Wed, Feb 25 2015, 7:34 AM
The answer to the question posed in the headline is "yes," both Yellen and Greece are moving markets. Unfortunately for the more traditional thinke...
Wed, Feb 25 2015, 5:44 PM
There are few situations that warrant more happiness or relief over what turned out to be a merely flat trading session in bond markets. Reason be...
Tue, Feb 24 2015, 7:33 AM
The Fed Chair's semi-annual congressional testimonies are always a hoot. That's where we get to see a delightful mix of politicians read what some ...
Tue, Feb 24 2015, 5:30 PM
If today wasn't a record in terms of positive reprice reports from MBS Live users, it was right up there. 44 have come through as yet, and it's n...
Tue, Feb 24 2015, 1:18 PM
There are a lot of moving parts to today's movement, and most of them working in synergy to benefit bond markets. The day began with Greece getting t...
Mon, Feb 23 2015, 12:58 PM
Despite Friday's volatile move into weaker territory, recent bond market trading decisions have been surprisingly logical. Arguably, we saw Friday ...
Mon, Feb 23 2015, 7:33 AM
The current week begins with what may amount to some simple housekeeping for the Eurozone as Greece submits the list of reforms it's been working on o...
Mon, Feb 23 2015, 5:15 PM
Perhaps the headlines did too good of a job of selling Friday's Greek news as something more definitive than it was. After all, most headlines were s...
Fri, Feb 20 2015, 12:21 PM
Did you catch the Day Ahead? It turned out to be pretty timely . Here it is if you need it:
MBS Day Ahead: Europe no Longer Fears Dominoes; Up...
Fri, Feb 20 2015, 7:32 AM
Things began to change in the Eurozone in 2013. That was when Cyprus and Italy were providing mild aftershocks following the bigger drama in 2010-2...
Fri, Feb 20 2015, 5:58 PM
I will have to be careful with how emphatically I convey today's volatility to friends and family. Anyone who doesn't follow markets as closely would...
Thu, Feb 19 2015, 7:34 AM
No, yesterday's FOMC Minutes weren't enough to change the fate of bond markets in and of themselves. They weren't even enough to get bond markets bac...
Thu, Feb 19 2015, 6:16 PM
When you get an instantaneous 7bp rally in 10yr yields following an FOMC communication, only to immediately bounce on the preexisting trendline and co...
Thu, Feb 19 2015, 1:24 PM
An 'inside day' refers to today's trading range happening completely INSIDE yesterday's trading range. The resulting lower-highs and higher lows be...
Wed, Feb 18 2015, 12:36 PM
What a quiet day it's been so far! Today's noncommittal sideways grind is the polar opposite of yesterday's steam-roller. This wasn't necessarily ...
Wed, Feb 18 2015, 6:18 PM
It was a nice, simple day as far as market watching was concerned. The overnight session was straightforward, with initial weakness driven by Eurozon...
Wed, Feb 18 2015, 3:07 PM
This afternoon's release of the Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting make sense. They're filled with exactly the sort of stuff markets expec...
Wed, Feb 18 2015, 1:35 AM
The US version of 2015's massive bond market movement doesn't make for very riveting analysis. It's not the sort of thing that will be very satisfyin...
Tue, Feb 17 2015, 7:32 AM
The annoying sideways grind in bond markets will continue until we see whether or not Greece ends up leaving the EU. The EU doesn't want that and nei...
Tue, Feb 17 2015, 5:41 PM
This recap will largely be a reiteration of content from the Mid-Day article as there have been no material changes in fundamentals since then. In ge...
Tue, Feb 17 2015, 1:45 PM
On days like today, a majority of my time is devoted to staying on top of alerts and analysis for MBS Live . As such, this will be one of the few ...
Fri, Feb 13 2015, 7:32 AM
High-momentum trends can pause, reverse, or fizzle . More often than not, the early stages of all three of those options look exactly the same. It ...
Fri, Feb 13 2015, 4:36 PM
As expected/feared, the path of least resistance for bond markets has been that of weakness heading into the long weekend with big news waiting on the...
Thu, Feb 12 2015, 12:51 PM
The overnight session was scary for bond markets as 10yr yields rose to test the 2.04 technical level. Interestingly enough, trading went dead flat...
Thu, Feb 12 2015, 7:32 AM
The news that keeps coming out of Europe is just too good not to have been scripted by some secret society of brilliant comedians. The dialogue betwe...
Thu, Feb 12 2015, 5:03 PM
Bond markets were at their best levels since Monday heading into today's 1pm 30yr Bond auction (MBS prices don't reflect that only because of the roll...
Wed, Feb 11 2015, 12:34 PM
Today has turned out to be a total dud so far in terms of actionable information for traders. Although there's still technically time, we've seen abs...
Wed, Feb 11 2015, 7:32 AM
Europe is a tangled mess of politics and bureaucracy that puts anything else to shame. Why do I say this? First, because it's true. Second, and mor...
Wed, Feb 11 2015, 5:29 PM
The last few highlighted comments at the bottom of this page tell the story of the late-day headlines. The first one caught markets' attention:
RT...
Tue, Feb 10 2015, 12:22 PM
If I didn't know any better (and I might not), I'd guess that someone from Greece is calling up news organizations and pretending to be an EU official...
Tue, Feb 10 2015, 7:37 AM
Remember 2008 though the middle of 2011, or the 2nd half of 2013? Me neither, but I went back and read a few of my old posts and think I have a prett...
Tue, Feb 10 2015, 5:30 PM
Bond markets got the 3yr Treasury auction out of the way today. While it was noticeably positive for Treasuries, it was the least potent of the 3 in ...
Mon, Feb 9 2015, 12:56 PM
The most interesting news overnight was the reaffirmation from Greek leaders that the country is done with austerity, no matter the cost. At this poi...
Mon, Feb 9 2015, 7:34 AM
In many ways, the current tussle between Greece and its creditors is reminiscent of past iterations. There's some bluffing, posturing, lying, feigned...
Mon, Feb 9 2015, 7:16 PM
After Friday's aggressive sell-off, bond markets managed only a modest bounce back before acquiescing to even weaker levels by the close. There wer...
Fri, Feb 6 2015, 7:05 AM
Oh man... I'm about to say some crazy stuff . If I could go back in time one year and tell myself "hey, past self, in a year you're going to write a...
Fri, Feb 6 2015, 6:13 PM
In a real sense, today's bond market weakness was nothing more than a continuation of February's existing trend on steroids. Multiple asset classes h...
Fri, Feb 6 2015, 2:07 PM
This morning's MUCH -stronger than expected NFP hit bond markets while they were already on the back foot in terms of the February trend. It followe...
Thu, Feb 5 2015, 7:32 AM
If you're just getting caught up, here's the long and the short of yesterday's news from the ECB in relation to Greece-inspired Euro-drama.
The re...
Thu, Feb 5 2015, 5:57 PM
Last night, Treasuries attempted to play it safe ahead of the European session by rallying sharply on news they figured would have a big positive effe...
Wed, Feb 4 2015, 7:37 AM
For the first time in the history of the Day Ahead, I'm referencing an oil inventory report as a solid potential market mover. This is significant,...
Wed, Feb 4 2015, 4:39 PM
Unlike yesterday, which had a decent start and crappy conclusion, today's trading session began with bond markets at their weakest levels in more than...
Wed, Feb 4 2015, 1:38 PM
To make a long story short, bond markets have been correcting from their recent rally ever since Greece began correcting from their recent rout . ...
Tue, Feb 3 2015, 12:51 PM
10yr yields are up just more than 7bps to 1.75%. That's bad in the sense that 1.70 is an inflection point that would have been nice to hold, but s...
Tue, Feb 3 2015, 7:33 AM
First thing's first. Let's make a quick distinction between bond market components. When we talk about "incredible momentum," it has nothing to do...
Tue, Feb 3 2015, 5:11 PM
Bond markets began the day by putting in a repeat performance of yesterday's overnight and early morning hours. Both days say a 3-4 bp drift higher ...
Mon, Feb 2 2015, 12:33 PM
Overnight and early domestic trading were unkind to bond markets. Global PMI data was generally in line with expectations or slightly stronger. Tr...
Mon, Feb 2 2015, 7:23 AM
Another week, another chance for markets to express their feelings about European QE, Greek theater, and 'global growth concerns.' So far, these thin...
Mon, Feb 2 2015, 5:08 PM
At one point, today looked like it could be nearly as anticlimactic for bond markets as 2nd goal for the--well... never mind. Nothing is that antic...
Fri, Jan 30 2015, 7:32 AM
The last trading day of the month for bond markets is more interesting than average in its own right. Money managers are busy making sure their hol...
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