at 9:34am ET:
"There is also the ongoing theme of corporate bond issuance. Several more deals ...
Thu, Apr 23 2015, 7:34 AM
Over the years, we've discussed the concept of "history repeating" in terms of similar market themes playing out, both qualitatively and quantitativel...
Thu, Apr 23 2015, 5:16 PM
With 10yr yields at 1.952, we're certainly not out of the woods yet, but we can at least hold out some hope of exiting the woods. That wasn't such ...
Wed, Apr 22 2015, 12:56 PM
A noncommittal, sideways grind only has so much noncommittal and sideways in it before breaking out. This one was already overdue and already showing...
Wed, Apr 22 2015, 7:33 AM
Rates been in a narrow, noncommittal, sideways range for weeks. The last two days were especially barren in that they lacked any economic data, whi...
Wed, Apr 22 2015, 4:45 PM
By now, today's broken range is fairly old news. It's not only old news in the sense that it's been covered today, but indeed the POTENTIAL range b...
Tue, Apr 21 2015, 12:54 PM
10yr yields and MBS prices both made it to the weakest levels in 3 days--each threatening a break of technical support levels. In terms of 10yr yield...
Tue, Apr 21 2015, 7:32 AM
One nice thing about the current unwillingness on the part of bond markets to break through resistance levels is that they've been similarly unwilli...
Tue, Apr 21 2015, 5:09 PM
For a second day, bond markets gave up a modest amount of ground. To put the losses in context, yields are heading out at 1.91 in 10yr Treasuries. T...
Mon, Apr 20 2015, 7:34 AM
Although the Fed denies it, conventional wisdom suggests that major policy changes tend to be announced at the Fed meetings that include the post-anno...
Mon, Apr 20 2015, 5:23 PM
It was a struggle to observe anything interesting in bond markets today. That environment usually allows 'tradeflow considerations' to rise to the ...
Mon, Apr 20 2015, 1:40 PM
Nothing of note has transpired or conspired to move bond markets today. It's another Monday without economic data, meaningful headlines, or strong pa...
Fri, Apr 17 2015, 7:32 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before. There's this epic long-term inflection point defined by 10yr yield levels 1.84-1.86. It stretches back to...
Fri, Apr 17 2015, 5:24 PM
All of today's drama--if you can call it that--came in the form of curve trading. That refers to traders adjusting bond market holdings by selling on...
Fri, Apr 17 2015, 1:26 PM
If this happens to be your very first time reading this site, you should know that we've been talking a lot about a few things. First is the fact t...
Thu, Apr 16 2015, 11:03 AM
This will be the third day in a row where bond markets have begun the day in stronger territory only to give back some of the gains as the day conti...
Thu, Apr 16 2015, 7:33 AM
The past two trading sessions have been highly informative for bond markets. As we've been discussing almost incessantly, there is good reason for bo...
Thu, Apr 16 2015, 4:03 PM
The trading day started out timidly enough, but with a bit of an ominous tone . This had to do with the fact the German Bunds made new all-time lows...
Wed, Apr 15 2015, 7:33 AM
Up until yesterday, everything since NFP had been fairly boring in terms of bond market activity. While there were some instances of moderate movemen...
Wed, Apr 15 2015, 5:02 PM
Markets have been doing a good job of reacting to economic data so far this week. That was a good thing again this morning as the data was weaker in g...
Wed, Apr 15 2015, 1:00 PM
Bond markets' willingness to accept guidance from economic data is in full swing. As discussed in the Day Ahead , this morning offered several more ...
Tue, Apr 14 2015, 12:53 PM
There was a better chance that bond markets would react to today's Retail Sales data despite the lack of reaction to the last reading ( reasons discu...
Tue, Apr 14 2015, 7:34 AM
Last time we saw a Retail Sales report, the forecast called for a move back to +0.3 after the worst 2-month stretch since the onset of the financial c...
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