Tue, Apr 14 2015, 4:29 PM
Today's Retail Sales data stood a better chance to move markets than last time. Not only did the data move markets today, but it did so in a surpri...
Mon, Apr 13 2015, 12:42 PM
There was a good article last week titled Take Off Friday and Monday Because Most Bond Traders Already Do . Most of the gist can be gleaned from the...
Mon, Apr 13 2015, 7:34 AM
N OTE: Fannie and Freddie 30yr fixed MBS 'rolled' over the weekend. The post-roll price of Fannie 3.0 MBS was 102-02. That will look like a 10/32nd...
Mon, Apr 13 2015, 5:16 PM
If you're tuning in to this recap to find out if something interesting happened today or if something is worth discussing with colleagues or clients, ...
Fri, Apr 10 2015, 12:50 PM
Nothing is happening. This was the theme of the Day Ahead, and nothing has changed. In fact, just hours after making fun of a Bloomberg article that...
Fri, Apr 10 2015, 7:32 AM
There's a problem in the world of financial market commentary and journalism. It has to do with man's constant search to find meaning in all things ...
Fri, Apr 10 2015, 4:36 PM
It was an intensely soporific trading session today. Bonds started out in positive territory and then began a slow, steady grind back toward unchan...
Thu, Apr 9 2015, 12:26 PM
MBS are being dragged down enough for some lenders to be considering negative reprices , but the brunt of this morning's weakness is being born by Tr...
Thu, Apr 9 2015, 7:34 AM
Looking back on the past few days of trading activity, we see that absolutely nothing has happened since Monday's quick correction following Friday's ...
Thu, Apr 9 2015, 4:59 PM
Since mid-day on Monday, domestic bond markets hadn't done much at all. Despite a slightly expanding range, the momentum was sideways as both higher ...
Wed, Apr 8 2015, 12:42 PM
The overnight session was calm. Japanese trading helped Treasuries a bit, and European hours did some damage. Bonds started the domestic session in ...
Wed, Apr 8 2015, 7:34 AM
There are no significant economic reports out this morning, leaving the focus clearly on the afternoon. First up will be the 10yr Treasury auction...
Wed, Apr 8 2015, 5:23 PM
Considering 10yr auctions and FOMC Minutes typically happen on Wednesdays, it's not uncommon for them to be sharing the stage. In today's case, they ...
Tue, Apr 7 2015, 12:33 PM
To whatever extent liquidity still exists in the bond market, it returned today after holiday-related absences reduced participation to the lowest lev...
Tue, Apr 7 2015, 7:34 AM
While it's never good or safe to dismiss market movement as less legitimate due to a lack of volume, it's worth keeping in mind that the movement is m...
Tue, Apr 7 2015, 3:57 PM
The morning and early afternoon hours were mildly disconcerting for bond markets as recent losses extended. Even so, most of the losses were in befor...
Mon, Apr 6 2015, 7:34 AM
Insanely huge beats or misses in NFP data are always interesting. They seem to have an uncanny ability to completely change the tenor of conversati...
Mon, Apr 6 2015, 4:46 PM
In terms of market movement and new developments, there's nothing to add to the mid-day update . Bond markets were under mild pressure at the outset...
Mon, Apr 6 2015, 1:10 PM
The overnight session was predictably uneventful with most of the world still out of the office for the Easter holiday. Plenty of market participants...
Fri, Apr 3 2015, 12:02 PM
NOTE : This is the mid-day and the 'recap' as bond markets are not only closing early (noon ET), but were effectively closed after the initial NFP rea...
Fri, Apr 3 2015, 7:34 AM
It's always a struggle to think of something to say on the morning of the jobs report before the jobs report actually comes out. It will be whatever ...
Thu, Apr 2 2015, 12:54 PM
Yesterday's recap noted an increased risk of weakness today due to the technical bounce at 1.852. Here it is.
No, really, today is pretty much ...
Thu, Apr 2 2015, 7:28 AM
There's another day to go before NFP, but today is no slouch . Not only are trading levels currently evaluating a bounce at a long term inflection p...
Thu, Apr 2 2015, 4:42 PM
Bond markets sold off today, and when you see the longer term chart below, it's hard to be too upset about it. The chart not only serves to provide ...
Wed, Apr 1 2015, 7:34 AM
As the new quarter begins, let's pause to consider where we should be looking for bond market motivation. What has been motivating rate movements so ...
Wed, Apr 1 2015, 5:33 PM
Today went off without a hitch for bond markets. A rally in European debt overnight (strong German bond auction) helped Treasuries and MBS start th...
Wed, Apr 1 2015, 1:02 PM
Granted the day is not over yet, but at this point, a full-scale reversal of the morning's momentum is unlikely. As expected, with month-end out of t...
Tue, Mar 31 2015, 12:43 PM
After a relatively uneventful overnight session, bond markets began the day in slightly stronger territory. The shorter end of the yield curve began ...
Tue, Mar 31 2015, 7:34 AM
Today is the last day of the month and quarter (or the fiscal year-end for many domestic entities or the entire nation of Japan). That makes the end...
Tue, Mar 31 2015, 5:12 PM
It's rare that I'll decide to include a chart with a shorter maturity yield curve constituent in the Day Ahead. In this morning's case, that happened...
Mon, Mar 30 2015, 7:34 AM
As is often the case, this week has the dual distinction of hosting 'month-end' as well as nonfarm payrolls. Until recently, the ECB was almost alw...
Mon, Mar 30 2015, 5:16 PM
For MBS, today was substantially similar to Friday, with a narrow but positive trading range and little fanfare surrounding any headline event. That'...
Mon, Mar 30 2015, 1:14 PM
The first two days of this week stand a good chance to see the momentum driven not by the events that transpire, but by the trades that must be made b...
Fri, Mar 27 2015, 7:34 AM
There's been a lot of talk about GDP recently, but it's important to keep in mind that most of it has to do revised GDP estimates for the first quar...
Fri, Mar 27 2015, 4:55 PM
It's that time again. Or, at least it will be next Friday. After 2 months in a row of painful NFP reactions in bond markets, the big jobs report is ...
Fri, Mar 27 2015, 1:05 PM
With the exception of only a few trades during a few minutes, Fannie 3.0 MBS prices have remained in a range of 101-28 to 101-29 this morning. That'...
Thu, Mar 26 2015, 12:02 PM
It's been a strange week for domestic bond markets so far. Just 2 short days ago, bonds were rallying with a seeming disregard for negative cues fr...
Thu, Mar 26 2015, 7:24 AM
Will the Fed raise rates? Is economic data sliding? Are stocks and bonds more interested in trading the rate hike or the data? All of these were fa...
Thu, Mar 26 2015, 4:51 PM
Ever since bond markets failed to respond positively to yesterday morning's exceptionally weak Durable Goods report, things have been almost exclusiv...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 12:14 PM
Today's trading has offered an interesting development or two. The first was the reaction to the Durable Goods data. It was significantly weaker t...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday morning, we discussed the fact that bond markets needed to make additional gains beyond recent technical floors, or risk sending the signal...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 5:41 PM
It began as just another day in a 12-day winning streak for bond markets that had seen 10yr yields recover 40bps peak to trough. Actually, "just an...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 12:17 PM
A frequent topic of interest over the past few years--and especially recently--is the trickle down effect from European bond markets to mortgage rat...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's trading activity, while light, was a welcome addition to Friday's. The two combined to completely reverse the somewhat scary negative bou...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 4:13 PM
While mileage may vary depending on the lender, many are getting close to levels not seen since Thursday Feb 5th, a day before the NFP report that kic...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 12:16 PM
Bond markets are having an exceptionally uneventful morning, trading in a narrow, slightly stronger range for the most part. This was the case righ...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 7:34 AM
Following last week's Fed meeting, we had two successive days of subdued trading, each trading "inside" the previous session's range. Bonds can go ei...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 5:38 PM
While there is some variation depending on the part of the country and the school district, this week is Spring Break for quite a few people, and if...
Fri, Mar 20 2015, 12:29 PM
As we head into the afternoon hours, we can look back on an overnight and early domestic session that was largely uneventful and slightly positive ...
Fri, Mar 20 2015, 7:29 AM
Considering all the build up to Wednesday's FOMC events, the rally that followed was a breath of fresh air . Not 12 hours later and bonds were alrea...
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