Mon, Apr 27 2015, 1:08 PM
Domestic bond markets are as quiet as quiet can be today. The silence was most deafening at the start of the overnight session where the range was ...
Fri, Apr 24 2015, 12:24 PM
The most notable feature of today's trading session has been the weaker than expected components of the Durable Goods data. In other words, the hea...
Fri, Apr 24 2015, 7:33 AM
After the March 18th FOMC Announcement, bond markets rallied. 10yr yields went from 2.05 to 1.90 on that Wednesday. The following day, they sold of...
Fri, Apr 24 2015, 5:33 PM
Up until this morning's Durable Goods data, bonds looked ready to go either way. MBS and Treasuries were slightly weaker, somewhere around halfway ba...
Thu, Apr 23 2015, 12:27 PM
From yesterday's first reprice alert on MBS Live at 9:34am ET:
"There is also the ongoing theme of corporate bond issuance. Several more deals ...
Thu, Apr 23 2015, 7:34 AM
Over the years, we've discussed the concept of "history repeating" in terms of similar market themes playing out, both qualitatively and quantitativel...
Thu, Apr 23 2015, 5:16 PM
With 10yr yields at 1.952, we're certainly not out of the woods yet, but we can at least hold out some hope of exiting the woods. That wasn't such ...
Wed, Apr 22 2015, 12:56 PM
A noncommittal, sideways grind only has so much noncommittal and sideways in it before breaking out. This one was already overdue and already showing...
Wed, Apr 22 2015, 7:33 AM
Rates been in a narrow, noncommittal, sideways range for weeks. The last two days were especially barren in that they lacked any economic data, whi...
Wed, Apr 22 2015, 4:45 PM
By now, today's broken range is fairly old news. It's not only old news in the sense that it's been covered today, but indeed the POTENTIAL range b...
Tue, Apr 21 2015, 12:54 PM
10yr yields and MBS prices both made it to the weakest levels in 3 days--each threatening a break of technical support levels. In terms of 10yr yield...
Tue, Apr 21 2015, 7:32 AM
One nice thing about the current unwillingness on the part of bond markets to break through resistance levels is that they've been similarly unwilli...
Tue, Apr 21 2015, 5:09 PM
For a second day, bond markets gave up a modest amount of ground. To put the losses in context, yields are heading out at 1.91 in 10yr Treasuries. T...
Mon, Apr 20 2015, 7:34 AM
Although the Fed denies it, conventional wisdom suggests that major policy changes tend to be announced at the Fed meetings that include the post-anno...
Mon, Apr 20 2015, 5:23 PM
It was a struggle to observe anything interesting in bond markets today. That environment usually allows 'tradeflow considerations' to rise to the ...
Mon, Apr 20 2015, 1:40 PM
Nothing of note has transpired or conspired to move bond markets today. It's another Monday without economic data, meaningful headlines, or strong pa...
Fri, Apr 17 2015, 7:32 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before. There's this epic long-term inflection point defined by 10yr yield levels 1.84-1.86. It stretches back to...
Fri, Apr 17 2015, 5:24 PM
All of today's drama--if you can call it that--came in the form of curve trading. That refers to traders adjusting bond market holdings by selling on...
Fri, Apr 17 2015, 1:26 PM
If this happens to be your very first time reading this site, you should know that we've been talking a lot about a few things. First is the fact t...
Thu, Apr 16 2015, 11:03 AM
This will be the third day in a row where bond markets have begun the day in stronger territory only to give back some of the gains as the day conti...
Thu, Apr 16 2015, 7:33 AM
The past two trading sessions have been highly informative for bond markets. As we've been discussing almost incessantly, there is good reason for bo...
Thu, Apr 16 2015, 4:03 PM
The trading day started out timidly enough, but with a bit of an ominous tone . This had to do with the fact the German Bunds made new all-time lows...
Wed, Apr 15 2015, 7:33 AM
Up until yesterday, everything since NFP had been fairly boring in terms of bond market activity. While there were some instances of moderate movemen...
Wed, Apr 15 2015, 5:02 PM
Markets have been doing a good job of reacting to economic data so far this week. That was a good thing again this morning as the data was weaker in g...
Wed, Apr 15 2015, 1:00 PM
Bond markets' willingness to accept guidance from economic data is in full swing. As discussed in the Day Ahead , this morning offered several more ...
Tue, Apr 14 2015, 12:53 PM
There was a better chance that bond markets would react to today's Retail Sales data despite the lack of reaction to the last reading ( reasons discu...
Tue, Apr 14 2015, 7:34 AM
Last time we saw a Retail Sales report, the forecast called for a move back to +0.3 after the worst 2-month stretch since the onset of the financial c...
Tue, Apr 14 2015, 4:29 PM
Today's Retail Sales data stood a better chance to move markets than last time. Not only did the data move markets today, but it did so in a surpri...
Mon, Apr 13 2015, 12:42 PM
There was a good article last week titled Take Off Friday and Monday Because Most Bond Traders Already Do . Most of the gist can be gleaned from the...
Mon, Apr 13 2015, 7:34 AM
N OTE: Fannie and Freddie 30yr fixed MBS 'rolled' over the weekend. The post-roll price of Fannie 3.0 MBS was 102-02. That will look like a 10/32nd...
Mon, Apr 13 2015, 5:16 PM
If you're tuning in to this recap to find out if something interesting happened today or if something is worth discussing with colleagues or clients, ...
Fri, Apr 10 2015, 12:50 PM
Nothing is happening. This was the theme of the Day Ahead, and nothing has changed. In fact, just hours after making fun of a Bloomberg article that...
Fri, Apr 10 2015, 7:32 AM
There's a problem in the world of financial market commentary and journalism. It has to do with man's constant search to find meaning in all things ...
Fri, Apr 10 2015, 4:36 PM
It was an intensely soporific trading session today. Bonds started out in positive territory and then began a slow, steady grind back toward unchan...
Thu, Apr 9 2015, 12:26 PM
MBS are being dragged down enough for some lenders to be considering negative reprices , but the brunt of this morning's weakness is being born by Tr...
Thu, Apr 9 2015, 7:34 AM
Looking back on the past few days of trading activity, we see that absolutely nothing has happened since Monday's quick correction following Friday's ...
Thu, Apr 9 2015, 4:59 PM
Since mid-day on Monday, domestic bond markets hadn't done much at all. Despite a slightly expanding range, the momentum was sideways as both higher ...
Wed, Apr 8 2015, 12:42 PM
The overnight session was calm. Japanese trading helped Treasuries a bit, and European hours did some damage. Bonds started the domestic session in ...
Wed, Apr 8 2015, 7:34 AM
There are no significant economic reports out this morning, leaving the focus clearly on the afternoon. First up will be the 10yr Treasury auction...
Wed, Apr 8 2015, 5:23 PM
Considering 10yr auctions and FOMC Minutes typically happen on Wednesdays, it's not uncommon for them to be sharing the stage. In today's case, they ...
Tue, Apr 7 2015, 12:33 PM
To whatever extent liquidity still exists in the bond market, it returned today after holiday-related absences reduced participation to the lowest lev...
Tue, Apr 7 2015, 7:34 AM
While it's never good or safe to dismiss market movement as less legitimate due to a lack of volume, it's worth keeping in mind that the movement is m...
Tue, Apr 7 2015, 3:57 PM
The morning and early afternoon hours were mildly disconcerting for bond markets as recent losses extended. Even so, most of the losses were in befor...
Mon, Apr 6 2015, 7:34 AM
Insanely huge beats or misses in NFP data are always interesting. They seem to have an uncanny ability to completely change the tenor of conversati...
Mon, Apr 6 2015, 4:46 PM
In terms of market movement and new developments, there's nothing to add to the mid-day update . Bond markets were under mild pressure at the outset...
Mon, Apr 6 2015, 1:10 PM
The overnight session was predictably uneventful with most of the world still out of the office for the Easter holiday. Plenty of market participants...
Fri, Apr 3 2015, 12:02 PM
NOTE : This is the mid-day and the 'recap' as bond markets are not only closing early (noon ET), but were effectively closed after the initial NFP rea...
Fri, Apr 3 2015, 7:34 AM
It's always a struggle to think of something to say on the morning of the jobs report before the jobs report actually comes out. It will be whatever ...
Thu, Apr 2 2015, 12:54 PM
Yesterday's recap noted an increased risk of weakness today due to the technical bounce at 1.852. Here it is.
No, really, today is pretty much ...
Thu, Apr 2 2015, 7:28 AM
There's another day to go before NFP, but today is no slouch . Not only are trading levels currently evaluating a bounce at a long term inflection p...
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