Wed, Nov 26 2014, 12:09 PM
It might not actually be on the calendar, but in almost every way that matters, the trading day is over for bond markets. The 11:30am 7yr Treasury ...
Wed, Nov 26 2014, 7:32 AM
Today exemplifies the week as a whole. All we can do is buckle up , hope for the best, and not sweat it too much if the rally stalls.
Reason bei...
Wed, Nov 26 2014, 3:59 PM
Nothing much has changed since the mid-day commentary because bond markets had already effectively "left the building" after the 11:30am Treasury ...
Tue, Nov 25 2014, 12:32 PM
With the increased amount of data on today's calendar, we've seen increased volatility, but it hasn't been too threatening so far. In fact, bond ma...
Tue, Nov 25 2014, 7:33 AM
Yesterday was a fairly solid day for bond markets. Although it suffered from decreased participation, there was still strong support at technical c...
Tue, Nov 25 2014, 5:16 PM
The day began in fine shape, especially in light of the stronger reading on GDP. European bond market strength remains at the heart of our ability to...
Mon, Nov 24 2014, 12:57 PM
Meaningful inputs have been few and far between for bond markets today. With Japanese markets closed, overnight Treasury trading got off to a late st...
Mon, Nov 24 2014, 7:33 AM
Past examples of Thanksgiving weeks vary when it comes to market behavior. There's no major bias toward gains or losses and the volatility doesn't ...
Mon, Nov 24 2014, 5:15 PM
During the 3.5-day Thanksgiving week, we expect to see a lack of participation in bond markets juxtaposed with condensed data and volatility. Data ...
Fri, Nov 21 2014, 12:50 PM
Overnight events amounted to nothing more than noise for US bond markets. Tough talk from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi did more to he...
Fri, Nov 21 2014, 7:30 AM
Have you ever had one of those awkward super early arrivals to an event? Did you wait in the lobby? Was the lobby even open? Did you hide the fact ...
Fri, Nov 21 2014, 5:52 PM
In the shadow of October 15th--by some measures, the most volatile day in the history of Treasury trading--everything that's followed has been exceedi...
Thu, Nov 20 2014, 12:20 PM
It's been a solid day for bond markets so far, with most of that solidness coming courtesy of a big correction to yesterday's European bond market w...
Thu, Nov 20 2014, 7:32 AM
Today is sorta nuts . If we listed out line items for all the European economic data, domestic economic data, Fed speakers, corporate bond issuance ...
Thu, Nov 20 2014, 5:49 PM
There was a metric ton of data on tap today, both at home and abroad. During the European session, most of the data was weaker. Given that Europe s...
Wed, Nov 19 2014, 12:48 PM
There has only been one story today for domestic bond markets, and that's been European bond markets! They tanked after one of Germany's most widel...
Wed, Nov 19 2014, 7:25 AM
In the October 29th policy statement, the Fed said " market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat" which is a reference to ...
Wed, Nov 19 2014, 5:18 PM
For all the potentially complicated conclusions that can follow something as wordy and important as FOMC Minutes, today ended up being fairly cut and...
Tue, Nov 18 2014, 7:32 AM
I haven't seen much fuss made over tomorrow's FOMC Minutes yet, and that mostly makes sense. After all, asset purchases were ended at that meeting, a...
Tue, Nov 18 2014, 5:08 PM
A clearly-defined break to another record high in stocks and another huge day for corporate debt issuance presented two significant headwinds for bo...
Mon, Nov 17 2014, 12:41 PM
Japan's surprising poor GDP miss was the main event in the overnight session, resulting in bond market strength right out of the gate. Although Tre...
Mon, Nov 17 2014, 7:32 AM
I thought for a few minutes about this week's headline. Normally, I'd highlight the key events or considerations, but apart from Wednesday's FOMC Mi...
Mon, Nov 17 2014, 5:20 PM
If you wanted to see any significant movement in bond markets today, you had to be tuned in before 10am. Even then, most of the drama occurred right ...
Fri, Nov 14 2014, 12:27 PM
This morning's Retail Sales report definitely didn't help make the case for a bond market rally. It's not that it beat expectations by much (only .3 ...
Fri, Nov 14 2014, 7:43 AM
It seems a bit oversimplified and a bit old-school to look to economic data as holding the key to a potential bond market rally. After all, economic ...
Fri, Nov 14 2014, 4:40 PM
Bond markets continue to put on a clinic in terms of avoiding anything meaningful or exciting . 3pm yields in 10yr Treasuries haven't varied by more...
Thu, Nov 13 2014, 12:35 PM
Bond markets were slightly weaker during Asian hours, but got their groove back during the European session. This wasn't so much a factor of economic...
Thu, Nov 13 2014, 7:33 AM
Sometimes after the last Treasury auction of any given week, we see a so-called "relief rally" where traders who were cautious, hesitant, or otherwi...
Thu, Nov 13 2014, 4:49 PM
Bonds saw a rare post-8am rally today. Even though there were European considerations potentially contributing to the rally, recent positivity has be...
Wed, Nov 12 2014, 12:23 PM
Today's activity in bond markets leaves rates perfectly flat , on average , during the month of November. In other words, on a chart of 10yr yields...
Wed, Nov 12 2014, 7:40 AM
As bond markets get back to business today, the afternoon's 10yr Note auction will be important one way or another . Actually, that could be said wi...
Wed, Nov 12 2014, 4:57 PM
Overnight trading was positive for bond markets with 10yr yields falling to 2.319 as they crossed into the domestic session. Slumping stocks and Euro...
Mon, Nov 10 2014, 12:41 PM
There was active trading overnight among a diverse group of market participants. Most importantly, that group included what's known as "real money" b...
Mon, Nov 10 2014, 7:27 AM
With bonds closed on Tuesday for Veterans Day, market participation should be lighter than normal today. That said, it won't be as light as it would ...
Mon, Nov 10 2014, 4:34 PM
NOTE: It's "Notification Day" for Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS. That means that November coupons will no longer be traded after today and thus ...
Fri, Nov 7 2014, 12:42 PM
Bond market resilience last Friday in the face challenging news suggested buyers might be planning an attack for the near future. It would have been ...
Fri, Nov 7 2014, 7:32 AM
From the moment yields began drifting higher following the mid-October rally, absolutely nothing new has happened for bond markets. Trading levels ha...
Fri, Nov 7 2014, 5:13 PM
S&P futures--the best and most liquid snapshot of the broader US stock market--closed yesterday about 2 points higher than they are heading into the c...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 12:21 PM
This morning's main event was the post-announcement press conference with ECB (European Central Bank) President Mario Draghi. It made for some volati...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 7:22 AM
The actual geometric shape that would be required to account for all the different considerations affecting bond markets would be one of those long do...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 5:19 PM
With this morning's ECB events merely causing volatility that resulted in essentially no change in trading levels, the most interesting aspect of th...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 12:50 PM
While today had a chance to kick off the bigger potential volatility expected during the second half of the week, an uneventful reaction to election...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 7:32 AM
( NOTE : BLS and NFP are used somewhat interchangeably below, but the numbers in the charts are actually BLS's PRIVATE payrolls as NFP includes too mu...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 4:43 PM
Tomorrow morning brings the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference with ECB Pres. Mario Draghi. While nothing new is expected ...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 12:18 PM
Treasuries were stronger overnight as substantially downgraded Eurozone growth forecasts pulled yields lower. Interestingly (or 'suspiciously') eno...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 7:43 AM
I haven't mentioned mid-term elections until today, which is a pretty fair deal considering their potential market impact. It may even be giving them...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 5:00 PM
Bond markets traded an "inside day" today, meaning that the entirety of today's trading ranges in MBS and Treasuries fell "inside" the highs and lows ...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 12:12 PM
The overnight session got off to a slow start for US bond markets as Japan was out on holiday. This is important not only because overnight Treasury ...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 7:26 AM
After last week's anticlimactic reaction to the end of QE3, the current week offers up several places to look for the inspiration owed to bond markets...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 5:13 PM
In the context of a fairly narrow trading range by historical standards, bond markets had a volatile day. The start of the overnight session saw the ...
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