Tue, Jan 20 2015, 12:02 PM
For bond markets, today has largely been about holding ground and retrenching. The most relevant example came during the overnight session--just befo...
Tue, Jan 20 2015, 7:32 AM
After trading in a narrow channel for the first three quarters of 2014, bond markets became increasingly volatile. The first three weeks of 2015 have...
Tue, Jan 20 2015, 4:28 PM
Anxiety and anticipation are in full supply as markets approach Thursday's exceptionally important ECB news. Last Friday, this anxiety took the form ...
Fri, Jan 16 2015, 7:40 AM
This chart was scaled based on everything that came before yesterday in order to see how big yesterday was by comparison. The red line is the Swiss F...
Fri, Jan 16 2015, 5:06 PM
Bond markets sold off today because they rallied so hard earlier this week. That is all*.
I mean, we could sit here and attempt to assign signific...
Fri, Jan 16 2015, 1:06 PM
Global financial markets have been engaged to the idea of sovereign QE from the European Central Bank for nearly a year. After yesterday's Swiss surp...
Thu, Jan 15 2015, 12:39 PM
The following is an excerpt from of an update that appeared this morning on MBS Live. Members will have already seen it.
All About the Franc, 'B...
Thu, Jan 15 2015, 7:33 AM
Yesterday was the most exciting day in bond markets in a long time. 10yr yields made it into the 1.7's, which had an altogether different feel than...
Thu, Jan 15 2015, 5:20 PM
When global financial markets are convulsing with uncertainty and anticipation, where can you find a safe, liquid place to park your money?
One ...
Wed, Jan 14 2015, 12:47 PM
It's a very simple, very awesome day so far for bond markets. The European Court of Justice news was great for peripheral nations (Italy, Spain, Po...
Wed, Jan 14 2015, 7:33 AM
By the time you read this, markets will already have had a chance to begin digesting the important preliminary assessment from the European Court of...
Wed, Jan 14 2015, 5:05 PM
10yr yields spent some time in the 1.7's today and Fannie 3.0s traded over 103. Those are two things that seemed outside the realm of possibility t...
Tue, Jan 13 2015, 12:11 PM
With the 10yr auction coming up in about an hour, yields find themselves slightly higher than yesterday's latest levels. Their first move overnight w...
Tue, Jan 13 2015, 7:31 AM
Yesterday morning, we discussed the technical outlook for bond markets in the context of "open options." In other words, the technical studies were...
Tue, Jan 13 2015, 5:03 PM
MBS and Treasuries both spent time trading on either side of unchanged today. The swings between the days highs and lows were bigger than normal , a...
Mon, Jan 12 2015, 12:26 PM
Stocks, oil, Euros, and other assets that bespeak growth and risk are weaker today while bond markets are stronger. The opposite was initially the ...
Mon, Jan 12 2015, 7:35 AM
In terms of the technical trends as of last week, domestic bond markets became more balanced by the end of the week. Before that, they were certainly...
Mon, Jan 12 2015, 5:14 PM
Treasuries were initially a bit weaker in the overnight session, but along with German Bunds, found their footing around 7am. MBS and Treasuries cros...
Fri, Jan 9 2015, 7:44 AM
Markets don't always read from a script. Beyond that, there just aren't many past examples of moves like the one at the beginning of 2015, but so far...
Fri, Jan 9 2015, 5:16 PM
European stocks tanked today. The move was underway within minutes of the morning's payrolls data which initially looked like it might give domestic ...
Fri, Jan 9 2015, 1:26 PM
It's been a surprisingly busy morning for financial markets, and very little of that has to do with NFP. Bonds were slightly stronger overnight and...
Thu, Jan 8 2015, 7:41 AM
At this point, it's getting more and more tempting to just give up the typical pre-NFP hullabaloo. I mean really, how many more "all eyes on NFP" hea...
Thu, Jan 8 2015, 4:12 PM
Dear HUD,
First of all, thanks for dropping annual MI. That's cool and all, but the way you're rolling this out is causing confusion. The Mortgag...
Thu, Jan 8 2015, 1:14 PM
Once again, bond markets find themselves in weaker territory simply due to the corrective forces that follow strong rallies, and once again, resilient...
Wed, Jan 7 2015, 12:28 PM
Domestic economic data, as expected, was passed over in favor of more meaningful forces. At the moment, those forces include Eurozone economic condit...
Wed, Jan 7 2015, 5:03 PM
It actually turned out to be a rather boring day for the parts of the bond market with which we normally concern ourselves. Treasuries and conformi...
Wed, Jan 7 2015, 4:49 AM
Think of all those times that we began discussing FOMC events days, weeks, and even months in advance. Indeed there may be no other greater market mo...
Tue, Jan 6 2015, 7:33 AM
From an old-school, conventional market-watching point of view, there is significant data on tap today in the form of ISM Non-Manufacturing at 10am. ...
Tue, Jan 6 2015, 5:35 PM
Both Treasuries and MBS hit their best closing levels since May 2013 today as the global flight-to-safety continues. Make no mistake that this move h...
Tue, Jan 6 2015, 1:33 PM
Overnight Treasury trading was positive, largely due to spillover from a much more forceful move in European bond markets. Multiple asset classes a...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 12:55 PM
Heading into Christmas, US bond markets began pulling away from European markets in a mostly unfavorable way. In other words, Treasuries and MBS were...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 7:33 AM
This week promises to be nothing like the last 2. Market participation already began ramping back up on Friday and that should be exponentially tru...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 5:03 PM
2014 was a decisively flatter year for the Treasury yield curve. That means that longer-term (7, 10, 30yr) rates were constantly moving lower relat...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 11:29 AM
Surprisingly and refreshingly, today's ISM Manufacturing data has been a clear source of motivation for trading activity today. After it came out a...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 7:33 AM
I like to periodically offer a reminder on something I wish I'd understood sooner when it comes to financial markets. While we do indeed live in a hi...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 3:35 PM
It's been an 'up and down' trading session, but the 'ups' have been the clear winners and that looks increasingly solidified as trading winds down f...
Wed, Dec 31 2014, 12:38 PM
In the same vein as December 26th, this Mid-Day report might end up standing as the Recap due to the stability of the day's range and the mere 90 mi...
Wed, Dec 31 2014, 7:33 AM
The only thing more tedious than of my technical explanations are those journalistic elements that you just KNOW are coming. Let me explain. Imagi...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 12:26 PM
Trading conditions continue to be slow during these holiday weeks. This greases the skids for bigger movements regardless of motivation. Last Wednes...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 7:33 AM
'Grexit' was an overused term--mostly in 2012--that referred (shockingly) to a "Greek exit" from the Eurozone. I hate overused fad jargon just as muc...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 4:53 PM
Unlike most Tuesday's, today actually saw a decreased level of participation in bond markets. Presumably this is due to yesterday offering more rele...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 7:27 AM
The end of the month, quarter, or year brings additional trading considerations and we have all three this week. Some measure of "year-end" trading ...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 4:37 PM
Nothing happened this afternoon to add any information or market momentum already in place this morning. The morning events were covered in greater ...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 2:03 PM
It's been a pretty simple trading session. Overall, participation remains much lower than normal, but has picked up from Friday's levels (which were ...
Fri, Dec 26 2014, 8:23 AM
The day after Christmas falls on a Friday this year. Incidentally, that's today, and that fact puts us in a position to even more firmly declare it a...
Fri, Dec 26 2014, 7:36 PM
As foreseen, foretold, and prophesied, today's trading session was the slowest of the year for bond markets. It wasn't even close either. 10yr Futur...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 11:20 AM
The last potentially notable event on today's calendar is the 7yr Treasury Auction coming up at 11:30am. 7yr auctions aren't typically something mark...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 7:16 AM
The thing about the big holiday weeks (Thanksgiving and Christmas) is that even though we can discount most of what's happening in terms of volatility...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 1:58 PM
NOTE: Bond markets close at 2pm Eastern today and normal trading hours resume on Friday.
There was not much to write home about in today's session,...
Tue, Dec 23 2014, 7:32 AM
On just about any other day of the year, today's schedule of economic events would be well worth a few moments of consideration, and certainly capable...
MBS Market Alerts
