Wed, Dec 10 2014, 4:39 PM
For two days in a row, the Fed hasn't had a Fannie/Freddie 30yr buying operation , and that's been painfully evident in the underperformance of MBS c...
Tue, Dec 9 2014, 7:32 AM
Yesterday morning, we were hoping that bond markets would find near-term technical support from Friday's weakest levels. Today, we're hoping for a di...
Tue, Dec 9 2014, 5:09 PM
Admittedly there are far more than 2 reasons for anything in financial markets to do anything. But when it comes to "the why" behind the ability of...
Tue, Dec 9 2014, 1:01 PM
It's not that China isn't an important cog in the global economy, but the tendency for major media outlets to focus on it as some sort of central mark...
Mon, Dec 8 2014, 7:33 AM
Any time we see an Employment Situation report come in as strong as last Friday's, it causes some measure of concern for follow-through trading. In...
Mon, Dec 8 2014, 4:33 PM
European bond markets broke out to an early lead in the overnight session with Treasuries doing a great job of resisting the gains. It's not that U...
Mon, Dec 8 2014, 1:19 PM
There was a big drop in the S&P just after the noon hour, and it's being attributed to slumping energy shares or some such thing. Frankly, I haven'...
Fri, Dec 5 2014, 7:32 AM
This time last year when 10yr yields were at 2.86 the night before NFP, I remember thinking about where we might be by the end of 2013 and then about ...
Fri, Dec 5 2014, 4:14 PM
It's actually fairly impressive to see Fannie 3.5 MBS "only" down 11 ticks on a day when the jobs report came in at 321k vs 230k forecast. There wa...
Fri, Dec 5 2014, 1:05 PM
If you're just getting caught up with this morning's events, first thing's first: NFP was much stronger than expected (321k vs 230k forecast). As wit...
Thu, Dec 4 2014, 12:56 PM
Bond markets had a volatile reaction to this morning's European Central Bank press conference. Part of the problem is that Mario Draghi was seemingly...
Thu, Dec 4 2014, 7:32 AM
Remember a few of those NFP days earlier in 2014 when bond markets ended up having a totally counterintuitive reaction? (If you don't remember, but w...
Thu, Dec 4 2014, 5:04 PM
I haven't seen many days with as many different relevant considerations for bond markets, but if you don't really care about the details, the only im...
Wed, Dec 3 2014, 12:33 PM
Today's economic data hasn't had much of an effect on bond markets, but with the morning activity now in the rearview, the effects look slightly more ...
Wed, Dec 3 2014, 7:32 AM
The past two weeks have been the best and worst of times when it comes to bond markets and mortgage rates. While it is always nice to go on a run to ...
Tue, Dec 2 2014, 12:53 PM
The easiest way to facilitate a mid-day update today will be to simply copy and paste a morning update from MBS Live . Before I do that, and because...
Tue, Dec 2 2014, 7:32 AM
Bond markets love to "hide behind" seemingly important calendar events that aren't actually that important. Those events draw in more participation a...
Tue, Dec 2 2014, 5:40 PM
There have been some fairly silly suggestions floating around as to why bond markets have been taking lumps today, and they're risky because they do...
Mon, Dec 1 2014, 12:02 PM
It's been a mostly uneventful morning so far, at least for MBS. Overnight trading was generally supportive thanks to weaker PMIs abroad, Moody's cu...
Mon, Dec 1 2014, 7:32 AM
Between the healthy dose of domestic economic data, tradeflow considerations, and European Central Bank (ECB) Announcement, this week will set the ton...
Mon, Dec 1 2014, 6:19 PM
Heading into today, we knew the recent run to low rates would be a risk from a corporate issuance standpoint. The Day Ahead noted: " Last week's run ...
Fri, Nov 28 2014, 8:42 AM
I made some fantastic stuffing this year. Just like mom used to make, and probably very much like she'll make when we drive down to do the Thanksgivi...
Fri, Nov 28 2014, 1:28 PM
Heading into today, it stood to reason that the normal spat of supportive, compulsory bond buying that occurs at the end of the month would have alrea...
Wed, Nov 26 2014, 12:09 PM
It might not actually be on the calendar, but in almost every way that matters, the trading day is over for bond markets. The 11:30am 7yr Treasury ...
Wed, Nov 26 2014, 7:32 AM
Today exemplifies the week as a whole. All we can do is buckle up , hope for the best, and not sweat it too much if the rally stalls.
Reason bei...
Wed, Nov 26 2014, 3:59 PM
Nothing much has changed since the mid-day commentary because bond markets had already effectively "left the building" after the 11:30am Treasury ...
Tue, Nov 25 2014, 12:32 PM
With the increased amount of data on today's calendar, we've seen increased volatility, but it hasn't been too threatening so far. In fact, bond ma...
Tue, Nov 25 2014, 7:33 AM
Yesterday was a fairly solid day for bond markets. Although it suffered from decreased participation, there was still strong support at technical c...
Tue, Nov 25 2014, 5:16 PM
The day began in fine shape, especially in light of the stronger reading on GDP. European bond market strength remains at the heart of our ability to...
Mon, Nov 24 2014, 12:57 PM
Meaningful inputs have been few and far between for bond markets today. With Japanese markets closed, overnight Treasury trading got off to a late st...
Mon, Nov 24 2014, 7:33 AM
Past examples of Thanksgiving weeks vary when it comes to market behavior. There's no major bias toward gains or losses and the volatility doesn't ...
Mon, Nov 24 2014, 5:15 PM
During the 3.5-day Thanksgiving week, we expect to see a lack of participation in bond markets juxtaposed with condensed data and volatility. Data ...
Fri, Nov 21 2014, 12:50 PM
Overnight events amounted to nothing more than noise for US bond markets. Tough talk from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi did more to he...
Fri, Nov 21 2014, 7:30 AM
Have you ever had one of those awkward super early arrivals to an event? Did you wait in the lobby? Was the lobby even open? Did you hide the fact ...
Fri, Nov 21 2014, 5:52 PM
In the shadow of October 15th--by some measures, the most volatile day in the history of Treasury trading--everything that's followed has been exceedi...
Thu, Nov 20 2014, 12:20 PM
It's been a solid day for bond markets so far, with most of that solidness coming courtesy of a big correction to yesterday's European bond market w...
Thu, Nov 20 2014, 7:32 AM
Today is sorta nuts . If we listed out line items for all the European economic data, domestic economic data, Fed speakers, corporate bond issuance ...
Thu, Nov 20 2014, 5:49 PM
There was a metric ton of data on tap today, both at home and abroad. During the European session, most of the data was weaker. Given that Europe s...
Wed, Nov 19 2014, 12:48 PM
There has only been one story today for domestic bond markets, and that's been European bond markets! They tanked after one of Germany's most widel...
Wed, Nov 19 2014, 7:25 AM
In the October 29th policy statement, the Fed said " market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat" which is a reference to ...
Wed, Nov 19 2014, 5:18 PM
For all the potentially complicated conclusions that can follow something as wordy and important as FOMC Minutes, today ended up being fairly cut and...
Tue, Nov 18 2014, 7:32 AM
I haven't seen much fuss made over tomorrow's FOMC Minutes yet, and that mostly makes sense. After all, asset purchases were ended at that meeting, a...
Tue, Nov 18 2014, 5:08 PM
A clearly-defined break to another record high in stocks and another huge day for corporate debt issuance presented two significant headwinds for bo...
Mon, Nov 17 2014, 12:41 PM
Japan's surprising poor GDP miss was the main event in the overnight session, resulting in bond market strength right out of the gate. Although Tre...
Mon, Nov 17 2014, 7:32 AM
I thought for a few minutes about this week's headline. Normally, I'd highlight the key events or considerations, but apart from Wednesday's FOMC Mi...
Mon, Nov 17 2014, 5:20 PM
If you wanted to see any significant movement in bond markets today, you had to be tuned in before 10am. Even then, most of the drama occurred right ...
Fri, Nov 14 2014, 12:27 PM
This morning's Retail Sales report definitely didn't help make the case for a bond market rally. It's not that it beat expectations by much (only .3 ...
Fri, Nov 14 2014, 7:43 AM
It seems a bit oversimplified and a bit old-school to look to economic data as holding the key to a potential bond market rally. After all, economic ...
Fri, Nov 14 2014, 4:40 PM
Bond markets continue to put on a clinic in terms of avoiding anything meaningful or exciting . 3pm yields in 10yr Treasuries haven't varied by more...
Thu, Nov 13 2014, 12:35 PM
Bond markets were slightly weaker during Asian hours, but got their groove back during the European session. This wasn't so much a factor of economic...
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