Fri, Oct 31 2014, 12:46 PM
This will largely be a reprint of an update that appeared on MBS Live this morning. Reason being: that update covered the impact of big, surprising n...
Fri, Oct 31 2014, 7:32 AM
No single method of market analysis is always better than another, which is why it's always better to consider as many as possible and look for agreem...
Fri, Oct 31 2014, 5:01 PM
10yr yields are heading out the door at 2.335--a very significant level considering it had been the lowest closing yield of the year until October 8...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 12:02 PM
"Jobless Claims remained in the 280's and GDP came in at 3.5 vs a 3.0 forecast. So naturally, bond markets are adding to yesterday's weakness."
Th...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 7:29 AM
GDP reports come in three flavors: advance, preliminary, and final. Today is the 'advance' reading for the 3rd quarter and hence the first look at Q3...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 4:59 PM
If the official end of QE is to be an inspirational moment for bond markets in the bigger picture, you wouldn't know it based on how trading has gone ...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 12:11 PM
MBS and Treasuries are at their weakest levels in 3 weeks ahead of this afternoon's FOMC Announcement. That's really all there is to it. We haven't ...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 7:32 AM
I worked really hard just now on avoiding the use of the cliche headline opener "all eyes." You see that a lot (no pun intended) when it comes to thi...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 5:03 PM
Nine times out of ten, any conversation about trading volume in bond markets is pointless and dangerous when it comes to considering potential mor...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 12:13 PM
Treasuries and MBS have seen modest volatility within a modest range this morning. The stage was set with overnight weakness resulting in weaker op...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 7:35 AM
Beginning last Thursday, Treasuries and MBS have increasingly gone through the motions of consolidation ahead of tomorrow's FOMC Announcement. Intere...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 5:43 PM
Despite one solid attempt to bounce back to unchanged levels this morning, bond markets spent the day in weaker territory. For most of the day this ...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 12:15 PM
On Friday, European considerations pulled bond markets into weaker territory after a draft of the bank stress test results showed numerous banks with ...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 7:32 AM
This week's headliner will be Wednesday afternoon's FOMC Announcement. While this isn't one of the Fed Announcements that includes the economic proje...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 4:34 PM
The week got off to a woefully uneventful start. Like many Mondays in terms of trading activity, this one may as well not have happened. The only ...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 7:22 AM
We approached Thursday's session with a mainstream viewpoint and alternative, more bullish possibilities to consider. The mainstream viewpoint (amo...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 4:37 PM
Earlier today, competing short term trends and considerations made for several salient swings between gains and losses. While MBS and Treasuries nev...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 1:18 PM
If today's bond market movements were a ball game, it would be the kind you like to see, with numerous lead changes , no runaway victory, and the hom...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 7:32 AM
Yesterday morning's notes presented a mostly bullish case for bond markets with today as the first potential break from the corrective/consolidative...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 5:33 PM
Today was decidedly negative for bond markets. 10yr yields found no solace in "the gap" from 2.26 to 2.28 and instead moved right through to 2.30. ...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 1:20 PM
Treasury yields moved steadily into the important gap between 2.26 and 2.28 this morning and had been holding their ground just under 2.28 for nearly ...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 7:36 AM
It's been a pretty boring and consolidative week for bond markets so far, so let's have some fun. What follows is essentially a bullish case for bond...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 4:47 PM
When you see the word " consolidation " in market analysis--especially with respect to movement in securities prices/yields--it might as well read "co...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 1:32 PM
Here's a two-part chart that does a nice job of framing today's activity in both a longer and shorter term perspective.
As you can see, we ...
Tue, Oct 21 2014, 12:10 PM
This morning's day ahead commentary asked "will bonds continue to defy stocks?"
The answer appears to be an emphatic " yes !"
The S&P is up...
Tue, Oct 21 2014, 7:34 AM
Will bond markets be able to hold their ground if equities make more meaningful gains today? I don't know but they did yesterday, and it was the b...
Tue, Oct 21 2014, 5:14 PM
It turned out to be an exceedingly uncomplicated day for Treasuries by the time US trading hours rolled around. Before that, yields moved sharply hig...
Mon, Oct 20 2014, 12:47 PM
Treasuries were moderately stronger overnight resulting in positive opening levels for MBS. Both continued to improve until the 9:30am stock market o...
Mon, Oct 20 2014, 7:29 AM
With a few more days between us and last Wednesday's epic bond market snowball, bigger media outlets have begun pondering said epicness. That's not n...
Mon, Oct 20 2014, 4:59 PM
Treasuries and MBS didn't end up making much progress today. Fannie 3.5s are only 2 ticks higher than they were at the close on Friday and 10yr yield...
Fri, Oct 17 2014, 7:36 AM
It's tempting to draw conclusions based on what seem like clear signals in markets.
Clearly stocks and bonds have been in tune with each other ...
Fri, Oct 17 2014, 5:34 PM
Most days with modest gains in MBS would see similarly modest improvements in rate sheets. While there were a handful of positive reprices in the a...
Fri, Oct 17 2014, 1:21 PM
Today has been the calmest day of the week so far, which isn't saying too much considering the previous 3 days were the most volatile of the year. 10...
Thu, Oct 16 2014, 12:14 PM
MBS and Treasuries are essentially at their weakest levels of the past two days, fighting to hold that ground against a rebounding stock market and ...
Thu, Oct 16 2014, 7:32 AM
One blessing and curse associated with being human is our innate desire to make sense of the world around us. Yesterday's bond market rally was--in m...
Thu, Oct 16 2014, 5:31 PM
After the sorts of big movements seen yesterday, it's not uncommon to get an equally big movement back in the other direction. That may well have bee...
Wed, Oct 15 2014, 8:40 PM
Today was intense. We'll probably be talking about it for years to come. While there have been bigger days of outright movement in bond markets, you...
Wed, Oct 15 2014, 7:36 AM
If you've ever watched a survival show where campers set up pots and pans tied on a string to sound an alarm for approaching bears, etc., then the u...
Wed, Oct 15 2014, 2:24 PM
If you're just tuning in, bond markets are having a career day with 10yr yields currently operating near 2.06 after trading in the 2.2's yesterday and...
Tue, Oct 14 2014, 12:33 PM
Although bond markets were already heading toward their best recent levels by Friday night, the move over the weekend was on another level altogether....
Tue, Oct 14 2014, 7:34 AM
The tendency for bond yields to move in concert with stock prices had been spottier before September's FOMC Announcement, but has been over since then...
Tue, Oct 14 2014, 5:42 PM
As we discussed in this morning's Week Ahead , bond markets are highly attuned to the current fate of equities markets. This can be viewed either fr...
Fri, Oct 10 2014, 11:31 AM
The only economic data reported this morning was Import/Export Prices, which gives investors a gauge on inflation. Import prices posted a better than ...
Fri, Oct 10 2014, 8:21 AM
The past few days got me thinking. I've been reading some articles and even some analysis from respected sources that I feel has missed the mark on w...
Thu, Oct 9 2014, 11:27 AM
It's the same story for stocks and bonds right now. Yesterday's impressive rally was extended overnight in both cases, and is now pulling back as the...
Thu, Oct 9 2014, 9:11 PM
Yesterday’s FOMC induced rally continued overnight and into the early morning. The benchmark 10 year treasury note fell to a low of 2.28 at the open, ...
Thu, Oct 9 2014, 7:31 AM
NOTE: Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS " roll " tonight, meaning October coupons will no longer be traded and November coupons will take over as the...
Wed, Oct 8 2014, 12:43 PM
Treasuries had a fairly uneventful overnight session--this time paying much more attention to the movement in European bond markets (not the case yest...
Wed, Oct 8 2014, 7:32 AM
Bond markets began acting odd yesterday, but in a good way. It began in the overnight session where US Treasuries outperformed European bond markets....
Wed, Oct 8 2014, 4:43 PM
There was a chance that much of the recent rally in bond markets had been due to the expectation that today's Fed Minutes would offer a softer side of...
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