Thu, Apr 2 2015, 4:42 PM
Bond markets sold off today, and when you see the longer term chart below, it's hard to be too upset about it. The chart not only serves to provide ...
Wed, Apr 1 2015, 7:34 AM
As the new quarter begins, let's pause to consider where we should be looking for bond market motivation. What has been motivating rate movements so ...
Wed, Apr 1 2015, 5:33 PM
Today went off without a hitch for bond markets. A rally in European debt overnight (strong German bond auction) helped Treasuries and MBS start th...
Wed, Apr 1 2015, 1:02 PM
Granted the day is not over yet, but at this point, a full-scale reversal of the morning's momentum is unlikely. As expected, with month-end out of t...
Tue, Mar 31 2015, 12:43 PM
After a relatively uneventful overnight session, bond markets began the day in slightly stronger territory. The shorter end of the yield curve began ...
Tue, Mar 31 2015, 7:34 AM
Today is the last day of the month and quarter (or the fiscal year-end for many domestic entities or the entire nation of Japan). That makes the end...
Tue, Mar 31 2015, 5:12 PM
It's rare that I'll decide to include a chart with a shorter maturity yield curve constituent in the Day Ahead. In this morning's case, that happened...
Mon, Mar 30 2015, 7:34 AM
As is often the case, this week has the dual distinction of hosting 'month-end' as well as nonfarm payrolls. Until recently, the ECB was almost alw...
Mon, Mar 30 2015, 5:16 PM
For MBS, today was substantially similar to Friday, with a narrow but positive trading range and little fanfare surrounding any headline event. That'...
Mon, Mar 30 2015, 1:14 PM
The first two days of this week stand a good chance to see the momentum driven not by the events that transpire, but by the trades that must be made b...
Fri, Mar 27 2015, 7:34 AM
There's been a lot of talk about GDP recently, but it's important to keep in mind that most of it has to do revised GDP estimates for the first quar...
Fri, Mar 27 2015, 4:55 PM
It's that time again. Or, at least it will be next Friday. After 2 months in a row of painful NFP reactions in bond markets, the big jobs report is ...
Fri, Mar 27 2015, 1:05 PM
With the exception of only a few trades during a few minutes, Fannie 3.0 MBS prices have remained in a range of 101-28 to 101-29 this morning. That'...
Thu, Mar 26 2015, 12:02 PM
It's been a strange week for domestic bond markets so far. Just 2 short days ago, bonds were rallying with a seeming disregard for negative cues fr...
Thu, Mar 26 2015, 7:24 AM
Will the Fed raise rates? Is economic data sliding? Are stocks and bonds more interested in trading the rate hike or the data? All of these were fa...
Thu, Mar 26 2015, 4:51 PM
Ever since bond markets failed to respond positively to yesterday morning's exceptionally weak Durable Goods report, things have been almost exclusiv...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 12:14 PM
Today's trading has offered an interesting development or two. The first was the reaction to the Durable Goods data. It was significantly weaker t...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday morning, we discussed the fact that bond markets needed to make additional gains beyond recent technical floors, or risk sending the signal...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 5:41 PM
It began as just another day in a 12-day winning streak for bond markets that had seen 10yr yields recover 40bps peak to trough. Actually, "just an...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 12:17 PM
A frequent topic of interest over the past few years--and especially recently--is the trickle down effect from European bond markets to mortgage rat...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's trading activity, while light, was a welcome addition to Friday's. The two combined to completely reverse the somewhat scary negative bou...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 4:13 PM
While mileage may vary depending on the lender, many are getting close to levels not seen since Thursday Feb 5th, a day before the NFP report that kic...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 12:16 PM
Bond markets are having an exceptionally uneventful morning, trading in a narrow, slightly stronger range for the most part. This was the case righ...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 7:34 AM
Following last week's Fed meeting, we had two successive days of subdued trading, each trading "inside" the previous session's range. Bonds can go ei...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 5:38 PM
While there is some variation depending on the part of the country and the school district, this week is Spring Break for quite a few people, and if...
Fri, Mar 20 2015, 12:29 PM
As we head into the afternoon hours, we can look back on an overnight and early domestic session that was largely uneventful and slightly positive ...
Fri, Mar 20 2015, 7:29 AM
Considering all the build up to Wednesday's FOMC events, the rally that followed was a breath of fresh air . Not 12 hours later and bonds were alrea...
Fri, Mar 20 2015, 4:58 PM
It was a calm and light trading day right from the outset today. Without options expirations, volume would have been the lowest of the year in bond...
Thu, Mar 19 2015, 7:34 AM
First of all, there is no true "non-Fed-related" way to look at yesterday's rally. For US markets, it had almost everything to do with the Fed. But ...
Thu, Mar 19 2015, 4:18 PM
It's always a bit disheartening when the day after an awesome rally ends up erasing a good-sized chunk of the gains. That was the case today as the c...
Thu, Mar 19 2015, 1:38 PM
The day began well enough, with only moderate weakness in domestic bond markets. Moreover, 10yr yields were doing a great job of holding on to import...
Wed, Mar 18 2015, 12:29 PM
Domestic bond markets began the day in stronger territory, and you can tell they're not too happy about it. If Treasuries and MBS had their way, th...
Wed, Mar 18 2015, 7:34 AM
Today is Fed day and naturally, that's where 100% of the focus has been and will be. Markets are convinced that the Fed will remove the word "patient...
Wed, Mar 18 2015, 5:23 PM
Most of what would have been written to recap today's events was accidentally written this morning before they happened. The article I'm referring to...
Tue, Mar 17 2015, 7:34 AM
The sense that financial markets are circling the wagons in preparation for tomorrow's FOMC events is palpable. Yesterday ended up being the lightes...
Tue, Mar 17 2015, 4:56 PM
What a boring 3 days! The only thing that's happened for bond markets is an utterly mechanical trend back toward Thursday morning's low yields and/or...
Tue, Mar 17 2015, 1:01 PM
As expected, not much is going on today as the focus remains on tomorrow's FOMC events. Overnight volumes and participation levels were light for the...
Mon, Mar 16 2015, 11:00 AM
It's been an uneventful day so far for bond markets, but a noticeably stronger one. The overnight session got thing off to a positive start as Treasu...
Mon, Mar 16 2015, 7:34 AM
It's an easy answer to be sure, but this time it's probably the best one. Financial markets, and especially bonds, stand the best chance to be inspir...
Mon, Mar 16 2015, 4:24 PM
The most important thing to understand about today's market movements is that by writing this sentence (or reading it, in your case), we've already gi...
Fri, Mar 13 2015, 12:26 PM
In the context of this week's range, today has been well-contained and fairly mild in terms of volatility. After hitting the best levels of the wee...
Fri, Mar 13 2015, 7:33 AM
Time for bond markets to start thinking even more seriously than they already are. 2014 and Jan 2015 were great. No complaints! We rode the epic w...
Fri, Mar 13 2015, 4:28 PM
Bond market trading drove home the point that the current week was over today and that it had been over ever since the post-Retail Sales rally failed ...
Thu, Mar 12 2015, 12:55 PM
It's been a mostly good morning for bond markets. The overnight session saw modest gains during European hours, and Treasuries even managed to hold...
Thu, Mar 12 2015, 7:34 AM
There have been no significant instances of economic data this week until today. These sorts of things happen, and it's usually Thursday that ends up...
Thu, Mar 12 2015, 5:15 PM
Trading levels began the day in better territory this morning after a strong overnight session for Treasuries. It wasn't so much that they gained a...
Wed, Mar 11 2015, 7:34 AM
The first two days of this week were "nice." They got us back in line with what had been the weakest levels of the year before last Friday. In oth...
Wed, Mar 11 2015, 5:08 PM
German Bunds dropped to yet another new all-time low today, hitting 0.193 at one point. The Euro plummeted and stocks sold modestly. All of the ab...
Wed, Mar 11 2015, 1:21 PM
Today's 10yr auction was pretty good , although it required a bit of weakness leading up to it in order to generate the relatively strong result. Th...
Tue, Mar 10 2015, 12:52 PM
Some magical combination of new QE tradeflows and Greek drama (surprisingly enough) has driven German Bund yields well into new all-time lows today. ...
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