Thu, Nov 13 2014, 7:33 AM
Sometimes after the last Treasury auction of any given week, we see a so-called "relief rally" where traders who were cautious, hesitant, or otherwi...
Thu, Nov 13 2014, 4:49 PM
Bonds saw a rare post-8am rally today. Even though there were European considerations potentially contributing to the rally, recent positivity has be...
Wed, Nov 12 2014, 12:23 PM
Today's activity in bond markets leaves rates perfectly flat , on average , during the month of November. In other words, on a chart of 10yr yields...
Wed, Nov 12 2014, 7:40 AM
As bond markets get back to business today, the afternoon's 10yr Note auction will be important one way or another . Actually, that could be said wi...
Wed, Nov 12 2014, 4:57 PM
Overnight trading was positive for bond markets with 10yr yields falling to 2.319 as they crossed into the domestic session. Slumping stocks and Euro...
Mon, Nov 10 2014, 12:41 PM
There was active trading overnight among a diverse group of market participants. Most importantly, that group included what's known as "real money" b...
Mon, Nov 10 2014, 7:27 AM
With bonds closed on Tuesday for Veterans Day, market participation should be lighter than normal today. That said, it won't be as light as it would ...
Mon, Nov 10 2014, 4:34 PM
NOTE: It's "Notification Day" for Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS. That means that November coupons will no longer be traded after today and thus ...
Fri, Nov 7 2014, 12:42 PM
Bond market resilience last Friday in the face challenging news suggested buyers might be planning an attack for the near future. It would have been ...
Fri, Nov 7 2014, 7:32 AM
From the moment yields began drifting higher following the mid-October rally, absolutely nothing new has happened for bond markets. Trading levels ha...
Fri, Nov 7 2014, 5:13 PM
S&P futures--the best and most liquid snapshot of the broader US stock market--closed yesterday about 2 points higher than they are heading into the c...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 12:21 PM
This morning's main event was the post-announcement press conference with ECB (European Central Bank) President Mario Draghi. It made for some volati...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 7:22 AM
The actual geometric shape that would be required to account for all the different considerations affecting bond markets would be one of those long do...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 5:19 PM
With this morning's ECB events merely causing volatility that resulted in essentially no change in trading levels, the most interesting aspect of th...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 12:50 PM
While today had a chance to kick off the bigger potential volatility expected during the second half of the week, an uneventful reaction to election...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 7:32 AM
( NOTE : BLS and NFP are used somewhat interchangeably below, but the numbers in the charts are actually BLS's PRIVATE payrolls as NFP includes too mu...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 4:43 PM
Tomorrow morning brings the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference with ECB Pres. Mario Draghi. While nothing new is expected ...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 12:18 PM
Treasuries were stronger overnight as substantially downgraded Eurozone growth forecasts pulled yields lower. Interestingly (or 'suspiciously') eno...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 7:43 AM
I haven't mentioned mid-term elections until today, which is a pretty fair deal considering their potential market impact. It may even be giving them...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 5:00 PM
Bond markets traded an "inside day" today, meaning that the entirety of today's trading ranges in MBS and Treasuries fell "inside" the highs and lows ...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 12:12 PM
The overnight session got off to a slow start for US bond markets as Japan was out on holiday. This is important not only because overnight Treasury ...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 7:26 AM
After last week's anticlimactic reaction to the end of QE3, the current week offers up several places to look for the inspiration owed to bond markets...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 5:13 PM
In the context of a fairly narrow trading range by historical standards, bond markets had a volatile day. The start of the overnight session saw the ...
Fri, Oct 31 2014, 12:46 PM
This will largely be a reprint of an update that appeared on MBS Live this morning. Reason being: that update covered the impact of big, surprising n...
Fri, Oct 31 2014, 7:32 AM
No single method of market analysis is always better than another, which is why it's always better to consider as many as possible and look for agreem...
Fri, Oct 31 2014, 5:01 PM
10yr yields are heading out the door at 2.335--a very significant level considering it had been the lowest closing yield of the year until October 8...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 12:02 PM
"Jobless Claims remained in the 280's and GDP came in at 3.5 vs a 3.0 forecast. So naturally, bond markets are adding to yesterday's weakness."
Th...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 7:29 AM
GDP reports come in three flavors: advance, preliminary, and final. Today is the 'advance' reading for the 3rd quarter and hence the first look at Q3...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 4:59 PM
If the official end of QE is to be an inspirational moment for bond markets in the bigger picture, you wouldn't know it based on how trading has gone ...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 12:11 PM
MBS and Treasuries are at their weakest levels in 3 weeks ahead of this afternoon's FOMC Announcement. That's really all there is to it. We haven't ...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 7:32 AM
I worked really hard just now on avoiding the use of the cliche headline opener "all eyes." You see that a lot (no pun intended) when it comes to thi...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 5:03 PM
Nine times out of ten, any conversation about trading volume in bond markets is pointless and dangerous when it comes to considering potential mor...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 12:13 PM
Treasuries and MBS have seen modest volatility within a modest range this morning. The stage was set with overnight weakness resulting in weaker op...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 7:35 AM
Beginning last Thursday, Treasuries and MBS have increasingly gone through the motions of consolidation ahead of tomorrow's FOMC Announcement. Intere...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 5:43 PM
Despite one solid attempt to bounce back to unchanged levels this morning, bond markets spent the day in weaker territory. For most of the day this ...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 12:15 PM
On Friday, European considerations pulled bond markets into weaker territory after a draft of the bank stress test results showed numerous banks with ...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 7:32 AM
This week's headliner will be Wednesday afternoon's FOMC Announcement. While this isn't one of the Fed Announcements that includes the economic proje...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 4:34 PM
The week got off to a woefully uneventful start. Like many Mondays in terms of trading activity, this one may as well not have happened. The only ...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 7:22 AM
We approached Thursday's session with a mainstream viewpoint and alternative, more bullish possibilities to consider. The mainstream viewpoint (amo...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 4:37 PM
Earlier today, competing short term trends and considerations made for several salient swings between gains and losses. While MBS and Treasuries nev...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 1:18 PM
If today's bond market movements were a ball game, it would be the kind you like to see, with numerous lead changes , no runaway victory, and the hom...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 7:32 AM
Yesterday morning's notes presented a mostly bullish case for bond markets with today as the first potential break from the corrective/consolidative...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 5:33 PM
Today was decidedly negative for bond markets. 10yr yields found no solace in "the gap" from 2.26 to 2.28 and instead moved right through to 2.30. ...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 1:20 PM
Treasury yields moved steadily into the important gap between 2.26 and 2.28 this morning and had been holding their ground just under 2.28 for nearly ...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 7:36 AM
It's been a pretty boring and consolidative week for bond markets so far, so let's have some fun. What follows is essentially a bullish case for bond...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 4:47 PM
When you see the word " consolidation " in market analysis--especially with respect to movement in securities prices/yields--it might as well read "co...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 1:32 PM
Here's a two-part chart that does a nice job of framing today's activity in both a longer and shorter term perspective.
As you can see, we ...
Tue, Oct 21 2014, 12:10 PM
This morning's day ahead commentary asked "will bonds continue to defy stocks?"
The answer appears to be an emphatic " yes !"
The S&P is up...
Tue, Oct 21 2014, 7:34 AM
Will bond markets be able to hold their ground if equities make more meaningful gains today? I don't know but they did yesterday, and it was the b...
Tue, Oct 21 2014, 5:14 PM
It turned out to be an exceedingly uncomplicated day for Treasuries by the time US trading hours rolled around. Before that, yields moved sharply hig...
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