Thu, Feb 12 2015, 12:51 PM
The overnight session was scary for bond markets as 10yr yields rose to test the 2.04 technical level. Interestingly enough, trading went dead flat...
Thu, Feb 12 2015, 7:32 AM
The news that keeps coming out of Europe is just too good not to have been scripted by some secret society of brilliant comedians. The dialogue betwe...
Thu, Feb 12 2015, 5:03 PM
Bond markets were at their best levels since Monday heading into today's 1pm 30yr Bond auction (MBS prices don't reflect that only because of the roll...
Wed, Feb 11 2015, 12:34 PM
Today has turned out to be a total dud so far in terms of actionable information for traders. Although there's still technically time, we've seen abs...
Wed, Feb 11 2015, 7:32 AM
Europe is a tangled mess of politics and bureaucracy that puts anything else to shame. Why do I say this? First, because it's true. Second, and mor...
Wed, Feb 11 2015, 5:29 PM
The last few highlighted comments at the bottom of this page tell the story of the late-day headlines. The first one caught markets' attention:
RT...
Tue, Feb 10 2015, 12:22 PM
If I didn't know any better (and I might not), I'd guess that someone from Greece is calling up news organizations and pretending to be an EU official...
Tue, Feb 10 2015, 7:37 AM
Remember 2008 though the middle of 2011, or the 2nd half of 2013? Me neither, but I went back and read a few of my old posts and think I have a prett...
Tue, Feb 10 2015, 5:30 PM
Bond markets got the 3yr Treasury auction out of the way today. While it was noticeably positive for Treasuries, it was the least potent of the 3 in ...
Mon, Feb 9 2015, 12:56 PM
The most interesting news overnight was the reaffirmation from Greek leaders that the country is done with austerity, no matter the cost. At this poi...
Mon, Feb 9 2015, 7:34 AM
In many ways, the current tussle between Greece and its creditors is reminiscent of past iterations. There's some bluffing, posturing, lying, feigned...
Mon, Feb 9 2015, 7:16 PM
After Friday's aggressive sell-off, bond markets managed only a modest bounce back before acquiescing to even weaker levels by the close. There wer...
Fri, Feb 6 2015, 7:05 AM
Oh man... I'm about to say some crazy stuff . If I could go back in time one year and tell myself "hey, past self, in a year you're going to write a...
Fri, Feb 6 2015, 6:13 PM
In a real sense, today's bond market weakness was nothing more than a continuation of February's existing trend on steroids. Multiple asset classes h...
Fri, Feb 6 2015, 2:07 PM
This morning's MUCH -stronger than expected NFP hit bond markets while they were already on the back foot in terms of the February trend. It followe...
Thu, Feb 5 2015, 7:32 AM
If you're just getting caught up, here's the long and the short of yesterday's news from the ECB in relation to Greece-inspired Euro-drama.
The re...
Thu, Feb 5 2015, 5:57 PM
Last night, Treasuries attempted to play it safe ahead of the European session by rallying sharply on news they figured would have a big positive effe...
Wed, Feb 4 2015, 7:37 AM
For the first time in the history of the Day Ahead, I'm referencing an oil inventory report as a solid potential market mover. This is significant,...
Wed, Feb 4 2015, 4:39 PM
Unlike yesterday, which had a decent start and crappy conclusion, today's trading session began with bond markets at their weakest levels in more than...
Wed, Feb 4 2015, 1:38 PM
To make a long story short, bond markets have been correcting from their recent rally ever since Greece began correcting from their recent rout . ...
Tue, Feb 3 2015, 12:51 PM
10yr yields are up just more than 7bps to 1.75%. That's bad in the sense that 1.70 is an inflection point that would have been nice to hold, but s...
Tue, Feb 3 2015, 7:33 AM
First thing's first. Let's make a quick distinction between bond market components. When we talk about "incredible momentum," it has nothing to do...
Tue, Feb 3 2015, 5:11 PM
Bond markets began the day by putting in a repeat performance of yesterday's overnight and early morning hours. Both days say a 3-4 bp drift higher ...
Mon, Feb 2 2015, 12:33 PM
Overnight and early domestic trading were unkind to bond markets. Global PMI data was generally in line with expectations or slightly stronger. Tr...
Mon, Feb 2 2015, 7:23 AM
Another week, another chance for markets to express their feelings about European QE, Greek theater, and 'global growth concerns.' So far, these thin...
Mon, Feb 2 2015, 5:08 PM
At one point, today looked like it could be nearly as anticlimactic for bond markets as 2nd goal for the--well... never mind. Nothing is that antic...
Fri, Jan 30 2015, 7:32 AM
The last trading day of the month for bond markets is more interesting than average in its own right. Money managers are busy making sure their hol...
Fri, Jan 30 2015, 5:29 PM
Nothing has materially changed from the Mid-Day recap, so for the nuts and bolts of today's rally, that would be the best place to get caught up:
...
Fri, Jan 30 2015, 1:13 PM
The overnight session was orderly and positive for Treasuries. Yields continued mechanically grinding lower from yesterday's bounce at 1.785 (10yr Tr...
Thu, Jan 29 2015, 12:46 PM
While there have been several economic events in the overnight and domestic sessions that seemingly imparted some momentum, bond markets are better de...
Thu, Jan 29 2015, 7:32 AM
So much of 2014 was spent building up to the notion of ECB QE and so much of the first 2 weeks of 2015 was dedicated to fully pricing it in that bon...
Thu, Jan 29 2015, 4:46 PM
"Inside day" is a good little piece of market jargon. It refers to a day of trading where prices, yields, or whatever you want to chart fall INSIDE ...
Wed, Jan 28 2015, 12:34 PM
I'm not sure why anyone is writing article headlines that reference the approaching Fed announcement. Does the Fed even matter right now? Or perha...
Wed, Jan 28 2015, 7:25 AM
With all the recent focus on Europe, and with no major surprises hanging in the balance for domestic monetary policy, it's easy to forget about the ...
Wed, Jan 28 2015, 4:52 PM
Today's FOMC Announcement resulted in one of the strangest market reactions in recent memory. Explanations for the various movements abound, and mo...
Tue, Jan 27 2015, 7:33 AM
Today brings a relative deluge of economic data compared to yesterday. Reports include Durable Goods, Case-Shiller Home Prices, New Home Sales, and...
Tue, Jan 27 2015, 4:46 PM
After briefly breaking above the 1.84% inflection point amid last week's ECB-related volatility, 10yr Treasury yields have been religiously leaning on...
Tue, Jan 27 2015, 1:16 PM
The overnight session was generally flat to slightly stronger for Treasuries. Early domestic trading was limited due to the snow storm in New York (t...
Mon, Jan 26 2015, 7:25 AM
It's more or less impossible that we'll see any chance in policy stance with this Wednesday's FOMC Announcement, but it's still on the radar as a rele...
Mon, Jan 26 2015, 5:10 PM
After two weeks of elevated volumes and activity, today hearkened back to old-fashioned Mondays . Participation was light, market movement was larg...
Mon, Jan 26 2015, 1:07 PM
The week is off to a fairly anticlimactic start, belying the initial volatility seen after the Greek elections early in the overnight session. 10yr y...
Fri, Jan 23 2015, 12:56 PM
You may have the market aphorism that it's easier to ride waves than to swim against them. The post-ECB bond market wave is still in force today wi...
Fri, Jan 23 2015, 7:34 AM
It would be nice if yesterday's European Central Bank announcement had come with an instruction manual that let markets know how to react and at what ...
Fri, Jan 23 2015, 5:14 PM
Some time between yesterday's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and this morning's open, market participants decided to interpret the QE progra...
Thu, Jan 22 2015, 7:25 AM
Today is one of those special days for financial markets where we finally come to an event with so much hype that it's a big deal no matter how it g...
Thu, Jan 22 2015, 5:29 PM
10yr yields rocketed from 1.94 to 1.81 after this morning's ECB QE announcement and then leveled off right in between (that's 1.875 for those of you p...
Thu, Jan 22 2015, 1:24 PM
By the time this morning's ECB QE announcement hit, there was little doubt about it's existence. Bond markets spent the overnight session continuin...
Wed, Jan 21 2015, 7:32 AM
This question has come up a lot recently, so let's discuss it. What follows will be my take on it, and I have no idea if it will be the right take. ...
Wed, Jan 21 2015, 5:23 PM
This may be the first time in the history of the MBS Commentary that Canada has made an appearance as a relevant market mover--let alone a headline ...
Wed, Jan 21 2015, 1:33 PM
Unexpected headlines have given markets plenty to digest this morning. German bond markets began pushing yields higher right from the start of the ...
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