Tue, Jan 6 2015, 7:33 AM
From an old-school, conventional market-watching point of view, there is significant data on tap today in the form of ISM Non-Manufacturing at 10am. ...
Tue, Jan 6 2015, 5:35 PM
Both Treasuries and MBS hit their best closing levels since May 2013 today as the global flight-to-safety continues. Make no mistake that this move h...
Tue, Jan 6 2015, 1:33 PM
Overnight Treasury trading was positive, largely due to spillover from a much more forceful move in European bond markets. Multiple asset classes a...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 12:55 PM
Heading into Christmas, US bond markets began pulling away from European markets in a mostly unfavorable way. In other words, Treasuries and MBS were...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 7:33 AM
This week promises to be nothing like the last 2. Market participation already began ramping back up on Friday and that should be exponentially tru...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 5:03 PM
2014 was a decisively flatter year for the Treasury yield curve. That means that longer-term (7, 10, 30yr) rates were constantly moving lower relat...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 11:29 AM
Surprisingly and refreshingly, today's ISM Manufacturing data has been a clear source of motivation for trading activity today. After it came out a...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 7:33 AM
I like to periodically offer a reminder on something I wish I'd understood sooner when it comes to financial markets. While we do indeed live in a hi...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 3:35 PM
It's been an 'up and down' trading session, but the 'ups' have been the clear winners and that looks increasingly solidified as trading winds down f...
Wed, Dec 31 2014, 12:38 PM
In the same vein as December 26th, this Mid-Day report might end up standing as the Recap due to the stability of the day's range and the mere 90 mi...
Wed, Dec 31 2014, 7:33 AM
The only thing more tedious than of my technical explanations are those journalistic elements that you just KNOW are coming. Let me explain. Imagi...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 12:26 PM
Trading conditions continue to be slow during these holiday weeks. This greases the skids for bigger movements regardless of motivation. Last Wednes...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 7:33 AM
'Grexit' was an overused term--mostly in 2012--that referred (shockingly) to a "Greek exit" from the Eurozone. I hate overused fad jargon just as muc...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 4:53 PM
Unlike most Tuesday's, today actually saw a decreased level of participation in bond markets. Presumably this is due to yesterday offering more rele...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 7:27 AM
The end of the month, quarter, or year brings additional trading considerations and we have all three this week. Some measure of "year-end" trading ...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 4:37 PM
Nothing happened this afternoon to add any information or market momentum already in place this morning. The morning events were covered in greater ...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 2:03 PM
It's been a pretty simple trading session. Overall, participation remains much lower than normal, but has picked up from Friday's levels (which were ...
Fri, Dec 26 2014, 8:23 AM
The day after Christmas falls on a Friday this year. Incidentally, that's today, and that fact puts us in a position to even more firmly declare it a...
Fri, Dec 26 2014, 7:36 PM
As foreseen, foretold, and prophesied, today's trading session was the slowest of the year for bond markets. It wasn't even close either. 10yr Futur...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 11:20 AM
The last potentially notable event on today's calendar is the 7yr Treasury Auction coming up at 11:30am. 7yr auctions aren't typically something mark...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 7:16 AM
The thing about the big holiday weeks (Thanksgiving and Christmas) is that even though we can discount most of what's happening in terms of volatility...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 1:58 PM
NOTE: Bond markets close at 2pm Eastern today and normal trading hours resume on Friday.
There was not much to write home about in today's session,...
Tue, Dec 23 2014, 7:32 AM
On just about any other day of the year, today's schedule of economic events would be well worth a few moments of consideration, and certainly capable...
Tue, Dec 23 2014, 4:56 PM
Measures of bond market volatility spiked this morning WELL before the 8:30am GDP reading. Of course a +5.0 GDP vs a 4.3% forecast will get all kinds...
Tue, Dec 23 2014, 1:00 PM
Despite an abundance of seemingly relevant economic data, volumes are merely on pace with yesterday, which was the slowest session in more than 3 mo...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 11:58 AM
It's a real snooze-fest out there, folks. Volumes were already dropping to nearly half of their recent average by Friday, and will be lucky to brea...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 7:33 AM
The last two weeks of December are not a time where most market participants are thinking about trading opportunistically. Rather, there tends to b...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 3:47 PM
It's rare that the day's MBS RECAP will be published this early in the day (and of course, I'll put out an update if things change significantly), but...
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 12:42 PM
The past two days saw a decisive bounce in Treasuries precipitated by what might have been a decisive bounce in European bond markets. As of this the...
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 7:43 AM
Congratulations! You've reached the end of 2014 in bond markets. Everything from here on out is simply the epilogue to an already-concluded story....
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 4:28 PM
Whether today had ended up positive or negative, the assessment would be the same. It strains credulity to consider, but when human beings that are n...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 12:14 PM
From time to time, the best way to recap market events through mid-day will be to revisit things that have already been written. Here's the first: M...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 7:49 AM
Where does yesterday's FOMC Announcement leave us in terms of the rate outlook? The same place we were before the FOMC Announcement!
The only thi...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 4:09 PM
Depending on where you want to draw the line between the overnight and domestic sessions, nothing really happened today. Bond markets were basically...
Wed, Dec 17 2014, 12:46 PM
Treasuries once again broke away from the pack in the overnight session and moved higher in yield. Cues from related markets didn't suggest that wea...
Wed, Dec 17 2014, 7:33 AM
Today's FOMC Announcement at 2pm is a bit of a puzzler, because it has the capability to be one of the more important recent announcements. One reaso...
Wed, Dec 17 2014, 4:53 PM
Today's FOMC Announcement and ensuing press conference caused significant volatility (albeit, within a historically narrow range) for bond markets. O...
Tue, Dec 16 2014, 12:32 PM
To be clear, bond markets are still in strongly positive territory this morning, though they're off their best levels seen just after 7am.
Volatil...
Tue, Dec 16 2014, 7:32 AM
Bond markets lost ground yesterday, which is notable in the context of recent events because other markets didn't necessarily agree. By that, I mean ...
Tue, Dec 16 2014, 4:14 PM
As Fannie 3.5 MBS pushed over 104 and 10yr yields moved down toward 2%, it became increasingly clear that the bond market rally required an ever-larg...
Mon, Dec 15 2014, 12:18 PM
Naturally, most headlines continue to credit oil for everything that's happening everywhere. That may be true in a roundabout way, but it's a harder ...
Mon, Dec 15 2014, 7:32 AM
The conventional wisdom regarding falling knives is to avoid trying to catch them. 2014's bond yields have been a quintessential example. At each ...
Fri, Dec 12 2014, 12:51 PM
It's impossible to get away from oil headlines today. They're everywhere. Even smart people are succumbing to the temptation of oversimplifying the ...
Fri, Dec 12 2014, 7:32 AM
When the variables informing trading decisions are more confusing, more diverse, and/or more numerous than normal, there's one old standby to fall bac...
Fri, Dec 12 2014, 5:19 PM
Good news! It seems that--thanks to some magical domino effect having to do with oil--that this week's market movements can't do anything else but co...
Thu, Dec 11 2014, 12:18 PM
Bond markets had an uneventful overnight session for the most part. Heading into the 7am hour, yields improved to their lowest levels of the morning ...
Thu, Dec 11 2014, 7:33 AM
Bond markets seemingly rallied rather impressively yesterday. In other words, the magnitude of the gains and levels achieved would have been impres...
Thu, Dec 11 2014, 5:18 PM
With 10yr yields less than half a bp lower and Fannie 3.5s and 3.0s a mere 1 tick lower, we're effectively unchanged to end the day. That's a victor...
Wed, Dec 10 2014, 12:54 PM
"Leak" is definitely one of those words that, if you say it enough, it starts to sound funny. One way to hear it pretty reliably is to tune in to the...
Wed, Dec 10 2014, 7:32 AM
Late in November, I suggested that the first week of December would give us the information needed to identify the trend that would carry us into the ...
MBS Market Alerts
