Tue, Dec 23 2014, 4:56 PM
Measures of bond market volatility spiked this morning WELL before the 8:30am GDP reading. Of course a +5.0 GDP vs a 4.3% forecast will get all kinds...
Tue, Dec 23 2014, 1:00 PM
Despite an abundance of seemingly relevant economic data, volumes are merely on pace with yesterday, which was the slowest session in more than 3 mo...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 11:58 AM
It's a real snooze-fest out there, folks. Volumes were already dropping to nearly half of their recent average by Friday, and will be lucky to brea...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 7:33 AM
The last two weeks of December are not a time where most market participants are thinking about trading opportunistically. Rather, there tends to b...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 3:47 PM
It's rare that the day's MBS RECAP will be published this early in the day (and of course, I'll put out an update if things change significantly), but...
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 12:42 PM
The past two days saw a decisive bounce in Treasuries precipitated by what might have been a decisive bounce in European bond markets. As of this the...
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 7:43 AM
Congratulations! You've reached the end of 2014 in bond markets. Everything from here on out is simply the epilogue to an already-concluded story....
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 4:28 PM
Whether today had ended up positive or negative, the assessment would be the same. It strains credulity to consider, but when human beings that are n...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 12:14 PM
From time to time, the best way to recap market events through mid-day will be to revisit things that have already been written. Here's the first: M...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 7:49 AM
Where does yesterday's FOMC Announcement leave us in terms of the rate outlook? The same place we were before the FOMC Announcement!
The only thi...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 4:09 PM
Depending on where you want to draw the line between the overnight and domestic sessions, nothing really happened today. Bond markets were basically...
Wed, Dec 17 2014, 12:46 PM
Treasuries once again broke away from the pack in the overnight session and moved higher in yield. Cues from related markets didn't suggest that wea...
Wed, Dec 17 2014, 7:33 AM
Today's FOMC Announcement at 2pm is a bit of a puzzler, because it has the capability to be one of the more important recent announcements. One reaso...
Wed, Dec 17 2014, 4:53 PM
Today's FOMC Announcement and ensuing press conference caused significant volatility (albeit, within a historically narrow range) for bond markets. O...
Tue, Dec 16 2014, 12:32 PM
To be clear, bond markets are still in strongly positive territory this morning, though they're off their best levels seen just after 7am.
Volatil...
Tue, Dec 16 2014, 7:32 AM
Bond markets lost ground yesterday, which is notable in the context of recent events because other markets didn't necessarily agree. By that, I mean ...
Tue, Dec 16 2014, 4:14 PM
As Fannie 3.5 MBS pushed over 104 and 10yr yields moved down toward 2%, it became increasingly clear that the bond market rally required an ever-larg...
Mon, Dec 15 2014, 12:18 PM
Naturally, most headlines continue to credit oil for everything that's happening everywhere. That may be true in a roundabout way, but it's a harder ...
Mon, Dec 15 2014, 7:32 AM
The conventional wisdom regarding falling knives is to avoid trying to catch them. 2014's bond yields have been a quintessential example. At each ...
Fri, Dec 12 2014, 12:51 PM
It's impossible to get away from oil headlines today. They're everywhere. Even smart people are succumbing to the temptation of oversimplifying the ...
Fri, Dec 12 2014, 7:32 AM
When the variables informing trading decisions are more confusing, more diverse, and/or more numerous than normal, there's one old standby to fall bac...
Fri, Dec 12 2014, 5:19 PM
Good news! It seems that--thanks to some magical domino effect having to do with oil--that this week's market movements can't do anything else but co...
Thu, Dec 11 2014, 12:18 PM
Bond markets had an uneventful overnight session for the most part. Heading into the 7am hour, yields improved to their lowest levels of the morning ...
Thu, Dec 11 2014, 7:33 AM
Bond markets seemingly rallied rather impressively yesterday. In other words, the magnitude of the gains and levels achieved would have been impres...
Thu, Dec 11 2014, 5:18 PM
With 10yr yields less than half a bp lower and Fannie 3.5s and 3.0s a mere 1 tick lower, we're effectively unchanged to end the day. That's a victor...
Wed, Dec 10 2014, 12:54 PM
"Leak" is definitely one of those words that, if you say it enough, it starts to sound funny. One way to hear it pretty reliably is to tune in to the...
Wed, Dec 10 2014, 7:32 AM
Late in November, I suggested that the first week of December would give us the information needed to identify the trend that would carry us into the ...
Wed, Dec 10 2014, 4:39 PM
For two days in a row, the Fed hasn't had a Fannie/Freddie 30yr buying operation , and that's been painfully evident in the underperformance of MBS c...
Tue, Dec 9 2014, 7:32 AM
Yesterday morning, we were hoping that bond markets would find near-term technical support from Friday's weakest levels. Today, we're hoping for a di...
Tue, Dec 9 2014, 5:09 PM
Admittedly there are far more than 2 reasons for anything in financial markets to do anything. But when it comes to "the why" behind the ability of...
Tue, Dec 9 2014, 1:01 PM
It's not that China isn't an important cog in the global economy, but the tendency for major media outlets to focus on it as some sort of central mark...
Mon, Dec 8 2014, 7:33 AM
Any time we see an Employment Situation report come in as strong as last Friday's, it causes some measure of concern for follow-through trading. In...
Mon, Dec 8 2014, 4:33 PM
European bond markets broke out to an early lead in the overnight session with Treasuries doing a great job of resisting the gains. It's not that U...
Mon, Dec 8 2014, 1:19 PM
There was a big drop in the S&P just after the noon hour, and it's being attributed to slumping energy shares or some such thing. Frankly, I haven'...
Fri, Dec 5 2014, 7:32 AM
This time last year when 10yr yields were at 2.86 the night before NFP, I remember thinking about where we might be by the end of 2013 and then about ...
Fri, Dec 5 2014, 4:14 PM
It's actually fairly impressive to see Fannie 3.5 MBS "only" down 11 ticks on a day when the jobs report came in at 321k vs 230k forecast. There wa...
Fri, Dec 5 2014, 1:05 PM
If you're just getting caught up with this morning's events, first thing's first: NFP was much stronger than expected (321k vs 230k forecast). As wit...
Thu, Dec 4 2014, 12:56 PM
Bond markets had a volatile reaction to this morning's European Central Bank press conference. Part of the problem is that Mario Draghi was seemingly...
Thu, Dec 4 2014, 7:32 AM
Remember a few of those NFP days earlier in 2014 when bond markets ended up having a totally counterintuitive reaction? (If you don't remember, but w...
Thu, Dec 4 2014, 5:04 PM
I haven't seen many days with as many different relevant considerations for bond markets, but if you don't really care about the details, the only im...
Wed, Dec 3 2014, 12:33 PM
Today's economic data hasn't had much of an effect on bond markets, but with the morning activity now in the rearview, the effects look slightly more ...
Wed, Dec 3 2014, 7:32 AM
The past two weeks have been the best and worst of times when it comes to bond markets and mortgage rates. While it is always nice to go on a run to ...
Tue, Dec 2 2014, 12:53 PM
The easiest way to facilitate a mid-day update today will be to simply copy and paste a morning update from MBS Live . Before I do that, and because...
Tue, Dec 2 2014, 7:32 AM
Bond markets love to "hide behind" seemingly important calendar events that aren't actually that important. Those events draw in more participation a...
Tue, Dec 2 2014, 5:40 PM
There have been some fairly silly suggestions floating around as to why bond markets have been taking lumps today, and they're risky because they do...
Mon, Dec 1 2014, 12:02 PM
It's been a mostly uneventful morning so far, at least for MBS. Overnight trading was generally supportive thanks to weaker PMIs abroad, Moody's cu...
Mon, Dec 1 2014, 7:32 AM
Between the healthy dose of domestic economic data, tradeflow considerations, and European Central Bank (ECB) Announcement, this week will set the ton...
Mon, Dec 1 2014, 6:19 PM
Heading into today, we knew the recent run to low rates would be a risk from a corporate issuance standpoint. The Day Ahead noted: " Last week's run ...
Fri, Nov 28 2014, 8:42 AM
I made some fantastic stuffing this year. Just like mom used to make, and probably very much like she'll make when we drive down to do the Thanksgivi...
Fri, Nov 28 2014, 1:28 PM
Heading into today, it stood to reason that the normal spat of supportive, compulsory bond buying that occurs at the end of the month would have alrea...
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