Fri, Jan 30 2015, 5:29 PM
Nothing has materially changed from the Mid-Day recap, so for the nuts and bolts of today's rally, that would be the best place to get caught up:
...
Fri, Jan 30 2015, 1:13 PM
The overnight session was orderly and positive for Treasuries. Yields continued mechanically grinding lower from yesterday's bounce at 1.785 (10yr Tr...
Thu, Jan 29 2015, 12:46 PM
While there have been several economic events in the overnight and domestic sessions that seemingly imparted some momentum, bond markets are better de...
Thu, Jan 29 2015, 7:32 AM
So much of 2014 was spent building up to the notion of ECB QE and so much of the first 2 weeks of 2015 was dedicated to fully pricing it in that bon...
Thu, Jan 29 2015, 4:46 PM
"Inside day" is a good little piece of market jargon. It refers to a day of trading where prices, yields, or whatever you want to chart fall INSIDE ...
Wed, Jan 28 2015, 12:34 PM
I'm not sure why anyone is writing article headlines that reference the approaching Fed announcement. Does the Fed even matter right now? Or perha...
Wed, Jan 28 2015, 7:25 AM
With all the recent focus on Europe, and with no major surprises hanging in the balance for domestic monetary policy, it's easy to forget about the ...
Wed, Jan 28 2015, 4:52 PM
Today's FOMC Announcement resulted in one of the strangest market reactions in recent memory. Explanations for the various movements abound, and mo...
Tue, Jan 27 2015, 7:33 AM
Today brings a relative deluge of economic data compared to yesterday. Reports include Durable Goods, Case-Shiller Home Prices, New Home Sales, and...
Tue, Jan 27 2015, 4:46 PM
After briefly breaking above the 1.84% inflection point amid last week's ECB-related volatility, 10yr Treasury yields have been religiously leaning on...
Tue, Jan 27 2015, 1:16 PM
The overnight session was generally flat to slightly stronger for Treasuries. Early domestic trading was limited due to the snow storm in New York (t...
Mon, Jan 26 2015, 7:25 AM
It's more or less impossible that we'll see any chance in policy stance with this Wednesday's FOMC Announcement, but it's still on the radar as a rele...
Mon, Jan 26 2015, 5:10 PM
After two weeks of elevated volumes and activity, today hearkened back to old-fashioned Mondays . Participation was light, market movement was larg...
Mon, Jan 26 2015, 1:07 PM
The week is off to a fairly anticlimactic start, belying the initial volatility seen after the Greek elections early in the overnight session. 10yr y...
Fri, Jan 23 2015, 12:56 PM
You may have the market aphorism that it's easier to ride waves than to swim against them. The post-ECB bond market wave is still in force today wi...
Fri, Jan 23 2015, 7:34 AM
It would be nice if yesterday's European Central Bank announcement had come with an instruction manual that let markets know how to react and at what ...
Fri, Jan 23 2015, 5:14 PM
Some time between yesterday's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and this morning's open, market participants decided to interpret the QE progra...
Thu, Jan 22 2015, 7:25 AM
Today is one of those special days for financial markets where we finally come to an event with so much hype that it's a big deal no matter how it g...
Thu, Jan 22 2015, 5:29 PM
10yr yields rocketed from 1.94 to 1.81 after this morning's ECB QE announcement and then leveled off right in between (that's 1.875 for those of you p...
Thu, Jan 22 2015, 1:24 PM
By the time this morning's ECB QE announcement hit, there was little doubt about it's existence. Bond markets spent the overnight session continuin...
Wed, Jan 21 2015, 7:32 AM
This question has come up a lot recently, so let's discuss it. What follows will be my take on it, and I have no idea if it will be the right take. ...
Wed, Jan 21 2015, 5:23 PM
This may be the first time in the history of the MBS Commentary that Canada has made an appearance as a relevant market mover--let alone a headline ...
Wed, Jan 21 2015, 1:33 PM
Unexpected headlines have given markets plenty to digest this morning. German bond markets began pushing yields higher right from the start of the ...
Tue, Jan 20 2015, 12:02 PM
For bond markets, today has largely been about holding ground and retrenching. The most relevant example came during the overnight session--just befo...
Tue, Jan 20 2015, 7:32 AM
After trading in a narrow channel for the first three quarters of 2014, bond markets became increasingly volatile. The first three weeks of 2015 have...
Tue, Jan 20 2015, 4:28 PM
Anxiety and anticipation are in full supply as markets approach Thursday's exceptionally important ECB news. Last Friday, this anxiety took the form ...
Fri, Jan 16 2015, 7:40 AM
This chart was scaled based on everything that came before yesterday in order to see how big yesterday was by comparison. The red line is the Swiss F...
Fri, Jan 16 2015, 5:06 PM
Bond markets sold off today because they rallied so hard earlier this week. That is all*.
I mean, we could sit here and attempt to assign signific...
Fri, Jan 16 2015, 1:06 PM
Global financial markets have been engaged to the idea of sovereign QE from the European Central Bank for nearly a year. After yesterday's Swiss surp...
Thu, Jan 15 2015, 12:39 PM
The following is an excerpt from of an update that appeared this morning on MBS Live. Members will have already seen it.
All About the Franc, 'B...
Thu, Jan 15 2015, 7:33 AM
Yesterday was the most exciting day in bond markets in a long time. 10yr yields made it into the 1.7's, which had an altogether different feel than...
Thu, Jan 15 2015, 5:20 PM
When global financial markets are convulsing with uncertainty and anticipation, where can you find a safe, liquid place to park your money?
One ...
Wed, Jan 14 2015, 12:47 PM
It's a very simple, very awesome day so far for bond markets. The European Court of Justice news was great for peripheral nations (Italy, Spain, Po...
Wed, Jan 14 2015, 7:33 AM
By the time you read this, markets will already have had a chance to begin digesting the important preliminary assessment from the European Court of...
Wed, Jan 14 2015, 5:05 PM
10yr yields spent some time in the 1.7's today and Fannie 3.0s traded over 103. Those are two things that seemed outside the realm of possibility t...
Tue, Jan 13 2015, 12:11 PM
With the 10yr auction coming up in about an hour, yields find themselves slightly higher than yesterday's latest levels. Their first move overnight w...
Tue, Jan 13 2015, 7:31 AM
Yesterday morning, we discussed the technical outlook for bond markets in the context of "open options." In other words, the technical studies were...
Tue, Jan 13 2015, 5:03 PM
MBS and Treasuries both spent time trading on either side of unchanged today. The swings between the days highs and lows were bigger than normal , a...
Mon, Jan 12 2015, 12:26 PM
Stocks, oil, Euros, and other assets that bespeak growth and risk are weaker today while bond markets are stronger. The opposite was initially the ...
Mon, Jan 12 2015, 7:35 AM
In terms of the technical trends as of last week, domestic bond markets became more balanced by the end of the week. Before that, they were certainly...
Mon, Jan 12 2015, 5:14 PM
Treasuries were initially a bit weaker in the overnight session, but along with German Bunds, found their footing around 7am. MBS and Treasuries cros...
Fri, Jan 9 2015, 7:44 AM
Markets don't always read from a script. Beyond that, there just aren't many past examples of moves like the one at the beginning of 2015, but so far...
Fri, Jan 9 2015, 5:16 PM
European stocks tanked today. The move was underway within minutes of the morning's payrolls data which initially looked like it might give domestic ...
Fri, Jan 9 2015, 1:26 PM
It's been a surprisingly busy morning for financial markets, and very little of that has to do with NFP. Bonds were slightly stronger overnight and...
Thu, Jan 8 2015, 7:41 AM
At this point, it's getting more and more tempting to just give up the typical pre-NFP hullabaloo. I mean really, how many more "all eyes on NFP" hea...
Thu, Jan 8 2015, 4:12 PM
Dear HUD,
First of all, thanks for dropping annual MI. That's cool and all, but the way you're rolling this out is causing confusion. The Mortgag...
Thu, Jan 8 2015, 1:14 PM
Once again, bond markets find themselves in weaker territory simply due to the corrective forces that follow strong rallies, and once again, resilient...
Wed, Jan 7 2015, 12:28 PM
Domestic economic data, as expected, was passed over in favor of more meaningful forces. At the moment, those forces include Eurozone economic condit...
Wed, Jan 7 2015, 5:03 PM
It actually turned out to be a rather boring day for the parts of the bond market with which we normally concern ourselves. Treasuries and conformi...
Wed, Jan 7 2015, 4:49 AM
Think of all those times that we began discussing FOMC events days, weeks, and even months in advance. Indeed there may be no other greater market mo...
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